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Sacred Elixir Just The Tonic in Caulfield Guineas

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October in Melbourne means having sunscreen and thermal underwear at the ready as anything can happen weather-wise, and the Caulfield Guineas is no exception.

On the eve of the first million-dollar race of the Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival – the AUD $1 million Ladbrokes Caulfield Guineas (1600m) – the Caulfield track is rated a good (3), but cooler conditions and showers are forecast prior to the first race.

Expect the track to remain in the good (3-4) range, while the rail will be in the true position for the 10-race card. Fingers crossed, the track should provide an even chance for on-pace and run-on horses.

Good medicine for the Guineas

Punters couldn’t scribble the name of Kiwi gelding Sacred Elixir into their black books quick enough after his stirring win in the Guineas Prelude (1400m) here two weeks ago. Parked off the speed by Damian Lane, he gathered the leaders up with ease.

Yes, Impending’s win in the Stan Fox (1500m) at Rosehill rated stronger, but there are two knocks on the Godolphin colt – he’s drawn in 10 and is making his first start at Caulfield, which has brought better horses undone than this promising Lonhro colt. A total of 11 of the past 14 winners have come from single digit gates.

Thousand reasons to stick with Foxplay

The sheer weight of numbers should mean at least one of the Sydney-siders pinches the AUD $500,000 Schweppes Thousand Guineas for the 3yo fillies, and it’s hard to find a knock against Chis Waller’s eye-catching filly Foxplay.

She cruised home in the G2 Furious (1200m) at Randwick before finding a hole late to dart through to take out the G2 Tea Rose (1400m) three weeks ago. With Hugh Bowman aboard and the perfect draw from barrier 5, the $3.70 available on William Hill still offers about half a point of value. Fellow Sydney horse Global Glamour looks a logical pick for the quinella.

Winx, and you’ll miss it

In 1939, Ajax was sent out a 1-40 (or $1.025) favourite to win the Rawson Stakes at Rosehill. He faced just two rivals – Spear Chief and Allunga. The former duly ended Ajax’s hopes of a 19th successive win in what is widely recognised as the greatest upset in Australian turf history.

Does Winx face a similar fate in the G1 $600,000 Caulfield Stakes? Almost certainly not. One of the mare’s rivals, Black Heart Bart, has already captured a pair of G1s this spring (and both at Caulfield) but is untried over 2000m, while He Or She’s connections are assured $54,000 for third. From a betting perspective, best to watch this one.

Strike on the counter

In contrast to the Caulfield Stakes, the field for the G1 $500,000 Toorak Handicap is stacked with value. Four of the past five winners have come through the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes and have been third-up. Counterattack was the beaten favourite in that race but stuck on nicely and can easily bounce back here.

He’s Our Rokkii is a deserved favourite, but the inside draw this late in the day isn’t the best spot to be. In contrast, Counterattack will jump from gate 8 with the country’s best jockey James McDonald aboard for Chris Waller.

BetCircaGuineas.2-sacredelixir

Superstar Mare Tops The Billing On Guineas Day

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From the moment the final sirens sound in the weekend AFL and NRL Grand Finals, the Australian sporting psyche shifts to the track for the business end of the 2016 Spring Racing Carnival. While things wrap-up in NSW with this Saturday’s Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes at Randwick, the serious spring racing is just cranking up south of the border, starting at Caulfield.

Guineas Day is for the purists. The racing is black-type from top to bottom, the stars of the turf are out in force and the yobbos and D-listers are still a week away from making their carnival debut. The 3yos take centre stage with the running of the Thousand Guineas and Caulfield Guineas. Cox Plate contenders will tune-up in the Caulfield Stakes while 13 of the country’s better milers will contest the Toorak Handicap.

Bias – what bias?

All three of Melbourne’s Spring Carnival venues feature vastly different layouts. The Caulfield track, operated by the Melbourne Racing Club (MRC), is a triangular-shaped layout, comprising three straights with a total circumference of 2080 metres and a finishing straight of 367 metres. Track bias has been a persistent issue. Last season’s MRC Carnival was almost reduced to farce with the track rating vastly different on the back section (slow) compared to the home straight (good). So far, so good this spring, with the track racing evenly in the recent Memsie and Underwood Stakes meetings.

Watch the gate, mate

It’s absolutely crucial to consider the rail position and barrier draw for races over specific distances at Caulfield. There are just short chutes of 200m from both the 1400m and 1600m starts. If the rail is out more than 3m, it’s bloody tough for the backmarkers even if the track is favouring off-pace runners. In contrast, barrier draws aren’t terribly important from the sprint starts (1000m, 1100m and 1200m) or the 2000m start. We’ll talk about the 2400m start of the Caulfield Cup next week.

She’s back

Guineas Day marks the return to Melbourne of the undoubted superstar of Australian thoroughbred racing. 2015 Cox Plate winner and reigning horse of the year Winx hasn’t been defeated since running second to Gust Of Wind in the 2015 Australian Guineas at Randwick. She’s since won her past 11, all at Group level, taking her winnings north of AUD $7 million. Unfortunately, the 5yo mare is likely to face just two rivals in the G1 Caulfield Stakes, but that field will include Black Heart Bart as he shoots for a third Group 1 title for the spring.

Tosen targets Toorak

One of the more intriguing runners on the card is Japanese import Tosen Stardom. Now in the care of reigning premier trainer Darren Weir, the 5yo entry was being aimed at the Cox Plate, but a leg wound suffered while being floated to Sydney for a George Main Stakes battle against Winx forced Weir to scratch him. Weir is now setting Tosen Stardom for middle-distance features like Saturday’s Group 1 Toorak Handicap (1600m) given the time lost to build his fitness base for the 2000m races. He’ll start on the top line of betting alongside Bon Aurum and He’s Our Rokkii.

Big fields, big interest

The nation’s best 3yo milers have turned out in force for the AUD $1 million Caulfield Guineas and AUD $500,000 Thousand Guineas for the fillies. A 14-horse field will contest the day’s feature where Impending for Team Godolphin remain a $4.40 favourite despite drawing gate 10. Hawkes Racing’s Divine Prophet ($4.80) and Kiwi colt Sacred Elixir at ($6.50) drew 1 and 7 respectively. Foxplay from the all-conquering Chris Waller stable will start a $2.60 top pick in the Thousand Guineas.

*All quoted odds in this article are from Caulfield Guineas sponsor, Ladbrokes.

Doncaster Racing: Will Idaho Deliver in the 2016 St Leger?

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Doncaster Racing’s St Leger has long since been considered by horse racing aficionados and betting enthusiasts as one of the “Jewels in the Crown” of the flat season. This Group 1 encounter at Doncaster will be watched by thousands trackside, millions more around the UK and indeed around the globe. It is one of the most popular races with punters in September and this years’ race will be no different. Some of the finest three-year-old fillies and colts will be on show and the key word for all punters will be “value”.

In the past few seasons it has been tough to find Derby winners in contention when it came to the St Leger, with the one notable exception being Camelot in 2012 that finished runner-up to Encke. So just where is the value in this race, and where should you be putting your money?

Where is the Value?

Well value is subjective with punters, but if you are looking for a strong short priced contender then the 2016 St Leger at Doncaster will not disappoint you. Idaho looks set to not only start as favourite this Saturday but looks likely to be at least Evens and possibly odds on currently standing at around 4/5 with most firms, with Skybet and Betfair currently being a standout 5/6.

As it stands the fifteen runner field looks really competitive should Idaho start to struggle, but seeing as the horse looked so impressive last time out at York in the Great Voltigeur stakes then that is hard to see happening. What was so impressive about that performance was how the race was run. Idaho was held up early on and entered the final 2 furlongs with plenty to do.

However, if there is one thing an Aidan O’Brien horse is noted for when it comes to major races, it’s being well prepared! Idaho travelled well throughout that race and won by a length and a half. The market for the St Leger reacted accordingly, and the odds for Idaho to land the “double” were immediately cut to 6/4, and they have steadily fallen since as more and more punters view this horse as being the one to beat.

The Muntahaa Threat

This years’ race is not just about one horse though, and there are a few other contenders that will attract attention as the race grows near. It will be interesting to see what happens to horses like Muntahaa, for example, who currently stands second favourite and is a best priced 11/2 with several firms including 888sport, Betfred and William Hill.

So what of Muntahaa’s chances and can he repeat his recent good performance at Chester where he won from a handicap of 108? Many people seem to think that he has a great chance and the market seems to think so too. The American horse Red Verdon and Housesofparliament are two other contenders with the latter coming a close second to Idaho in the Betway Great Voltigeur last month.

Once again trained by Aidan O’Brien, this is a mount that could well come up trumps on Saturday at Doncaster. So what of Red Verdon? Recent handicap wins at Chester and Haydock and a creditable performance in the Derby seem to give the horse a decent shot here. On the minus side though is the fact that the St Leger is 1 mile 6 furlongs and 132 yards (2,937 metres), and that could prove to be a stiff test for Red Verdon, plus trainer Ed Dunlop has been cautious about the horses’ chances.

He stated that the horse had been suffering with health issues of late and that it has been difficult to get the horse ready for the Doncaster race. How much do we read into that? Well one thing is for sure come Saturday, when they come under orders he will certainly be in it to win it!

Cheltenham Day One

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Roll up roll up Cheltenham is finally back. After the devastation of last year opening day where Annie Power fell and a crazy amount of multiples went down the drain, punters will be hoping that history doesn’t repeat itself on Day one of the 2016 Cheltenham Festival.

Roll up Min, Douvan, Vroom Vroom Mag and Annie Power. This years “nailed on” multiple. We however are not entirely convinced. Min was smashed antepost from 100/1 down to 7/4 after demolishing a few low grade fields in Ireland. Annie Power has only been out once where she did the same, ran against two yaks and won at 1/20 with her head in her chest.

 

Douvan and Vroom Vroom Mag have strong credentials. Douvan is possibly the best jumps horse around currently, realistically so long he jumps, he wins. This is why the Coral 50/1 offer (even tho only for a £1) is a decent offer. Not got a Coral account? Now you have no excuse what so ever.

 

Vroom Vroom Mag runs in the egg and spoon grade one against the mares and from what we’ve seen she’ll just have to jump around to win also.

We firmly believe Min should be taken on, we just haven’t seen enough to suggest she’s a stone cold cert as the odds suggest. What to take her on with though? Thats the tough one. York hill has recently been well backed due to rumours Ruby Walsh might ride him, we find that hard to believe, but if he does that a massive indicator as to Min’s realistic chances in the race. The 11/2 currently available might not be around come the start of the day tomorrow. We will be looking to lay Min, just cant have it winning the Supreme, no sir.

The Arkle is a fascinating race, we firmly believe Douvan wins, but if there is any mistake or he doesn’t participate, Vaniteux is the obvious each way bet to nothing. Currently had 11/2 with Betway. We’ve had a good go each way at slightly bigger prices so, should Douvan win we make a tiny profit, but if he messes up somehow, Vaniteux should be there to pick up the pieces.

Cheeky each way accumulator:

YorkHill – Supreme  5/1William Hill

Vanitieux – Arkle 5/1 William Hill

The New One –  Champion Hurdle 6/1 William Hill

Pollypeachum – Mares 6/1 William Hill

£10 ew will return £250

LETS DO THIS

 

Horse Racing Preview – Monday 18th May

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

There is horse racing action on turf at Redcar, Leicester and Windsor on Monday and we have tips at all three meetings.

The 3.50 at Redcar sees a very quick reappearance for Desert Law who finished third at York last week. We made him a speculative each-way selection in a big field and he stuck on well enough after looking to hold every chance at the furlong pole. It is interesting that he turns out again so quickly with Graham Lee taking over in the saddle. He may have seen too much daylight that day as he is not the easiest horse to win with. The big danger looks to be Noble Asset who was a good second at Doncaster last time.

The 7.05 race at Windsor has only attracted three runners but Silver Wings looks good value at around even money. He bounced out smartly and made all here on his debut but missed a beat at the start at Chester. He soon made up the ground and looked set to win at the furlong pole only to be out-battled by Rah Rah. That could turn out to be very decent form and he is preferred to Soapy Aitken.

In the 7.35 race, Roger Varian runs Tazffin, a well-bred maiden who was second at Newmarket to Irish Rookie on her debut last season. That filly was second in the French 1000 Guineas this spring while Tazffin’s dam was the useful Tarfshi, winner of the Pretty Polly Stakes in Ireland. Varian has decided to run her in a hood on Monday so she may have her quirks but most of her rivals have never seen a racecourse before.

At Leicester, there is a fascinating handicap at 7.45. Richard Fahey was overshadowed at York by Mark Johnston last week but did finally get on the score-sheet on Friday and has had two more winners since. He saddles impressive Musselburgh winner, Third Time Lucky.

He made all to slam Go Dan Go on the Scottish track and looks very leniently treated here on a mark of 79. The runner-up has since won twice, last time by five lengths off a mark of 74. There are dangers, particularly Godolphin’s Muqarred and the John Gosden-trained Occult, but 9-2 looks a good price for the Fahey runner.

Desert Law 3.50 Redcar @3-1 Ladbrokes

Silver Wings 7.05 Windsor @11-10 Betfair

Tazffin 7.35 Windsor @2-1 Bet365

Third Time Lucky 7.45 Leicester @9-2 Ladbrokes

Sha Tin 16th May Tips!

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

HONG KONG RACING SATURDAY 16 MAY 2015

SHA TIN

Hong Kong Wrap Up

Back to back meets on a Saturday but we will be back to Sunday next week with some great racing leading into some very high class Group racing the following week so stick with it and enjoy what is heading our way. Not an easy card today but the last four races certainly look full of some excellent talent and we should be getting collects in those races. Singapore is the main focus this weekend in this part of the world and we have some great Hong Kong raiders who should make their mark once again in this International Group Meet and I really do like their chances.

In the 4th Leg of the Global Sprint Challenge we have Lucky Nine-Aerovelocity and Rich Tapestry and I believe we will go very close to trifecting this race if not the exacta. You can throw in No 5 Zac Spirit for the added exotic selection.

In race 10 we have Military Attack and Dan Excel. Dan Excel won this race last year and has been working up very well leading into this and does look primed for today but you cannot leave out Military Attack who has looked a bit under his normal self recently but on his best form will certainly go close here.

Both races look exciting and the Hong Kong raiders should prove to be very hard to hold out here.

Enjoy the form this weekend at Sha Tin and Singapore and above all good luck.

 

Track and Conditions: Turf C Course with the exception of races 1 and 10 which are on the All Weather Dirt Track.

 

Expected Weather: Mainly cloudy with a few showers and a top temperature of 31 degrees. The wind will be from the south at about the 30 Km/h mark but occasionally gusting up to 40Km/h which will aid closers with a tailwind down the straight but more so on the turf than the AWT.

 

 Best Bet: Race 6 No 1 Athena Baby

Best Value: Race 8 No 7 Sergeant Titanium

Best Exotic Races: 7-8-9-10

Quaddie:-

Race 7: 7-10-9-1 Race 8: 6-7 Race 9: 5-2-8-7 Race 10: 7-5-1-2-12

 

Race 1: — Time: 5.00am GMT—Distance: 1200m—Class 5-     AWT

Top Pick: No 3 Dragon Energy

Value Selection: No 6 Joy Together

Exotic Inclusions: No 2 Super King Star and No 1 Palepale

 

Race Overview

 

This is the most difficult race that I have had to look at all season so for me it is not the type of race you want to get involved in at all but having said that we may get lucky. Dragon Energy drops back in class today and his last run at this class produced a nice win on this surface over this distance with a similar weight to what he carries today. Comes up with a nice draw in gate three and should be given every chance with Zac Purton in the saddle. Joy Together dropped back in class last start and should have improved as he was not too far away at his previous starts at class four. However he gave ground entering the straight and may very well have had a few issues but was unable to be scoped as he was fractious. May prove to overlook that run and give him a bit of a chance here at decent odds.

 

 

Race 2: — Time: 5.30am GMT—Distance: 1000m—Class 4

Top Pick: No 14 Horse Supremo

Selection: No 9 Golden Bauhinia

Exotic Inclusions: No 6 Panang Hall and No 2 Sugar / No 4 Mr Wright

 

Race Overview

 

Horse Supremo does appear to go best on the All Weather Track however he does possess good gate speed and has came up with a nice draw in gate 12 which should see him in a nice position throughout the running down the grandstand rail and can sneak into the finish with a bit of a chance if he can hold on over the concluding stages. Golden Bauhinia it’s been a fair while since he carried a weight as light as this and it has to put him in a decent position down the Sha Tin straight which is his main course and distance. His form has been reasonable this season without winning and not too far away recently considering he has not had much of a draw but comes up with gate 10 today which will help him get down the grandstand rail and should be well positioned in the running.

 

 

Race 3: — Time: 6.00am GMT—Distance: 2200m—Class 5

Top Pick: No 4 Win Chance

Value Selection: No 10 High Speed Metro

Exotic Inclusions: No 8 Sweet Bean and No 9 Smart Guy

 

Race Overview

 

Win Chance looks to have found a bit of form since dropping back to this class and his last two runs have been quite solid with a 2nd followed up with a nice win last start over the 2000m at Sha Tin. Has placed on two occasions this season over this distance all be it at Happy Valley. If he holds form he should run well today. High Speed Metro has put together a few nice runs recently and won over this distance three starts back all be it at Happy Valley at this class but appears to be holding form with two good 2nd’s since. He has trained on well and still looks well weighted and has to be a consideration once again today at current nice each way odds.

 

 

 

Race 4: — Time: 6.30am GMT—Distance: 1400m—Class 4

Top Pick: No 2 Run Forrest

Value Selection: No 3 Ah Bo

Exotic Inclusions: No 9 Beauty Ahead and No 10 Chevalier Star

 

. Race Overview

 

Run Forrest showed good improvement to win at his third start in Hong Kong over this distance last start. As a result he goes up in the weights but would not have to improve too much to give this a good shake as well. Suited by the draw in gate 6 and has Zac Purton in the saddle. Ah Bo looks very close to breaking his Hong Kong duck as he has been placed on five occasions this season and has gone very close at the last two occasions. Drawn wide but he retains his last start hoop and he can close and should be getting home hard once again today.

 

Race Overview

 

   Race 5: — Time: 7.00am GMT—Distance: 1200m—Class 3

Top Pick: No 1 Sun Jewellery

Value Selection: No 6 Lucky Bubbles

Exotic Inclusions: No 7 Spice Sure and No 4 Star Of Bond

 

Race Overview

 

Sun Jewellery having his first start in Hong Kong and looks to have the ability to go well first up as his trails have been good and all have been with race day hoop in Joao Moreira in the saddle. Comes to Hong Kong with decent Victorian form and put together a couple of wins there. Drawn wide but does possess decent gate speed and is expected to cross and be in a decent position in the running. Lucky Bubbles just the one start in Hong Kong and it was for a nice closing 3rd over the 1000m from an outside draw which was not really suitable over the straight course. Comes up with a nice draw today in gate 4 and retains Brett Prebble in the saddle and does look a touch of value as he has trained on nicely as well.

 

 

Race 6: — Time: 07.35am GMT—Distance: 1600m—Class 4

Top Pick: No 1 Athena Baby

Value Selection: No 5 Winnam

Exotic Inclusions: No 10 Glorious Ryder and No 3 Fighting Boy

 

Race Overview

 

Athena Baby has certainly improved leaps and bounds at his last two starts which he won well with Joao Moreira in the saddle. He retains the mount today and should get a nice trail in the running from gate 2. Only has to carry the weight here to be another very solid chance looking at this field. Winnam won over this distance five starts back and has had to shoulder extra weight since then. Stuck on well last start for a good third and does look a bit of an each way chance today with Zac Purton back in the saddle.

 

 

Race 7: — Time: 8.05am GMT—Distance: 1600m—Class 2

Top Pick: No 7 Celestial Smile

Value Selection: No 10 Club Life

Exotic Inclusions: No 9 Selkirk Star and No 1 Apollo’s Choice

 

Race Overview

 

Celestial Smile is far too consistent to leave out here. He has had 14 starts in Hong and has not been out of a place which is most amazing and Joao Moreira has been on him more times than not. Carried a light weight last start and ran a nice 2nd. Up a touch in the weights as a result of his consistency but still looks in ok. Comes up with a nice draw and should get a good trail in the running. Looks a very good chance if you can get each way odds but he may very well be a bit unders with Joao in the saddle. Club Life rarely runs a bad race, a consistent type and more times than not he is at each way odds and looks fairly well placed once again today. Up a touch in the weights but still looks ok for his 3rd start at class 2.

 

Race 8: — Time: 8.35am GMT—Distance: 1280m—Class 3

Top Pick: No 6 Holmes Legend

Value Selection: No Sergeant Titanium

Exotic Inclusions: No 11 Cash Courier and No 13 Monsieur Mogok

 

Race Overview

 

Holmes Legend does not stay in form for too long but he did run a nice 3rd over this distance last start and Joao Moreira has jumped straight on board today which gives you the impression that he should run well once again today as he still looks in well at the weights. Sergeant Titanium has shown to be an improving type and went up to this class two starts back. Went well on the first occasion for a nice 3rd but looked to have issues last start when he was found to be lame in the right front leg. He certainly was not happy and refused to be scoped. Has worked well since and should be back on track today. Looks value on his previous form. Interesting to see that Joao Moreira has gone off him and jumped straight onto Holmes Legend. However he has a very good replacement in Brett Prebble “The Master of the Weave ” 🙂 in the saddle.

 

 

Race 9: — Time: 9.10pm GMT—Distance: 1400m— Class 3

Top Pick: No 5 Amazing Kids

Value Selection: No 2 Why Why

Exotic Inclusions: No 8 Super Talent and No 7 Laugh Out Loud

 

Race Overview

 

Amazing Kids just the one start in Hong Kong and it was for a very nice closing win over the 1200m. Was to step up to the 1400m which does look right up his ally last start but was found to be sweating up a bit and as a result was withdrawn as he did look to have a fever. All good since then and track work has been spot on. Drawn well to suite and Joao Moreira jumps straight into the saddle. Why Why has only been out of a place on one occasion since arriving in Hong Kong and that was for a 4th. Up in distance today but has been closing off very hard recently over the 1200m and this just may suite. He is certainly weighted at his best but does come across as a decent chance here.

 

Race 10: — Time: 9.45pm GMT—Distance: 1200m—Class 1

Top Pick: No: 7 Dehere’s The Love

Value Selection: No 5 Master Kochanwong

Exotic Inclusions: No 1 Domineer and No 2 Access Years / No 12 Pablosky

 

                                                         Race Overview

 

A fair few chances here once again but Dehere’s The Love has been lightly races this season but is in cracking form and really does appreciate this surface. Comes up with a nice draw in gate 4 and retains Joao Moreira in the saddle. Only has to stay in form to give this a real shake once again and his track work does indicate that. Master Kochanwong has been going through the classes well and had a crack at group racing last start, found it a bit rich but still ran a very nice race. Up in the weights but still looks in well against this field and has to come under consideration today as he has came up with a nice draw in gate 5 and Douglas Whyte is back in the saddle.