Category: Horse Racing Tips

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Epsom Derby Day Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Oaks day proved to be extremely profitable despite Ihtimal failing to reach the frame in the big race. Taghrooda (5-1) more than covered our stakes on the Godolphin filly and we also scored with Thistle Bird (7-2), French Navy (13-2) and Abseil (5-2). I hope that some of you had them linked up in doubles and trebles!

It is going to be difficult to follow that on Derby day but we’ll do our best. At the time of writing, the going is something of a mystery. It was drying out to good to firm on Friday evening but the forecasts are for heavy thundery rain tomorrow so it’s pretty much anybody’s guess. The safest option is probably to keep the soft ground horses on your side.

William Haggas has his stable in great form and saddles two in the opener (just to complicate things!). Of the two, I prefer the filly Flippant who has twice battled back to win races that it would have been easier to lose. She was past and looked beaten at Haydock last autumn but refused to give and switched around the leaders to get back up and win. She displayed the same qualities in winning over a mile at Chepstow last time and I think the mile and a quarter will be right up her street.

Not many two-year-olds get completely shut off in the home straight and still get up to win on the bridle. Baitha Alga did exactly that at the May meeting and could present Frankie Dettori with a Derby day winner in the Woodcote Stakes. She was quickly away and did everything right at Chester so should handle the Epsom downhill run without any problems.

Cirrus Des Aigles looks a class above his rivals in the Coronation Cup and should prove a very popular winner. He has already beaten Treve this season and it’s hard to imagine any of his rivals doing that. There seems to be confidence behind Flintshire but he’ll need to improve to beat the eight-year-old.

I previewed the Derby earlier in the week and believe that the Chester Vase could prove to have been a decent trial. A (very) long time ago I watched Quest For Fame beat Belmez in the same race and they proved to be pretty useful. Having gone for Orchestra (each-way) it would be foolish not to have a small bet on Romsdal at 28-1 after Mr G won the Oaks today in such fine style. We still have our ante-post bet on Kingston Hill so hopefully on of them will sneak a place at least.

Flippant 1.35 Epsom at 8-1 Paddy Power

Baitha Alga 2.05 Epsom at 11-4 Coral, Stan James

Cirrus Des Aigles 2.40 Epsom at Evens 888Sport

Kingston Hill 4.00 Epsom 10-1*

Orchestra 4.00 Epsom 16-1*

Romsdal 4.00 Epsom 28-1 BetVictor

*Ante-post

 

 

 

Epsom Friday Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

It is Oaks day on Friday at Epsom and the supporting card provides plenty of additional interest. Ihtimal carries our hopes in the classic with our 20-1 ante-post selection down to less than half of those odds. I still believe she is excellent each-way value at around 10-1 and expect to see her price shorten before the off.

The support for Marvellous has meant that Taghrooda has eased out to 4-1 and she is my idea of the biggest threat to the Godolphin filly. John Gosden suffered a near-miss with Kingman in the 2000 Guineas before gaining compensation in Ireland and he has another live classic contender here. She may ease out towards 5-1 and I’ll be disappointed if she doesn’t make the frame.

Thistle Bird is a great favourite of the Roger Charlton stable and she can bounce back to form in the opening Princess Elizabeth Stakes. She won this prize 12 months ago and looked as though she needed the outing when only sixth at York last time. Frankie Dettori was not hard on her once her chance had gone and I expect the mare to gain revenge on Odeliz and Mango Diva who both finished ahead of her that day.

Tres Coronas did us a favour when winning at Chester last month and again ran well behind Clever Cookie at York. His handicap mark has risen as a result and I just prefer the bottom weight Air Pilot in the second race at 2.10. Ralph Beckett’s horse has had only three starts but looked value for more last time when he hit the front too soon.

Gregorian is the best on form in the Diomed Stakes but I am just put off by his lack of a recent outing. He usually goes well fresh but French Navy and Windhoek may have a fitness advantage in a tricky little contest. I just feel that French Navy offers better value at 9-2 than Gregorian at 5-2.

Abseil was beaten by the draw at Chester last time when his fate was sealed by missing the break. He did well to get to within give lengths of the heavily backed Here Comes When and should enjoy the step up to a mile in the 3.20. He has been backed ante-post for the Royal Hunt Cup so ought to win this if he is to justify that support.

Thistle Bird 1.35 Epsom at 3-1 Ladbrokes

Air Pilot 2.10 Epsom at 8-1 William Hill

French Navy 2.45 Epsom at 9-2 Bet365

Abseil 3.20 Epsom at 9-4 Coral, Totesport

Ihtimal 4.00 Epsom at 9-1 William Hill

Taghrooda 4.00 Epsom at 4-1 William Hill

 

Epsom Derby 2014 Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Derby market has been dominated for months by Aidan O’Brien’s Australia, although we can expect to see his price drift towards 2-1 as the race nears. The fact that Ballydoyle run their usual mob of horses raises the usual questions and Ryan Moore complicated things further by choosing Geoffrey Chaucer over Chester Vase winner Orchestra.

Australia does have the best form in the book with his third in the 2000 Guineas but I wouldn’t be going overboard to back him at silly prices. Camelot came here after winning the Guineas in workmanlike fashion but it turned out to be a weak Derby. This year’s race is hard to weigh up but at least there is a decent turn-out.

The race won on a disqualification by Fascinating Rock is open to all forms of interpretation. The winner was not suited by the slow gallop, the runner-up Ebanoran quickened impressively but the vibes from the stable are weak. Geoffrey Chaucer didn’t get a great run up the rail but did no more than stay on to my eyes and I cannot see why he is suddenly all the rage.

The Chester Vase looked as though Orchestra was about to emerge as a strong second favourite for the Derby when he cruised around the home turn to take up the running. Whether it was greenness or lack of stamina I don’t know but he wandered in the closing stages and just held off Romsdal. If you had frozen the tape at the home turn you’d have said Orchestra would win by five lengths. I am still inclined to support him at an each-way price in preference to his stable companions.

I believe that Romsdal was flattered to get so close and I don’t like Western Hymn. He put in a laboured performance last time and I’m not convinced that he’s up to this task. The Grey Gatsby’s French Derby (I still don’t believe it is worthy of the name over a mile and a quarter) has convinced some scribes that the Dante form is top class. I felt that True Story ran like a non-stayer while Arod showed his inexperience and could be a Leger prospect.

Our only surviving ante-post bet is on Kingston Hill. The saving grace with him is that Roger Varian has his stable in great form. He won’t mind a bit of cut in the ground either but he is not certain to stay. The Lingfield Trial looked distinctly ordinary so we’ll add Orchestra to Kingston Hill and hope to upset the favourite.

Kingston Hill at 10-1 (ante-post)

Orchestra at 16-1 (Paddy Power)

Epsom Oaks 2014 Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Regular readers of this column will know that I have pinned my colours firmly to Ihtimal for the Epsom Oaks some time ago. I followed the filly as a two-year-old and was convinced that she was given an ill-judged ride when third on her final start.

She came out in Dubai and blitzed her rivals in the UAE Guineas and Oaks but still failed to capture the imagination of British punters and was available at double figure prices in the build-up to Newmarket. She ran a cracking race on the day but could not quite get to the front two. She more than covered our ante-post advice at 16-1 for the Guineas and we are clutching our 20-1 Oaks vouchers in anticipation of another big run on Friday.

Her pedigree, running style and dosage index all suggest that she will get the mile and a half. Silvestre De Sousa must be wondering exactly what he did to deserve being dropped for the classic in favour of Kieren Fallon but strange things are happening with Godolphin these days. Ihtimal has always struck me as an easy-moving filly that will handle Epsom and I wouldn’t put anyone off having another go at around 10-1 each-way.

Taghrooda is the only other filly that I would have entertained for this race but I missed the value with her. I wrote a lengthy article about the maiden race she won last autumn from which six or seven horses can out and won next time. By the time she reappeared at Newmarket for the Pretty Polly she was already down to around 6-1 and those odds were promptly halved after her easy success.

I believe that she has eased simply because the odds were a little cramped and she is my biggest concern. I’m always wary of Irish classic winners running in the Oaks or Derby. It always feels like an after-thought to me and I also felt that Marvellous was being scrubbed along far too early at the Curragh to be comfortable on the Epsom Downs. Tarfasha is still not a certain runner while connections ponder the conditions and none of the others have done anything to suggest that they can win a classic.

Amazing Maria has not raced this season but it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise to see her run into a place.

Ihtimal (Epsom Oaks) at 9-1 William Hill

Nottingham Wednesday Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

With the Epsom Derby meeting on the horizon, we are faced with pretty modest entertainment for the early part of the week.

Apart from the usual musical chairs among the jockeys, the Derby picture has not really changed in recent weeks with all eyes on the much-hyped Australia. It will be interesting to see whether Ryan Moore elects to partner Chester Vase winner Orchestra or the seemingly more fancied Geoffrey Chaucer.

Wednesday’s Nottingham card sees the unexpected reappearance of Remote in handicap company. I must admit that I never expected to see him run again outside of Group company, let alone over a mile. John Gosden pulled him out of the weakest looking Group 3 in living memory at Sandown last week rather than risk him on the soft ground. The going is good to soft at Nottingham but I’m hoping that his class will see him overcome both the distance and ground.

The Rectifier ran well when third to Yourartisonfire in a competitive race at Haydock but he does not want it any softer while Fort Bastion was second in a York handicap. He only lost out by a short head there to Navajo Chief and had previously won the Thirsk Hunt Cup. Even so, it would be disappointing to see Remote’s colours lowered in this grade.

James Doyle partners him and he also teams up with Bragging for Sir Michael Stoute in the 4.20 race. Interestingly, she meets her Lingfield conqueror Etaab on worse terms and I think that the Haggas filly will come out on top again. The Haggas team are flying and he had six winners from eight runners on Sunday and Monday. I liked the attitude of this filly at Lingfield last time where she quickened all the way to the line and I think she may have too much toe for the Stoute horse.

I don’t usually concern myself too much with Apprentice Handicaps but I expect Rockweiller to follow up his recent Ayr victory in the last. He was under pressure some way out but kept finding more and was eventually eased down to a three and a half-length winning margin. He is up 8lbs but the jockey can claim 3lb so the seven-year-old should be up to the task. He is also a course and distance winner having won here in 2011 off an identical mark.

Remote 3.50 Nottingham

Etaab 4.20 Nottingham

Rockweiller 5.20 Nottingham

 

Newmarket Saturday Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Wonderstruck (11-4) kept us in profit on Friday when eclipsing the £2.6 million colt Hydrogen. It will be interesting to see where they go next with Qatar Racing’s record purchase but we are not quite talking Snaafi Dancer just yet!

Tomorrow offers a glut of tricky handicaps and stakes races at Newmarket, York and Haydock. There are some very competitive fields, in total contrast to the Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown on Thursday night. I think that must be a contender for the weakest Group 3 race in living memory and it must have been very frustrating for the race planners.

I was surprised by the decision to pull out Remote after Hillstar had already been withdrawn, especially after John Gosden had taken a chance with Kingman last week at the Curragh. He was rewarded there with a classic victory.

Top Tug reminded us just how much Sir Michael Stoute’s horses can improve from their first run of the season and I’m looking to Rye House to do the same tomorrow. He won impressively at York last season but never made it back to the track. He did not get the clearest of runs at York on his return behind Clever Cookie but showed enough to warrant support at Newmarket tomorrow. Soft ground won’t bother him and it is just a matter of whether or not he is good enough to win off a mark of 98.

My other selection for Newmarket is more speculative. I’m taking a chance on Picture Dealer in the sprint, although I do have slight reservations about the ground. He ran a race packed full of promise when finishing in midfield at York first time out and he looks just the sort to bag a nice prize this season. He did win on soft ground at Brighton in 2012 but his most recent victories have come on a faster surface.

York looks fiendishly difficult so I’m going to bypass that meeting and look to Haydock instead. The seven furlong race looks quite a hot contest with the likes of Tawhid and Garswood entered. They are both talented horses who have yet to fulfil their potential. The same cannot be said of Eton Forever who is a real seven-furlong specialist and looks the safest option at around 9-2.

Eton Forever 2.40 Haydock at 9-2 Totesport

Picture Dealer 3.00 Newmarket at 16-1 Totesport, Ladbrokes

Rye House 3.35 Newmarket at 3-1 Paddy Power