Category: Horse Racing Tips

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Newmarket Thursday Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The opening day of the Craven meeting was packed with competitive racing but Thursday’s card does not look quite so appealing. The headline Craven Stakes has effectively been reduced to a duel between Toormore and Be Ready.

Godolphin have high hopes for Be Ready, a strapping chestnut son of New Approach. He was well-touted before his debut at Newbury in August but he was a big, raw two-year-old and found the more streetwise Somewhat far too good. Although beaten four and a half lengths, he still showed plenty of potential and landed his maiden at Doncaster the following month.

He looked much more the finished article that day and quickened away from Barley Mow to win by three lengths. That form may not be top drawer but he has entries in the 2000 Guineas and the Derby and is clearly well-regarded.

On the bare form, he has no real chance of beating Toormore over this trip. Richard Hannon’s Guineas hope won the Group 1 National Stakes in September to be the top-rated two-year-old. Giovanni Boldini finished third in that race and went on to finish second to Outstrip in the Breeders’ Cup, another horse beaten by Toormore last season. If Toormore is anywhere near his peak, he should provide Ryan Moore with a comfortable success.

The bet of the day has to be Roger Varian’s Aljamaaheer who drops back to sprint distances in the Abernant Stakes. The five-year-old will be having his first race over six furlongs since his debut win at Yarmouth in 2011.

Regular readers of this column will have fond memories of Aljamaaheer from last season, grabbing some each-way profits for us at big prices in the Lockinge and the Queen Anne Stakes. His run in the Queen Anne was arguably a career-best when going down by just three-quarters of a length to Declaration Of War.

He is known to prefer faster ground and conditions should be perfect for him on Thursday. Heaven’s Guest was a real money-spinner for Richard Fahey last season, winning four races including a valuable seven-furlong handicap at Ascot. He should come on for his run behind Dinkum Diamond at Doncaster last month and can claim place money.

Favourite-backers will be on good terms with themselves if both Toormore and Aljamaaheer oblige and Just The Judge could make it three in the Earl Of Sefton Stakes. She won the Irish 1000 Guineas last season but did not run up to that level on three subsequent starts. There were valid excuses for her on each occasion and she is entitled to win this.

Newmarket

Toormore (4.05) at 8-11 William Hill

Aljamaaheer (3.30) at 6-4 Paddy Power

Just The Judge (4.40) at 3-1 Bet365

Newmarket Wednesday Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Newmarket’s Craven meeting gets under way on Wednesday. It hardly seems like five minutes ago that we were looking forward to Cheltenham and here we are looking for classic clues! It will take something spectacular to trump the performance of Kingman at Newbury last weekend. I tipped him at 14-1 for the Guineas last June and that looks pretty good value now.

The fillies dominate day 1 of the Craven meeting and last year Sky Lantern finished second in the Nell Gwyn here. Although she ran well, few would have expected her to turn out to be such a brilliant filly throughout the rest of the season. It may be optimistic to expect there to be anything of her calibre lining up tomorrow but I’m keen on the chances of the once-raced Folk Melody.

My regular readers will know that I am an ardent supporter of Ihtimal for the classics this season but Folk Melody could give Godolphin a useful second string. She won her maiden nicely enough and was going on strongly at the finish. She is by Street Cry out of that good mare Folk Opera so it is entirely possible that she will need further in time but is worth a bet at 8-1 here.

Godolphin can double up late in the day when True Story reappears in the Feilden Stakes. He holds some ambitious entries and did little wrong in his two starts as a juvenile. He was second to subsequent Breeders’ Cup winner Outstrip before landing his maiden in good style. I regard Somewhat as the main danger as he ran some fine races as a two-year-old, notably when second to Berkshire in the Royal Lodge.

I also like the look of Parbold in the European Free Handicap. Richard Fahey won this last year with Garswood and Parbold has a very similar profile. If anything he has a better record going into this event so must give weight to his five rivals. It’s a disappointing turnout for such a good prize but that won’t worry Parbold’s connections.

My old friend John Gosden is winning with everything he saddles at the moment and has two runners tomorrow, both likely to start favourite. Provident Spirit finished second at Doncaster on his debut and can put the experience to good use in the opener. Munjaz was unlucky not to open his account here last year and can further boost Mr G’s incredible strike rate in the 5.10.

Newmarket

1.45 Provident Spirit

3.30 Parbold at 4-1 Stan James, Totesport

4.05 Folk Melody at 8-1 William Hill

4.40 True Story at 3-1 Bet365

5.10 Munjaz

Greenham Stakes Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

If the fillies are serving up a decent appetiser in the Dubai Duty Free Stakes at Newbury on Saturday, what can you say about the main event? The Greenham Stakes sees the eagerly awaited return of two of the best juveniles in Berkshire and the unbeaten Kingman.

Kingman is currently as short as 5-1 for the 2000 Guineas and the Gosden stable have already hit form with a hat-trick at Nottingham on Monday. I tipped Kingman for the 2000 Guineas in this column at the end of June at 14-1. That was incredibly early in the season by my own standards for a Guineas bet but there was something about his debut victory that made him appear exceptional.

He next appeared at Sandown with a routine victory under James Doyle before a minor injury curtailed his season. He seemed inclined to carry his head a little high at Sandown, although Doyle was giving him an easy time and it is difficult to know how much he had in hand. The injury and the usual pessimistic overtones from Mr Gosden would certainly not have me racing to take the 2-1 on offer for Saturday.

Berkshire is a horse that I like a lot and I advised taking the 25-1 about him for the Epsom Derby recently. I’m less inclined to back him for the Guineas as he seemed to be crying out for a trip on his second start last season. That was over a mile at Newmarket in which he looked in trouble approaching the dip but ran on bravely to beat Somewhat by a neck. The close proximity of Sir Jack Layden in third, beaten just two necks, suggested this was not a great Royal Lodge but Berkshire had been off the track since June.

That was in the Chesham Stakes where be beat Bunker, Ihtimal and Somewhat by two and a half lengths, a length and a half and four lengths. I rate Ihtimal a cracking bet for the 1000 Guineas and Oaks this season while the Hannon team consider Bunker a possible Epsom horse.

It is by no means a two-horse race. Night Of Thunder bolted up at Doncaster in October but looked to me like a speed horse. Astaire won the Gimcrack and the Middle Park Stakes at two but is another who could find himself contesting the top sprints. Lat Hawill won by eight lengths on his debut at Newcastle and could be anything while Golden Town won at York despite hanging badly.

I’m a huge fan of Berkshire but I just feel that Kingman may have his measure over this trip.

Kingman at 2-1 Totesport

 

Dubai Duty Free Stakes Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Flat season gets into gear this weekend with the first of the Guineas trials at Newbury. The Dubai Duty Free Stakes (better known as The Fred Darling) has been the starting point for many classic campaigns over the years and has attracted a good class field on Saturday.

My 1000 Guineas hopes are firmly with Godolphin’s Ihtimal and it is doubtful whether anything in this field will change that view. One filly that could yet emerge as a Guineas candidate is Al Thakira who won her first two starts impressively before floundering in the Breeders’ Cup. That may just have been too much too soon for the daughter of Dubawi and her homework has been encouraging.

Her victory in the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes in October certainly entitles her to start favourite here but there may be better value elsewhere. The Charlie Hills duo of Coral Mist and Dutch Romance are of particular interest as they both rewarded support for this column last term.

Coral Mist put up an eye-catching debut when third to Valonia, charging through late at odds of 33-1. The race produced several future winners including runner-up Stars Above Me. Valonia attracted the attention of Qatar Racing and was snapped up before her next start at Ayr.

Having duly landed her maiden, Coral Mist was well backed for the Group 3 Firth Of Clyde Stakes and made rapid late headway to get the verdict in a bunch finish. Eight horses crossed the line within just over a length of each other including Valonia in fourth. It is generally agreed that a lot of horses finishing together are unlikely to all prove useful. Normally I would agree but Coral Mist’s style of racing encourages me to keep faith with her.

She looked to have an impossible task behind a wall of horses with a furlong to run but kept on in determined style for Tom Queally. That was on good to soft ground (as forecast for Newbury) and she now gets an extra furlong. Providing they don’t go too slow, I think she is great each-way value. Dutch Romance also caught the eye on her debut before winning well at Salisbury in heavy ground. She ran a bit too keenly here in Listed company in October and was third to Aqlaam Vision. She could also be worth following this summer.

The impeccably-bred Joyeuse and Lowther Stakes flop J Wonder are others to note in a fascinating contest.

Coral Mist at 6-1 Paddy Power

Scottish National Preview

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The Scottish National is always a tricky race to call. It comes so soon after the Aintree Grand National that it is rare for a horse from that event to be able to perform at its best. It also leaves us in the dark as far as running plans are concerned but it seems as though Paul Nicholls intends to run top weight Tidal Bay.

He was unlucky to exit the National last week but went on to make his presence felt when steering Across The Bay out of the race. Nicholls reasons that he has not had a hard race but he still has to concede a lot of weight. Perhaps more significantly, he keeps the weights compressed for everything else in the race including stable companion Sam Winner.

Sam Winner suffered a very severe injury a couple of seasons ago and looked unlikely to race again. It is to his credit that he has come back well enough to rank highly in the novice chase division this season. I gave him an each-way chance in the RSA Chase and he travelled well for a long way before weakening. Back in handicap company, he could be interesting. The RSA Chase form was not covered in glory at Aintree last week but I blame the different track for O’Faolains Boy’s poor effort and expect to see him back to his best next season.

One horse that did not make the Aintree line up was Alan King’s Godsmejudge. The trainer felt that he was just not quite ready for it and he has decided to come back here to attempt to repeat last year’s victory. In terms of the handicap, he is only 6lbs higher than when winning so impressively last season. It is difficult to be too confident about a horse that has not managed to complete in his last two races but there were mitigating circumstances.

The stable were well below par when he pulled up at Sandown and perhaps he just took a long time to get over the virus. We will soon know our fate as he usually travels quite nicely in his races and struck for home a long way out last year. He is certainly worth an each-way interest at 20-1 for a course and distance winner.

The race could be turned on its head if Tidal Bay comes out so we will watch the final declarations with interest.

Sam Winner at 11-1 Sportingbet

Godsmejudge at 20-1 Bet365

Scottish Champion Hurdle Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The National Hunt season still has a few big races remaining, starting with the Scottish National meeting at Ayr this weekend. I’ll be previewing the National separately but the Scottish Champion Hurdle is also featured on the ante-post lists now that it is run as a handicap.

As something of a traditionalist, it seems a shame that both the Welsh and Scottish Champion Hurdle are now handicaps but it was inevitable. So much emphasis is put on Cheltenham these days that they were attracting only three or four runners. The policy seems to be working and there is a decent entry for this weekend’s Grade 2 event.

Surprisingly, Nicky Henderson has elected to run My Tent Or Yours. He ran very well at the festival but could not peg back Jezki in the closing stages. That was the second year running that he has found one to good following his narrow defeat in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle last year. It is worth remembering that My Tent Or Yours suffered a minor setback ahead of the Champion Hurdle so it could be significant that he is set to turn out here.

He has to concede upwards of 16lbs to his rivals but it is going to take a good one to lower his colours. There are two horses that stand out as possible dangers, Montbazon and Clever Cookie. Alan King has always held Montbazon in high regard but injury has limited his opportunities following a fine novice season. He was understandably a bit rusty on his debut in the Betfair Hurdle after a layoff of almost two years but ran a great race to be third in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham. My only concern with him is that he appeared to have quite a hard race there.

Clever Cookie has gone from strength to strength this season, winning his last three races in great style. They included the Scottish County Hurdle, although it has to be said that it was far removed from the Cheltenham variety. He then bolted up at Kelso in a Grade 2 race so is entitled to take on the likes of My Tent Or Yours in receipt of weight.

My old friend Flaxen Flare has been toiling away in the hottest handicaps all season and is another with a chance if he makes the trip over from Ireland. He doesn’t always find as much as you’d expect off the bridle but 18lbs looks a lot of weight to be getting from the favourite. My Tent Or Yours should make his class tell but he will need to be at his best.

My Tent Or Yours at 11-10 Paddy Power