Category: Horse Racing Tips

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Lincoln Handicap Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

No sooner has the dust settled on the Cheltenham festival than we are looking forward to the start of a new flat season. Doncaster’s traditional curtain raiser is only a little over a week away, the Lincoln Handicap over the straight mile.

I haven’t often become involved in the race because it is basically a lottery with the runners either returning from a lengthy absence or having been toiling away on the all-weather. Factors such as the ground and the draw can destroy the best laid plans, although John Gosden has been successful in navigating his way through that particular minefield.

Unfortunately the Newmarket maestro hasn’t got an entry this year and that is probably why the bookies are still going 14-1 the field. Interestingly, that dubious honour goes to Richard Fahey’s Gabrial’s Kaka. Fahey has six entries including Brae Hill who simply loves this race.

He first ran in the race in 2011 where he ran prominently on the stands side under Jamie Spencer, being collared by Sweet Lightning. The following year he just held on by a short-head from the fast finishing Mull of Killough. He was back again last year, this time finishing only a short-neck away third behind Levitate in a blanket finish.

He put up some other fine efforts last season, winning at Sandown and finishing second at Chester and Ayr. You can ignore his last run behind Graphic at York as he was probably over the top by then. This is his time of year and at 20-1 he stands out as one to keep on the right side of.

Fahey has five other runners including Gabrial’s Kaka who was second to Seek Again at York in October. His prominent position in the market suggests he is fancied. Brae Hill is currently at number 45 and there is a maximum field of 22. Gabrial’s Kaka looks certain to get in at number 25 and races in the same colours of Dr Marwan Koukash.

He ran a sound race behind Seek Again but he did seem to carry his head slightly awkwardly. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a visor or cheek pieces applied for the first time at Doncaster. Captain Cat represents Roger Charlton but he seems to have been handicapped up to the hilt on his all-weather form. Jeremy Noseda’s Consign has bits and pieces of form including a decent Ascot win while Brownsea Brink ran up a sequence for Richard Hannon last season.

We’ll put our faith in the Fahey duo for now and wait with interest to see how the trainer’s plans unfold.

Gabrial’s Kaka at 16-1 Racebets

Brae Hill at 20-1 William Hill

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Winter Derby 2014 Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Jeremy Noseda’s Grandeur has already done us a few good turns including when winning the Winter Derby Trial recently. He looked a class above his rivals that day and the race will have brought him to his peak nicely for Saturday.

The £100,000 Winter has attracted a good class field but Grandeur still comes out on top on official figures. Surprisingly, he is yet to win above Listed class in Britain although he has won twice at Grade 2 level in America. He was runner-up to Mukhadram at York in July and also picked up a decent race at Goodwood in good style. His main target was the Arlington Million but he faced an impossible task from a wide draw that day and finished only seventh.

He had over a stone in hand on official ratings here last time but credit to Modernstone for getting fairly close in the closing stages. Ryan Moore gets on well with Grandeur and is already booked for Saturday. It looks like being a maximum field so hopefully he can avoid a wide draw.

The classiest performer in the opposition is 2011 Dewhurst Stakes winner Parish Hall. His last race was in the Champion Stakes at Ascot in October when ninth to Farhh. That was possibly flying a bit high and he would be a threat if he’s fit enough.

The former Mark Johnston-trained Windhoek won a handicap on his first start for Godolphin in January. He was a useful three-year-old last season, competing in several classic trials. His best chance is probably to be up with the pace as he seemed to lack a real turn of foot.

It will be interesting to see how Rebellious Guest gets on in this company. He did us a favour here a few weeks ago and I was kicking myself for deserting him at Kempton last time where he set a new track record. That was his first attempt at a mile and a quarter so there could be further improvement in him.

Graphic was progressive for William Haggas last season and I have plenty of respect for him too. He could develop into a group performer this season. It’s certainly shaping up to be a very good renewal of a race that hasn’t quite captured the imagination in recent years.

Grandeur at 6-4 Bet365

O’Faolains Boy has Gold Cup potential

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

It may seem strange to be looking forward to the 2015 Cheltenham festival already but the rest of the jump season pales into insignificance after the four days we enjoyed last week. Or wonderful Wednesday haul of four winners left us with a profit on our Cheltenham portfolio of more than 50 points.

I’m going to re-invest the first of those on one of our winners, O’Faolains Boy. He is currently available at 20-1 for the 2015 Gold Cup and I feel this is under-estimating him, just as the bookmakers did in the wake of his Reynoldstown Chase victory.

For whatever reason, he hasn’t quite received the acclaim of previous winners of the RSA Chase. Yet, to my eyes at least, it was a top class renewal with good quality runners from Britain and Ireland. I will be amazed if we don’t see half of dozen of them winning top class races next season.

I am also influenced by the result of this year’s Gold Cup. Not only was it won by the previous year’s RSA winner for the second year running, it left the distinct impression that any one of five horses could have won the race on a different day. There is clearly room for a new talent to emerge and I see no reason why O’Faolains Boy cannot be the one.

As I mentioned when tipping him for Cheltenham, you could safely ignore his poor run at Haydock behind Taquin Du Seuil as it came at a time when the Rebecca Curtis stable was under a cloud. His Ascot victory over Many Clouds in the Reynoldstown was as good as I had seen from a staying novice all season.

Andy King’s Smad Place ran a great race in defeat and there is no reason why he cannot go on to be as successful over fences as he was over hurdles. Alan King must have been thrilled with him but I always felt that Barry Geraghty had more up his sleeve if he needed it. He acts on all types of ground and could be even better next year if he gets an un-interrupted preparation.

The bookmakers clearly feel that the Gold Cup is wide open and go 10-1 the field. I would agree with that assessment but feel that O’Faolains Boy should be much shorter than 20-1. He will do to kick off our Cheltenham portfolio 2015!

O’Faolains Boy at 20-1 Paddy Power, Skybet

Uttoxeter Saturday Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

That’s Cheltenham over for another year and what a dramatic final day! I cannot remember another day like it. The Gold Cup was a thriller with victory just going to Lord Windermere over On His Own and the enigmatic The Giant Bolster.

The down side was the horrific injuries to Ruby Walsh and Daryl Jacob and the tragic death of Raya Star. Last Instalment was retired immediately after the Gold Cup and we can only hope that he has not incurred any lasting damage to his fragile legs.

In terms of betting, Betcirca followers finished 50 points up on the week to a level stake thanks to that fantastic Wednesday. The bookies fought back on the closing day, as they usually do! Hopefully Kings Palace is OK after his tumble and apparently Triolo D’Alene had a breathing problem in the Gold Cup.

It is difficult to revert to the usual Saturday cards after such high drama but Uttoxeter have put on a good card to keep us entertained. The feature race is the Midlands National and we need not look any further than the Eider Chase winner Wyck Hill. A big-money purchase for JP McManus last year, he failed to live up to his billing and skipped the Grand National. He came back with a bang at Newcastle last time and can make up for lost time on Saturday.

David Bridgwater must be overjoyed at the fantastic effort from The Giant Bolster to get into the frame for the third successive year in the Gold Cup. He has always held Wyck Hill in similarly high regard and the weights have fallen perfectly for him on Saturday.

Harry Topper has compressed the weights for half of the field leaving Wyck Hill with just 10st 6lb and at a considerable advantage with those below him. He looks great value at 10-1.

The handicap hurdle at 2.15 looks like a great opportunity for Songsmith. The six-year-old made a remarkable comeback after a lengthy absence to finish second to Nicky Henderson’s Full Shift at Kempton. He was a 40-1 shot that day and won’t be anything like that here but he makes plenty of appeal.

The winner did nothing to boost the form with a poor run at Cheltenham on Friday but he has always looked more of a chaser in the making.

Wyck Hill at 10-1 BetVictor

Songsmith at 6-1 Paddy Power

Cheltenham Gold Cup Day Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Our Cheltenham ante-post bets have done us proud this week with a 64 points level stake profit on Wednesday’s wagers. It looked for a long way as if Cause Of Causes (tipped at 12-1) was going to give us another winner on Thursday but he pecked at the last and couldn’t make up the lost ground.

A shame to see Big Buck’s go out with a bit of a whimper after such a tremendous career. The Nicholls stable really aren’t enjoying the best of luck this week but perhaps Calipto and Silviniaco Conti will change that on Friday.

Our Triumph Hurdle hopes were dashed earlier in the week when Le Rocher was pulled out. Activial was also taken out, although we backed him on NR – no bet terms so get our stakes refunded. The same applies to Rocky Creek in the Gold Cup.

Silviniaco Conti has to be our leading hope tomorrow having taken 9-1 at the start of the season. He must have been first or second last year had he stood up at the last. Ruby Walsh was reluctant to comment last year but Nicholls was “gutted”. I’m a little concerned that the going may be on the fast side because that will suit Bobs Worth perfectly but they have started watering.

We also snapped up 40-1 about Triolo D’Alene before McCoy was booked. I must admit that I have always been a bit of a jinx for the champion jockey so this is a good opportunity for him to end the sequence. I have to admit that I am slightly sceptical about headlines such as “plunge horse”. He was 40-1 NR – no bet so that was the time for anyone to back him. Why wait for Henderson to declare him a definite runner and then be happy to take 16-1?

Last Instalment was briefly 14-1 after winning the Irish Hennessy and should run a big race but the ground is also a concern for him. Kings Palace was about the shortest ante-post bet we had on the festival and I still fancy him strongly, particularly as Pipe has now trained three festival winners. Cheltenian has a chance in the County Hurdle so plenty of opportunities to top up our winnings.

Friday

Ante-Post

Triumph Hurdle – Le Rocher 14-1, Activial 10-1

County Hurdle – Dell’ Arca 16-1, Cheltenian 14-1

Albert Bartlett – Kings Palace 5-1

Gold Cup – Last Instalment 14-1, Silviniaco Conti 9-1, Dynaste 25-1, Triolo D’Alene 40-1, Rocky Creek 33-1

Betcirca bashes bookies at Cheltenham!

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Followers of this column were in betting heaven on the second day of the Cheltenham Festival with the first four winners! Ante-post tips Faugheen (10-1), O’Faolains Boy (16-1), Whisper (18-1) and Sire De Grugy (25-1) left the bookies reeling. Punters who linked the four together would have been celebrating an accumulator paying over 92,000-1!

The ante-post selections were placed over a period of time stretching back to December when Sire De Grugy was considered no more than an outsider for the Champion Chase. On Tuesday he confirmed his status as the leading two-mile chaser in Britain and Ireland with a comfortable victory.

Faugheen was red-hot favourite for the opening Neptune Hurdle and duly obliged having been picked out at 10-1. O’Faolains Boy then battled to victory in the RSA Chase for Barry Geraghty before Whisper got the verdict in a photo-finish for the Coral Cup.

Thursday’s card can only be an anti-climax after a day like that! Our only ante-post advice going into day 3 is Cause Of Causes at 12-1 in the Kim Muir at 4.40. Nina Carberry has the ride and must have a decent chance. The horse had no less than seven entries at the meeting but connections have elected to go for the three-mile race with the going firming up.

The big race is the World Hurdle which has been billed as a clash between four-time winner Big Buck’s and the unbeaten Irish mare Annie Power. As much as I respect both horses, I feel that the value bet has to be each-way on Zarkandar at 14-1. He’s as tough as old boots and has been crying out for this trip all season.

Nicholls elected to give the Champion Hurdle a miss this season after he appeared to be outpaced at crucial stages of the race for the past two seasons. It is slightly odd that he hasn’t actually found out if Zarkandar stays but I feel it is highly likely.

The Ryanair has failed to capture my imagination at all this season and I’ll be avoiding it. Dynaste was among my ante-post bets for the Gold Cup but ran poorly in the King George. If he’s back to his best he will be tough to beat but there is little value left.

Thursday

Zarkandar (World Hurdle) at 14-1 Paddy Power

*Ante-post – Cause Of Causes at 12-1 (4.40 Cheltenham)