Category: Horse Racing Tips

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Ascot Saturday Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The race scheduling is baffling again this weekend with top quality racing at Ascot, Lingfield and Haydock. As an avid fan of the flat, I am going to pass over Haydock’s jumps card including the Swinton Hurdle. They could easily move it to one of the recent bank holidays when there was very mediocre stuff on offer on the level.

Handicaps dominate proceedings at Ascot and I have to admit that the course proved a bit of a bogey meeting last year (with the exception of Royal Ascot). Whereas seven furlong handicaps used to be specialist races they now seem to be a dime a dozen. The Victoria Cup is the feature event tomorrow with the usual suspects gathered for the extended sprint distance.

You could fancy a dozen horses here and still not find the winner so it’s definitely not a race to get heavily involved in. I was kicking myself for not supporting Glen Moss last time, especially as Ryan Moore rode one of his rare poor races on Sir Reginald. The bad news for David Brown is that Glen Moss picked up a 5lbs penalty which may just be enough to thwart him on a track he loves.

Heaven’s Guest won another one of these races here last October, beating Bertiewhittle, Loving Spirit and Redvers among others. Of those, Loving Spirit looked to be having something of a prep race at Kempton last time and could be worth a flutter.

You also have to respect the claims of Brownsea Brink who was in electric form last autumn when winning three on the bounce. He ran a cracker in the Spring Cup at Newbury and that is usually a good guide to this race. Richard Hughes does the steering and should give us a run for our money.

It could be a good day for Hughes as he partners Hamelin for Lady Cecil in the opener and Pether’s Moon for Hannon in the second race. Both have winning chances.

Hamelin won well at Kempton and then confirmed that he is more than an all-weather performer by winning at Leicester off a mark of 85. He is up 6lbs here but looks like a handicapper worth following. Pether’s Moon is in great form having won at Kempton and then chased home Gospel Choir at Newmarket. He finished in front of Irish Derby winner Trading Leather last time and a repeat of that performance would be good enough.

Hamelin 2.05 Ascot at 11-4 Bet365

Pether’s Moon 2.40 Ascot at 9-2 Ladbrokes

Loving Spirit 3.50 Ascot at 12-1 Paddy Power

Brownsea Brink 3.50 Ascot at 14-1 Ladbrokes

Lingfield Saturday Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Aidan O’Brien resumed normal service at Chester this week by winning the two Derby trials. Whether or not we see Orchestra and/or Kingfisher at Epsom is open to question but he may not be finished yet.

It’s classic trial day at Lingfield (on turf!). The going is reported to be good so they must have missed most of the wet stuff and both the Oaks and Derby trials look worthy of close attention.

The aforementioned Master of Ballydoyle runs two in the Derby Trial. Mekong River has much the better form having finished fourth in a Group 1 last season. Joseph O’Brien partners him with Ryan Moore aboard the unbeaten Blue Hussar. Moore teamed up with Orchestra earlier in the week and could be on the right one here too.

The form of his maiden win may be nothing to write home about but the style of his victory suggests he is a smart colt in the making. He is a son of Montjeu out of a Woodman mare and found seven furlongs a bit on the sharp side last November. Once he got to the home straight he overhauled seven or eight horses. I suppose you could question whether or not he will handle Lingfield but I expect him to get the trip.

Of the other runners, I have respect Munjaz who is a big burly colt with a future. He won his maiden at a time when anything trained by John Gosden was winning but things are a bit more difficult now. Sudden Wonder’s Newmarket form is nothing out of the ordinary and Blue Hussar represents the value bet.

The Oaks Trial at 2.20 sees the return to action of Andrew Balding’s Casual Smile. I’ve always had a soft spot for this filly because she is by Sea The Stars out of Oaks winner Casual Look. I backed her mum at 14-1 for the Oaks and this filly could be just as useful. She ran well in all three starts at two and I have written at length about Taghrooda’s victory in the past. I rate that the best maiden of the season and the form looks pretty good now!

You never know what to expect from fillies, the Cheshire Oaks being a case in point earlier this week. Sir Michael Stoute runs Queen’s Prize in the Royal colours. She won on her debut on the all-weather but this marks a big step up in class. Ralph Beckett loves this race but I doubt even he knows which is the best of his three. Stick with Casual Smile to boost the Taghrooda form yet again.

Casual Smile 2.20 Lingfield 3-1 Bet365, BetVictor

Blue Hussar 2.55 Lingfield 6-1 William Hill

 

Chester Friday Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Having secured a profit on each of the first two days at Chester, the pressure is on for the final day of the meeting. Friday’s card looks the weakest of the week and there are only a couple of horses that stand out for me.

At the start of the week I was saying just how vital a low draw is at the Roodeye. Typically, the two widest drawn horses in the opening two-year-old race finished 1-2! Normal service has been resumed for the rest of the week but the opener tomorrow throws up another conundrum.

Sir Michael Stoute does not keep a lot of older horses in training, especially unraced maidens. Abseil is very much an exception to the rule and he won his maiden in fine style at Yarmouth last month. He raced quite keenly early on but settled well enough for James Doyle before stretching clear over a mile. Only one of the beaten horses has run since and finished second so it is too early to say whether it was a decent maiden.

The handicapper has taken a chance by rating him at just 91. I think he is expected to go a lot higher than that but enter the dreaded Chester draw. He has drawn 13 of 14 which virtually puts him in the River Dee. The trouble is that I cannot find what is likely to beat him, apart from the draw. Capo Rosso won well on the all-weather but is in stall 11 while Here Comes When (1) and Big Johnny D (2) are likely to blaze the trail. The softer ground may help as it will slow the leaders down a little.

My second bet is for Mount Athos in the Ormonde Stakes. He hacked up in this race last year but it was a poor field, underlined by the runner-up Mad Moose! Even so, it showed that he handles it round here and his form in Australia was top notch. Stoute is again to the fore with Hillstar but almost all of his runners need their first run.

I am not a great fan of Jamie Spencer and I was amazed by his ride on Angel Gabrial in the Chester Cup. I had ready Richard Fahey’s column explaining that they had finally found out that the key to the horse was to hold him up as late as possible. Spencer held him up in rear but then unleashed him into the lead on the home turn. He was a sitting duck from that point and it was no surprise to see Ryan Moore steal the glory. Spencer should have no such problems on Mount Athos.

Abseil at 9-2 Paddy Power

Mount Athos at 9-4 Coral

Chester Thursday Preview

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The feature race on day 2 of the Chester May meeting is the Chester Vase, a recognised Derby trial. Nothing leaps out of the page as an Epsom candidate this year, although the most likely candidates are supplied as usual by Aidan O’Brien.

He saddles Carlo Bugatti and Orchestra here and it is interesting that Joseph is on board the former who will wear blinkers for the first time. You wouldn’t normally take that as a good sign, especially for a horse having only his third race. It is in response to his fourth place behind Fascinating Rock in the Ballysax Stakes at Navan last month.

I would much rather side with Ryan Moore’s mount, Orchestra. He is an imposing son of Galileo who won his maiden at Tipperary in August after chasing home Free Eagle on his debut. He is currently 40-1 for Epsom but O’Brien is not averse to running several in the classics so a good show here could bring him into contention.

The card kicks off at 1.45 with a competitive handicap featuring several familiar names. Those with good memories will recall that Yeager did us a good turn at Ascot last season before being ambitiously aimed at Arlington. He flopped there but was hampered during the race and made a pleasing return to form at Lingfield last month. He has a good draw and is worth a chance at around 5-1. Squire Osbaldeston and Makafeh are others to note for the coming weeks.

The Huxley Stakes sees a rematch between Noble Mission and Telescope from Sandown. The former had nine lengths to spare that day and is it realistic to expect a different outcome here? The Stoute team seem to think so but he looked beaten fair and square that day and I expect Noble Mission to confirm the form. The one most likely to spoil the party is Ektihaam who looked promising until slipping up at Royal Ascot last season.

The final televised race is the seven furlong handicap at 3.15 and Captain Bob looks the one to be on here. He ran some good races as a two-year-old without winning but starts the season on a good handicap mark as a result. He won without Dettori having to use his stick at Warwick, bowled along nicely at the head of affairs and should go well here.

Yeager 1.45 Chester at 6-1 BetVictor

Noble Mission 2.15 Chester at 11-4 Betfair

Orchestra 2.45 Chester at 4-1 Paddy Power

Captain Bob 3.15 Chester at 5-1 BetVictor

Chester Wednesday Preview

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Chester’s May meeting revives happy memories of my student days and regular visits to the Roodeye. The tight turns ensure that the action is fast and furious with the draw an ever-present consideration to unravelling the form.

The meeting starts with a tricky two-year-old race with the best horses on form typically drawn widest of all. That could hand the advantage to the David Evans pair who are both handily drawn in stalls 1 and 3. Perhaps foolishly, I am going to take all four of them on with the maiden Magical Memory. The grey is trained by Charlie Hills who will be keen to emulate his father, a great supporter of this meeting.

Magical Memory was favourite at Newbury for his debut and ran well for a long way before weakening. Stall 7 is not ideal but he should be able to sit close enough to land a blow in the home straight. Hills also has a chance in the Cheshire Oaks with Brown Diamond who caught the eye at Newbury when running on into third. She was also fourth to Taghrooda in one of the best maidens of last season.

This looks a fascinating contest with Psychometry and Bright Approach both having enormous potential. I like the Stoute filly but almost all of his horses have needed a run to put them straight this season.

Mubaraza is starting to prove expensive for his followers but it’s hard to knock him after solid efforts in the Ascot Stakes and Northumberland Plate. He looked sure to win first time out but was just pegged back by Angel Gabrial. I expect him to come out on top with a 3lbs pull and a good draw. It does not look a good quality field this year so maybe this is Mubaraza’s turn.

Lucky Beggar can continue the good work for Charlie Hills in the conditions race at 4.25 after making all to win at Newbury. He beat better horses there than he meets tomorrow, providing he does not get drawn into a mad early dash by Trinityelitedotcom.

I had a good hard look at Lovelocks in the last as well but have decided to pass her over in favour of Storm Force Ten. Lovelocks got no run at all last time out and can be rated a lot better than her finishing position suggests. The hood is fitted tomorrow but Storm Force Ten has the one stall and may be hard to pass.

Magical Memory 1.45 Chester at 11-2 Bet365

Brown Diamond 2.15 Chester at 15-2 Paddy Power

Mubaraza 2.45 Chester at 5-1 Bet365

Lucky Beggar 4.25 Chester at 5-2 Coral

Storm Force Ten 5.00 Chester at 7-1 Bet365

Newmarket Guineas Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

After months of anticipation, Guineas weekend is upon us! I broke with tradition by placing two bets on the 2000 Guineas before June was out last summer and both have made it to the final line up. That is an achievement in itself but I’m very confident that Kingman can win the season’s first classic.

2000 Guineas

Our ante-post book looks remarkably healthy. Kingman was advised in this column at 14-1 after his impressive debut while War Command was tipped at 10-1 after Royal Ascot. The latter has been overshadowed by stable companion Australia in the build-up but his price has contracted significantly in recent days and it would not surprise me to see him prove the pick of the O’Brien runners.

I topped off our portfolio last week by suggesting that Outstrip was over-priced at 56-1 with Betfair. The grey has a great finishing kick as he showed in the Breeders’ Cup and a repeat of that performance would certainly put him in the frame here.

There are plenty of dangers, notably Craven winner Toormore who remains unbeaten. He could only beat what was put in front of him that day and is closely matched with Outstrip on Goodwood form from last season. I’m happy to let our horses run with adding any further investment.

Kingman 14-1*

War Command 10-1*

Outstrip 56-1*

1000 Guineas

A huge field of 19 go to post for the fillies classic on Sunday and our hopes are firmly pinned to the Ihtimal mast. My regular followers will know that she has done us proud in the past and I see no reason to desert her now.

Her victory in the UAE Oaks was very impressive, quickening clear in the style of a smart performer. For some reason she has not captured the imagination of the betting public and is still available at an each-way price. I first tipped her at 16-1 and then followed up at 10-1 last week.

I did consider Rizeena last season but felt that Ihtimal was more likely to truly stay the Newmarket mile. I still cannot see how Rizeena can be less than half of the price of Ihtimal. Miss France was bitterly disappointing first time out and Vorda looks like a sprinter for all the world. Tapestry and Bracelet are more likely dangers but I remain confident in Ihtimal.

Ihtimal at 16-1 and 10-1*

*Ante-post advice