Grand National 2014 Preview

The Grand National is finally upon us with forty horses set to tackle the famous fences and nearly four and a half miles at Aintree. It looks as if the going is likely to be almost perfect so there should be no excuses on that score for beaten horses. Only Godsmejudge (33-1) has failed to turn up from our ante-post selections so here is the final run-down.

Teaforthree (adv. 25-1)

Rebecca Curtis is reportedly delighted with his condition after the Cheltenham Gold Cup and believes that he is in better shape than a year ago. He finished third that day with Nick Scholfield aboard and the combination must have a great chance. I think 8-1 is very short for anything in this race but I’d imagine the bookies will be pushing him out to 10-1 or 11-1 tonight in order to balance the books.

Monbeg Dude (adv. 25-1)

At the start of the season I felt that this fellow may be too small and need soft ground to win a National. He shattered my theories when jumping superbly to win at Cheltenham on good ground, although he did not reproduce that at Doncaster last time. He has “The Head Waiter” Paul Carberry on board so we may need binoculars to find him early on. I fear that they may go too quick for him but hopefully he can work his way into it second time around.

Triolo D’Alene (adv. 25-1)

I re-invested some of my Hennessy Gold Cup winnings on this one for Aintree but his odds have been going in the other direction since a puzzling run in the Gold Cup. Nicky Henderson suddenly seemed to do an about-turn and rated him “a player” at Cheltenham but he was never involved. I did read that he had breathing difficulties during the race so, assuming that the problem has been rectified, all is not lost.

Big Shu (adv. 40-1)

I added the Irish raider to my portfolio after his third in the Cross Country Chase at the Festival. He was given a lot of ground to make up that day and faded a little towards the finish but it was only his second start of the season. He still looks a rattling good each-way bet to me.

Vintage Star (89-1 Betfair)

I always look through the outsiders on the day in case I have overlooked something. I keep going back to Vintage Star because he has moved into a winning position in some decent races without getting home in the heavy ground. It is difficult to tell from his form whether he will improve for better ground but he has a squeak.

Aintree Day 2 Preview

Cheltenham form stood up remarkably well on the opening day of the Grand National meeting. Dynaste looked to be set to swoop turning for home but found little under pressure and Silviniaco Conti ground out a deserved success. It is interesting that the bookies are going 14-1 the field for the 2015 Gold Cup. That certainly suggests the absence of a superstar in the chasing ranks.

The second day also revolves largely around Cheltenham form and I’m keeping faith with O’Faolains Boy after his game win in the RSA Chase. The going will be quicker and this tighter track might be a slight concern but I haven’t seen anything to suggest that he won’t handle it. Holywell picked up a valuable Cheltenham handicap and is a difficult opponent while Many Clouds was unlucky to be brought down last time.

This could be a massive week for Rebecca Curtis who is putting the finishing touches to Teaforthree’s Grand National preparations. Presumably he will be travelling to Aintree on the day as he did last year because he hates staying away overnight. Being trained in Wales and a former festival winner for JT McNamara, there is plenty in his history to keep the racing journalists happy if he comes in front on Saturday.

The Melling Chase looks a tricky one this year with easy Cheltenham winner Ballynagour taking on the more consistent Module and Rajdhani Express. Ballynagour won so easily at the festival that he is a tempting proposition at around 6-1 but he is just as likely to pull up as bolt up! We should know our fate after half a dozen fences.

Ma Filleule ran well for a long way at the festival and looks the sort to bowl along in the Topham Chase. She looks high enough in the handicap for a six-year-old but should give us a good run at each-way odds. I’m a big fan of Double Ross who has been on the go all the winter and his Cheltenham run was given a boost by Uxizandre on Thursday. He would probably like it softer but he’s as tough as old boots and may also feature.

The races don’t come much tougher than the two and a half mile handicap hurdle on the card. Cheltenian was disappointing at the festival, especially when you consider how well Hobbs did with his other hurdlers. He was in contention until the second last but pulled up quickly but I’ve no idea what the problem was. Alavain has threatened to pick up one of these competitive handicaps and Linehan’s 5lb claim gives him a squeak.

O’Faolains Boy (2.30 Aintree) at 5-2 Coral

Ballynagour (3.05 Aintree) at 7-1 William Hill

Double Ross (3.40 Aintree) at 11-1 Totesport

Ma Filleule (3.40 Aintree) at 16-1 Coral

Alavain (4.50 Aintree) at 16-1 Coral

Aintree Day 1 Preview

The Grand National meeting kicks off on Thursday with some top quality action. As always, there are plenty of Cheltenham winners on display and many more on a retrieval mission from last month’s festival.

The Aintree Hurdle should go the way of unlucky Champion Hurdle third The New One. I was never quite convinced by all the pre-race hype surrounding this horse at the festival as it was always in my mind that two miles is on the sharp side. His chances were dealt a hammer blow by the sad demise of Our Conor immediately in front of him and he ran on courageously to take third.

Rock On Ruby looked like a fish out of water over the larger obstacles and should enjoy being back over hurdles here. I expect him to give The New One most to do but neither is betting material.

We picked out Dynaste at 5-2 earlier in the week and he should give us a run for our money in the 6-runner Betfred Bowl. He has course and distance winning form, as does Silviniaco Conti, but the grey may just have too much speed on this track.

Our first bet on the card is for Activial in the opener. I backed him at non-runner – no bet terms for the Triumph Hurdle as it was always on the cards that Harry Fry would wait for this. He looked a smart hurdler at Kempton and I expect him to have improved enough to gain revenge on Newbury conqueror Calipto.

You have to respect Guitar Pete after another fine effort at Cheltenham and Aurore D’Estruval is another talented performer in a fascinating opener. The Triumph did not look the strongest this year and I expect Activial to come out on top.

The last race looks impossible at first glance but the Irish raider Busty Brown looks well weighted. The eight-year-old was not disgraced over a shorter trip behind Sailors Warn last time and has been placed in Grade 1 races in the past.

It is a tightly congested handicap with only 12lbs covering the entire field and Paul Carberry will have to be at his best to weave his way through 22 runners. Noel Meade doesn’t waste his time sending over horses that have no chance so I’m taking the early 12-1 and hoping for a good run. If the heavens open, have a saver on Kaylif Aramis at 14-1.

2.00 Activial at 4-1 Bet365

2.30 Dynaste at 5-2* Ante-post

5.25 Busty Brown at 12-1 Bet365

Wincanton Wednesday Preview

The week has not exactly started with glorious spring weather and there is still a chance of soft going for the Grand National on Saturday. That will be good news for the likes of Hawkes Point and Mountainous but not so good for Triolo D’Alene and Double Seven. The big Aintree meeting opens on Thursday but there is some decent action at Wincanton tomorrow to keep punters entertained.

The one that catches my eye is Kings Bayonet, trained by Alan King. The problems in the yard at the end of last year were well documented but King’s horses are in good enough form now. Bull And Bush did us a favour last week and Kings Bayonet is another with plenty of potential.

When a yard suffers from a virus, you sometimes find that the horses have slipped down to a winning mark in the handicap and I’m expecting King to fire in a good few winners between now and the end of the season. King’s Bayonet is currently rated 117, 5lbs lower than when a beaten favourite at Wetherby in May.

His victories have come on decent ground, which may help to explain why he drifted so alarmingly in the betting at Newbury last month. He started at 16-1 in the heavy ground but looked to be travelling best of all for a long way. He emptied between the second last and the final flight to finish third to Westaway but Newbury races are generally of a decent standard.

Hopefully there should be some improvement to come and the going is currently good to soft which should suit him. He was no world-beater on the level but he did win a decent handicap at Newbury under Hayley Turner and a maiden at Wolverhampton. He looks worth a flutter at around 6-1.

The obvious danger is V Neck in the JP McManus colours. He has not been out of the first two in three races for Paul Nicholls and will almost certainly start favourite with AP McCoy in the saddle. Jonjo O’Neill’s Carlton Jack has also been consistent but was well beaten last time and has plenty of weight. Henryville looks a bigger threat after winning at Fontwell and finish a good second at Exeter last time.

Nick Gifford’s Generous Ransom won last time and Patsys Castle is in with a squeak if you ignore his last run in a hot race at Ascot. Hopefully Kings Baronet can put some money in the coffers with Aintree just around the corner!

Kings Bayonet at 6-1 Bet365, Ladbrokes

Betfred Bowl Preview

Few people enjoyed the Cheltenham Festival as much as David Pipe this year as he saddled three winners. The shock victory of Western Warhorse was followed by victories for Dynaste (Ryanair) and Ballynagour (Byrne Group Plate).

Most form pundits reckoned Pipe’s best chances of a festival winner lay with his novice hurdlers but hopefully they will have other days. The show moves on to Aintree this week and Dynaste is ready to step back up in distance for the Betfred Bowl. Normally this might be a concern for a Ryanair winner but not in this case.

Had the King George VI Chase gone to plan, Dynaste would almost certainly have lined up for the Cheltenham Gold Cup this year. He had finished in front of Silviniaco Conti and Bobs Worth in the Betfair Chase at Haydock and is already a three-mile winner at Liverpool. To my eyes, he looked flat out for much of the way at Cheltenham over two and a half miles and will be much more at home over the longer trip.

Last year, Dynaste made amends for his defeat at the festival by winning the Mildmay decisively. The forecast is varied but the going should not be any worse than good to soft and that will suit the grey. Silviniaco Conti didn’t do a lot wrong in the Gold Cup but had to settle for fourth place in a scrambling finish. He ran at this fixture last year and put in a lifeless performance and I’d be a bit cautious again this season.

You do get the occasional shock result at this meeting with the hard race at Cheltenham taking its toll on some of the leading fancies. I don’t think that will apply to the main protagonists here as they have had a very light campaign. The 5-2 about Dynaste looks worth a bet.

Our ante-post book for the Grand National on Saturday suffered a minor setback with Godsmejudge pulled out by Alan King. I feared the worst when he was pulled up on his last start but he may be back in time for the Scottish equivalent. I wouldn’t mind a bit of rain for any of our remaining wagers, although the 25-1 about Teaforthree looks the most eye-catching. I’m still quite keen on Big Shu, although he would definitely appreciate some rain by the weekend.

Dynaste (Betfred Bowl) at 5-2 Skybet, Bet Victor

Doncaster Saturday Preview

Flat racing takes centre stage on Saturday with the Lincoln heralding the start of the new flat turf season in the UK and the Dubai World Cup meeting providing some top quality action from Dubai.

I must admit that I’ve never really been convinced by the Dubai World Cup meeting. It is too early in the year for many of the top stables to run their horses and has the feel of a private garden party for Sheikh Mohammed. However, I take my hat off to him this year as the card has much more strength in depth with at least three excellent races.

My methods for Doncaster used to be to look out for horses that were fit from the jumps. The going is usually soft (as it is again this year) and only the fittest horses finish their races. That is why you get horses beaten twenty and thirty lengths over a mile! The only exception was Barry Hills who used to love this meeting and always seemed to have two or three ready to go in first time out.

I’d like to think that John Gosden has a similar approach as he has certainly mastered the Lincoln over the years. He isn’t represented this year but he does run a couple on the card and they may be worth a look. Fencing has always threatened to win a big race and kicks off another campaign in the Listed Doncaster Mile.

After finishing third to Camelot in the Racing Post Trophy in 2011, the chestnut ran in the Guineas, the Dante Stakes and the St James’s Palace Stakes as a three-year-old. Gosden is the ultimate pessimist so he must have faith in the horse to keep him in training for another year. I’m worried about Graphic who did us a couple of good turns last season. He progressed through the handicap and ran a blinder in the Cambridgeshire under the near rail to finish fourth.

Gosden’s other runner is Romsdal in the maiden, by Halling out of a Singspiel mare. He may struggle to get the better of the street-wise Hymenaios who represents the Hannon Jnr stable.

Brae Hill was balloted out of the Lincoln so cannot add to his impressive record of 1st, 2nd and 3rd. Don’t forget, if you backed him ante-post you get your money back. I would re-invest on him for the Spring Cup but trainer Richard Fahey suggested that he was not as far forward as usual this year so I’ll pass him over. Gabrial’s Kaka is our ante-post hope for the big race and should run well for the same yard.

If you haven’t had a bet on the National yet, Big Shu is still available at 40-1 with Coral and Ladbrokes and is my best long shot. Peter Buchanan has been booked to ride so it looks like all systems go.

Ante-Post Gabrial’s Kaka at 16-1

Ante-Post Big Shu at 40-1 Coral, Ladbrokes

Fencing at 3-1 Paddy Power