Category: Horse Racing Tips

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Preakness Stakes Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

American Pharoah bids to follow up his Kentucky Derby victory in Saturday’s Preakness Stakes at Pimlico.

Bob Baffert’s son of Pioneerof The Nile battled to a one-length success at Churchill Downs. He beat Firing Line with stable companion Dortmund two lengths away in third. Both horses take American Pharoah again here.

It is difficult to see what his rivals could do here to reverse the form. Dortmund was soon driven to the lead and was beaten entering the final furlong while Gary Stevens also gave Firing Line a forceful ride. The latter did not surrender with a fight and only went down inside the final 100 yards.

The bookmakers certainly don’t see a change in the outcome on Saturday with American Pharoah priced at 4-6, Firing Line at 4-1 and Dortmund at a top price of 6-1.  With only eight runners, the draw should not come into play and it was worth remembering that the favourite overcame a tough draw to win the Kentucky Derby.

Derby fifth Danzig Moon and the unplaced Mr Z are also in the field but are difficult to fancy and it will be surprising if the big three don’t battle this out. American Pharoah suffered an injury which ruled him out of the Breeders’ Cup last year so has done well to win three quick races this spring. He was not seriously tested to win Grade 2 and Grade 1 events at Oaklawn but was forced to pull out all the stops by Firing Line.

It all looks set up for an exciting re-match. The elusive American Triple Crown is his target this year and it looks as though Firing Line is going to push him all the way. It could even revive memories of Affirmed and his tremendous battles with Alydar back in 1978. The pair finished first and second in all three Triple Crown races.

The race is due off at 11.18 UK Time and can be viewed live on Racing UK.

Best UK odds

American Pharoah 8-11 Paddy Power

Dortmund 6-1 Stan James

Mr Z 50-1 Skybet

Danzig Moon 18-1 Paddy Power

Tale Of Verve 100-1 Bet365

Bodhisattva 66-1 Bet365

Divining Rod 20-1 Stan James

Firing Line 4-1 Stan James

Newbury Preview – Saturday 16th May

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Notarised (tipped at 12-1) kept us ahead of the bookmakers at York on Friday and the show moves on to Newbury. The feature race is the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes at 3.45 with a huge field of eighteen runners set to go to post.

Night Of Thunder is the form choice having won the 2000 Guineas last season for Richard Hannon. He went on to chase home Kingman in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot and was an unlucky loser at the same course on his final start. He is having his first run since October and there may be better value elsewhere.

I have followed Aljamaaheer over the past couple of seasons and was surprised to see Roger Varian run him in the top sprint races last season. He was placed in this race back in 2013 and went on to finish a close second in the Queen Anne Stakes over a mile. He looks overpriced at 25-1 after finishing an unlucky second at Leicester on his seasonal reappearance.

It may also pay to have a little each-way on Moohaarib who won with plenty in hand at Ascot last time. He had previously hung away in the closing stages of the Lincoln but looks just the type to run well in a race like this.

Telescope looks difficult to oppose after his fine run at Newmarket last time. He was just caught on the post by Second Step but will strip fitter in the Aston Park Stakes and has 6lbs and upwards in hand of his rivals here.

The 3.10 is the London Gold Cup and the one that interests me here is the bottom weight Dutch Uncle. Ed Dunlop’s colt was beaten by Jack Hobbs in December before winning his maiden at Wolverhampton. He ran a cracker when second to Subcontinent at Doncaster first time out and the winner has gone in again since. The form received another boost when King Bolete won a hot handicap on Friday and Dutch Uncle has to be the selection here at 9-1.

Our final tip at Newbury on Saturday is Pamona in the Listed Fillies’ Stakes at 4.20. Luca Cumani’s filly was an impressive winner at Newmarket in October and looks destined to better things.

Telescope 2.0 @4-5 Bet365

Dutch Uncle 3.10 @9-1 Paddy Power

Aljamaaheer 3.45 @25-1 Stan James (each-way)

Moohaarib 3.45 @14-1 Bet365 (each-way)

Pamona 4.20 @7-2 William Hill

Golden Horn Dante victory sparks Derby debate

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The Dante Stakes at York on Thursday was meant to finally provide a clear-cut favourite for the Epsom Derby. The race featured ante-post favourite Jack Hobbs, albeit only the winner of a Sandown handicap on his previous start, as well as Group 1 winner Elm Park and the Aidan O’Brien-trained John F Kennedy.

In the event, all three were beaten by a horse not entered for the Derby in Golden Horn. He is a stable companion of Jack Hobbs and trainer John Gosden had hinted that he felt that his form was superior to that of the favourite. There is a £75,000 fee for supplementing for Epsom, not usually a barrier to those owners fortunate enough to possess a serious Derby contender.

The problem is that Anthony Oppenheimer has always believed that Golden Horn would not stay beyond a mile and a quarter. Both he and Gosden were besieged by the media after the race in an effort to nail down their Epsom plans. Instead, the French Derby over a the Dante distance remains a real possibility. To add to the confusion, Jack Hobbs may even be re-directed to Royal Ascot with Gosden clearly feeling that he still has a lot to learn about racing.

The vibes were that Oppenheimer would listen to Gosden’s opinion and the trainer seemed to be leaning towards a tilt at the Derby, whilst making it clear that it was not his decision to make. Bookmakers initially offered 5-1 about Golden Horn but only 6-4 with a run. By late evening, he was only 3-1 or 15-8 with Betfair with a run.

Elm Park looked to be going well when he took up the running in the home straight but he started to hang and dropped away to finish third. It may have been a combination of fitness and feeling the faster ground but trainer Andrew Balding was happy enough and Epsom is the next stop. I don’t think that there will be a stampede to take the 8-1 on offer about him and I would worry if the going is quick on Derby day.

Aidan O’Brien ruled out the prospect of running 2000 Guineas winner Gleneagles who will definitely stay in Ireland for their Guineas instead. Zawraq, winner of the Leopardstown 2000 Guineas Trial, is the only other horse quoted in single figures. If Golden Horn is supplemented, he could start a very short priced favourite. If he heads to France instead, we may see one of the most open Derby’s in recent memory.

York Preview – Friday 15th May

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Dante day at York certainly went the way of the bookmakers with the only winning favourite being in the two-year-old maiden race. The victory of Golden Horn and continuing uncertainty about him being supplemented for Epsom has left the Derby picture as murky as ever.

The final day of the meeting features the Yorkshire Cup and that grand old servant, Brown Panther. He finally gained a well-deserved Group 1 victory in the Irish St Leger last season and was last seen winning the Dubai Gold Cup impressively. All ground seems to come alike to him these days and his stamina could see him home again on Friday.

Romsdal and Snow Sky are the young pretenders here and both were placed in classics last season. Romsdal won well enough at Kempton but I was disappointed with how easily he curled up at Newbury last time when challenged. He plugged on into third behind Arab Spring after making the running and I expect to see him ridden with more restraint this time. His Newbury defeat seems to have convinced connections that he would be better going down the Ascot Gold Cup route rather than looking at the top mile and a half races.

The opening two-year-old race looks wide open with several previous winners. Many of them won on the all-weather including New Road Side who made all to win easily at Southwell. That performance was more pleasing to the eye than the victories of either Delizia or Athas An Bhean and she gets the vote at around 6-1.

The second race on the card is a typical York handicap over a mile and a half. You can make a case for most of them but a couple of form lines suggest that Notarised could go well here for Mark Johnston. He was third at Hamilton last time out and finished seven lengths ahead of Esteaming. He meets that one on similar terms and is worth each-way support at around 12-1.

Top Tug and Ajman Bridge will be popular but don’t represent great value. Top Tug ran pretty flat at Newmarket first time out, although he will be better for this trip, while Ajman Bridge has not won since his second career start and yet has gone up over a stone in the weights.

Our final selection is Yasmeen in the 3.45 race. John Gosden’s filly looked very smart when winning on her debut at Newbury and the form has been boosted since. She can get the better of stable companion Sperry who won well at Ascot in the blue of Godolphin.

New Road Side 2.10 @6-1 BetVictor

Notarised 2.40 @12-1 Bet365

Brown Panther 3.15 @9-4 William Hill

Yasmeen 3.45 @5-2 William Hill

York Preview – Thursday 14th May

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Betcirca followers were up 25 points to level stakes on Wednesday’s sports betting advice. Mahsoob (7-2) started the ball rolling at York and was followed by Algar Lad (16-1). The Champions League semi-final second leg between Real Madrid and Juventus yielded a further ten points profit after we correctly forecast the score line, the first goal scorer and the number of goals.

Thursday’s racing at York is all about the Dante Stakes, a race which looks certain to spark a major shake-up in the Epsom Derby betting. I have been scratching my head to think of an occasion when a handicap winner was made Derby favourite and I have so far failed to come up with one. Even trainer John Gosden has described it as “a bit silly” but we will know how silly after the Dante. Jack Hobbs is the horse in question and he is joined by stable companion Golden Horn.

Aidan O’Brien’s John F Kennedy ran too badly to be true last time but does not carry maximum stable confidence and I’m sticking with the Group 1 form of Elm Park. I followed him as a two-year-old and missing the Guineas due to the ground may have been a blessing in disguise.

After solving the conundrum of the six-furlong sprint on Wednesday I have to take a stab at Thursday’s five furlong dash. David O’Meara sounded certain that he would not be running Algar Lad again so I’m going for Desert Law who was not far behind him at Ripon. Unlike many of these, he is better at five furlongs than six.

Bragging is difficult to oppose having won at Newmarket despite looking likely to need the race. That was her first race beyond a mile and she was finishing strongly so could be quite a force over ten furlongs. Several of her rivals would prefer more cut in the ground and/or a longer trip.

David O’Meara could strike in another competitive handicap with Fort Bastion. He went for a repeat win in the Thirsk Hunt Cup but never saw daylight all the way up the straight, finishing on a tight rein. He can reverse the form with runner-up Off Art who is lightly raced and feared most.

Tendu looks solid in the sprint at 4.20 after chasing home Limato at Ascot. The winner is surely going to take high honours in the sprinting division this season. Moscato is a typically progressive Sir Mark Prescott stayer and can extend his sequence to five in the last.

Desert Law 2.10 @14-1 William Hill

Bragging 2.40 @5-2 Paddy Power

Elm Park 3.15 @4-1 Paddy Power

Fort Bastion 3.45 @8-1 Betfair

Tendu 4.20 @5-4 Ladbrokes

Moscato 5.20 @11-4 Ladbrokes

York Preview – Wednesday 13th May

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The York Dante meeting will surely clarify the picture for this year’s Epsom Derby. I can’t remember ever having a handicap winner at the head of the Derby market going into the York meeting but Jack Hobbs has some serious rivals including Elm Park and John F Kennedy. The big race is on Thursday but there is some cracking entertainment on the opening day including the Musidora Stakes.

Together Forever was expected to line up in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket but she missed the race, along with stable companion Found. That horse was beaten at odds-on when she did finally appear and Together Forever shoulders a 4lbs Group 1 penalty on Wednesday. Her main rival is Star Of Seville who was a comfortable winner at Newbury for John Gosden. She beat Ooty Hill and the disappointing Winters Moon so it is easy to pick holes in the form.

The day’s feature race is the Group 2 Duke of York Stakes with some very promising sprinters in action. I am reluctant to pass over Naadirr, having tipped him ahead of his impressive win at Doncaster. However, I followed Muthmir religiously last season and he ended the season in fine style by winning the Portland Handicap. Lightning Moon is another worthy of respect and is unbeaten in three starts. It certainly looks a cracking renewal and should provide a good guide to the top sprints this season.

Mahsoob also gave us a winner when beating a big field at Newbury. I was concerned about his high draw that day and he has not fared any better here with stall 18. Field Of Fame was third that day and also ran a terrific race for such an inexperienced horse. We’ll keep faith with Mahsoob who has some very ambitious entries this summer including the Eclipse at Sandown.

The sprint handicap at 2.40 looks wide open and a good case can be made for Pipers Note and Polybius. I’m going to take a chance on Algar Lad who didn’t see much daylight up the far rail last time but was only beaten a little over a length at the line. He looks worth each-way support at around 16-1.

It could be a great day for William Haggas who follows Muthmir with two live chances in handicap races. Foreign Diplomat won with his head in his chest last time out and Graham Lee will be looking to deliver him late on in the 4.20. Ryan Moore gets the leg up on the unbeaten Osaruveetil in the final race. He looks to have been let in lightly off a mark of 81 after winning well at Kempton. Frankie Dettori can steer home Dheban for Richard Hannon in receipt of 10lbs from Ravenhoe in the two-year-old race.

Mahsoob 2.10 @7-2 William Hill

Algar Lad 2.40 @16-1 Paddy Power (each-way)

Muthmir 3.15 @5-1 Paddy Power

Together Forever 3.45 @7-4 Paddy Power

Foreign Diplomat 4.20 @7-1 Betfair

Dheban 4.50 @Evens Bet365

Osaruveetil 5.20 @11-2 Betfair