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Dubai World Cup Update

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

John Gosden pulled a fast one by switching The Fugue from the World Cup to the Dubai Duty Free and has set up a clash with Dank. The vibes from both Gosden and Sir Michael Stoute are very cautious as you may expect for a first run of the season.

There is no doubt that The Fugue has the class to win this but if she is at all rusty it could leave the way open for the in-form Just A Way. Having tipped Dank, I am a little concerned to see her pushed out to 13-2 and I’m going to back The Fugue in the hope that she is fit enough.

The World Cup does not look the strongest renewal and it provides Ruler Of The World with a great opportunity. I’m not convinced that Mukhadram and Hillstar are really top drawer and I can see the potential for a shock result here. I’m going to side with Hong Kong raider Military Attack and hope that he gets a clear run.

If the field for the World Cup is slightly disappointing, the same certainly isn’t true of the Sheema Classic. Aidan O’Brien trained Magician brilliantly to win the Breeders’ Cup Turf after a lengthy absence and he looks a good bet now that he is proven over a mile and a half. Ryan Moore can scarcely have ridden a better race than he did that day and he will be in no hurry again on Saturday.

The danger is likely to come from two-time Japan Cup winner Gentildonna. Moore rode her to a nose victory last year and will be looking to outwit Joseph O’Brien on Magician. It would be interesting to know which horse Moore would have ridden had he been given the choice.

Our old friend Simenon runs in the Gold Cup but has been done no favours by the draw. You may recall he came agonisingly close to landing a 33-1 tip for us in the Ascot Gold Cup and was placed fourth at the same odds in the Melbourne Cup. He certainly doesn’t owe us anything so we can invest a few pounds each-way on him here. The in-form Cavalryman is the one to beat as he seeks back-to-back victories in the race.

I’m a great fan of Breeders’ Cup form and I’m going to have a small bet on Flotilla at 12-1 in the mile. Nothing else really catches my eye and she would have an outstanding chance if back to her French Guineas form. It’s the best overall card that I can remember for this meeting and should give us plenty of clues for the season ahead. I still rate Long John the banker bet of the night at 9-4.

World Cup – Military Attack at 7-1 Paddy Power

Duty Free – The Fugue at 7-2 Coral, Dank at 13-2 Betfair SB

Sheema Classic – Magician at 100-30 SpreadEx

Gold Cup – Simenon at 7-1 Coral

Godolphin Mile – Flotilla at 12-1 Coral

UAE Derby – Long John at 9-4 Betfair SB

UAE Derby Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

There is a strong supporting card for the Dubai World Cup this year and one horse that I am really looking forward to seeing is Long John. He takes his chance in the UAE Derby having already bolted up in the UAE 2000 Guineas recently.

He ran in the colours of Sheikh Mohammed last year in Australia but is now in the blue of Godolphin as he attempts to make a name for himself in Europe this season. If his first run for Charlie Appleby is anything to go by, he is certainly an exciting prospect for races of a mile and beyond.

The son of Street Cry stormed clear to slam Emirates Flyer by four and a half lengths. He won the Group 1 Caulfield Guineas over a mile in Australia but finished down the field in the Cox Plate on his final start. He has a reputation for being particularly lazy at home and Appleby was warned not to expect too much. Whatever his attitude is at home, there was no doubting the manner of his victory last time and I am in no hurry to oppose the gelding.

However, he does have a serious rival here in Aidan O’Brien’s Giovanni Boldini. He looked destined to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf when Ryan Moore drove him ahead at Santa Anita but he was foiled by a late dash from Godolphin’s Outstrip. The winner is very useful and ties in closely with Toormore who is among the 2000 Guineas favourites at Newmarket.

Toormore had Giovanni Boldini back in third place in the National Stakes at the Curragh earlier in the season but there is little doubt that he improved at the Breeders’ Cup. He holds some classic entries and must be feared despite being low on O’Brien’s batting order for the Newmarket Guineas.

Asmar trounced Emirates Flyer by six lengths in a Listed race here, breaking his maiden in the process. If Emirates Flyer gave his true running, Asmar must also be in with a shot. It isn’t often that you see a colt go from a median auction at Wolverhampton to taking on classic colts but that is the case with Jamie Osborne’s Toast Of New York. It is true that he has won his last two starts by an aggregate of 28 lengths but this still looks a huge step up in class.

Safety Check disappointed me last time and appeared not to get home while Sir John Hawkins and Jallota have had plenty of chances.

Long John UAE Derby at 9-4 Betfair SB

Derby Ante-Post Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The turf flat season starts this weekend and that means that the classics aren’t far away. I’ve covered the 1000 Guineas in some depth and am looking forward to Ihtimal after her impressive victories at Meydan.

I don’t really have a firm view on the 2000 Guineas, although confidence behind Australia seems to have gone into overdrive this week. Trainer Aidan O’Brien has apparently said that Istabraq is the only horse that he has trained with more class than Australia. That may seem an odd reference after all of the top class flat horses that have been through his hands, but it certainly tells us that he rates the colt very highly indeed.

I won’t be joining the stampede to take 5-2 for Newmarket because he hasn’t really clashed with the best of his contemporaries. He slaughtered a highly-rated colt in Free Eagle by six lengths at Leopardstown in a Group 3. Dermot Weld thinks a lot of the runner-up, although I’m not sure what he thought about his drubbing that day!

Two colts that I would much rather follow in 2014 are Kingston Hill and Berkshire. To my mind, they both put up eye-catching Derby trials as two-year-olds. Kingston Hill is going to run in the Guineas but it wouldn’t surprise me if Paul Cole kept Berkshire back for a race like the Dante before heading to Epsom.

Kingston Hill was brilliant when winning the Racing Post Trophy. I think he surprised Andrea Atzeni with his turn of foot that day, powering clear in the soft ground to win by four and a half lengths. I’m not too sure what he beat because 200-1 outsider Dolce N Karama was only seven lengths away in fourth. Even so, it was a smart performance and suggested he will cope with the mile and a half at Epsom.

Berkshire is a fabulous looking colt by Mount Nelson out of a Dr Devious mare. He improved about 10lbs on his debut at Newbury to win the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot. There was no doubt that Paul Cole knew he had a potential classic colt on his hands and he did not race again until September. He looked in trouble a furlong out in the Royal Lodge Stakes but knuckled down bravely to win by a neck from Somewhat. The bare form leaves him a lot to do but he is going to be a very smart colt this season.

Kingston Hill at 10-1 Coral

Berkshire at 25-1 Skybet, Paddy Power

Grand National Update

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Trainers are still formulating plans for next week’s Aintree Grand National but some of the leading bookmakers are now offering NR – no bet. This development in recent years, particularly ahead of the Cheltenham festival, has transformed the ante-post betting market.

We can now bet ahead of the major events without the fear of waking up the next morning to find that your horse has been withdrawn. Naturally, the bookies do tend to trim the odds a little to off-set the risk but there is still some great value to be had.

Our long term bets on the Grand National are all still in contention. Teaforthree has more than halved in price since the weights came out while Triolo D’Alene and Monbeg Dude are still on course for the race. Godsmejudge has pulled up twice but has contracted in price to a general 20-1 from 33-1. Trainer Alan King is a master of his trade and if anyone can get him back to his Ayr form it is he.

I would also like to add Big Shu to my ante-post portfolio with the NR-no bet proviso. I have not heard any news about his likely participation, although I do know that his trainer is reluctant to risk him unless the going is soft. He failed in his bid to win the Cross Country Chase at the Cheltenham festival for the second successive year. However, he lost little in defeat when a close third to the tough Balthazar King.

I like Paul Carberry as a jockey but he may have slightly overdone the waiting tactics that day. Big Shu made ground rapidly to join the leaders with three to jump but his effort fizzled out behind Balthazar King and the enigmatic Any Currency. He was only beaten a short head and three lengths on ground that was probably a bit too quick for him.

Balthazar King ran well for a long way in the National last year but he was absolutely legless at the finish and I just don’t see it as a suitable race for him. Philip Hobbs may yet be tempted to give him another try, especially if the going is fast. Maher has already indicated that he was delighted with the 10st 8lb allocated to his horse who defied a massive 12st 3lb in the La Touche Cup last season.

Big Shu at 33-1 Totesport, Boylesports (NR – No Bet)

Lingfield Saturday Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Earlier in the week we previewed the Winter Derby at Lingfield and put our faith in our old friend Grandeur. Typically, he was promptly drawn 14 of 14, the worst possible stall.

Jeremy Noseda’s admirable grey suffered a similar fate at the Arlington Million last year and was always struggling to get into the race. Ryan Moore has the task of navigating his way through the field. That, combined with his first-time cheek pieces, certainly leaves him vulnerable but he is clearly the best horse in the race on form.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see bookies pushing him out to 2-1, in which case he would represent some value. Statistics suggest that a double-figure draw isn’t the end of the world over this distance at Lingfield with three previous winners of the race overcoming a wide berth. I would hope Moore will settle him in midfield rather than drop in behind because it can get messy on the home turn at Lingfield.

The other race on the card that looks worth a look is the Spring Cup. I’m very surprised to see William Haggas running his smart three-year-old Ertijaal here. The colt ran twice as a juvenile, running into none other than Toormore on his debut. That colt ended the season as top-rated two-year-old so it was a fine run to get within a quarter of a length of him. The pair of them drew seven lengths clear at Leicester over six furlongs.

He then broke his maiden over the same distance at Yarmouth, cruising clear of Exceeder to win by six lengths with Paul Hanagan easing him down inside the final furlong. There was nothing special about the form but he could do no more than win easily. I’m not sure why he did not race again after that but the fact that he still holds entries in the English and Irish 2000 Guineas suggests that he is highly regarded.

They say that lightning doesn’t strike in the same place twice but he too has been shunted out into the widest possible stall. With his limited racing experience, it is more likely to be an obstacle for him than to Grandeur. He is also yet to race on a turning track so Paul Hanagan will need to get him organised early on. There are some decent types up against him but it will be disappointing if he doesn’t win this. We’ll try a double and hope that Moore and Hanagan are on top form.

Ertijaal 3.15 Lingfield at 7-4 Coral

Grandeur 3.50 Lingfield at 7-4 Coral

+ win double

Dubai World Cup Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Dubai World Cup at Meydan on March 29th gives us an early chance to see some of the star names in action. Last year’s Epsom Derby winner Ruler Of The World makes his return to action in a fascinating clash with The Fugue and several other International stars.

Ruler Of The World has not won since Epsom and the form of the classic suggested it was one of the worst in living memory. However, the colt did finish off his season by running third in the Champion Stakes and has to be respected.

John Gosden’s The Fugue was runner-up in both of her last two races, the Breeders’ Cup Turf and the Hong Kong Vase. It was a frustrating end to the season for the mare after Group 1 victories in  the Yorkshire Oaks and Irish Champion Stakes.

Jockey William Buick was devastated when Ryan Moore swooped on Magician to beat The Fugue at Santa Anita but he should have several opportunities for further glory on the mare this season. I think she has the tactical speed to beat Ruler Of The World but I am more concerned about Hong Kong Gold Cup winner Military Attack. He had The Fugue’s Hong Kong conqueror Dominant three lengths away in third last month and arrives here fit and fancied.

The card also sees the return of Dank in the Dubai Duty Free. She had a fantastic season last year for Sir Michael Stoute, chalking up Grade 1 victories in the Beverly D Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf. The big danger to her is the Japanese-trained Just A Way. He defeated two-time Japan Cup winner Gentildonna at Tokyo in October and a repeat of that form would make him very difficult to beat.

Magician is also back in action in the Sheema Classic over a mile and a half. He won the ten furlong Dee Stakes at Chester before winning the Irish 2000 Guineas over a mile. His only poor run came in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot but he bounced back in style to beat The Fugue at Santa Anita.  He has Cirrus Des Aigles and Gentildonna to beat here in a race that looks every bit as good as the World Cup on paper.

Ryan Moore rode Gentildonna to her famous Japan Cup victory in November so he knows what he is up against. Magician looked a quality colt last year and can take this on his way to a successful season in Europe.

The Fugue (Dubai World Cup) at 6-1 SkyBet

Magician (Sheema Classic) at 4-1 Sportingbet

Dank (Dubai Duty Free) at 5-1 Coral