Category: Horse Racing Tips

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Grand National Trial Update

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The scourge of ante-post betting is of course the dreaded non-runner. Monbeg Dude has been scratched from Saturday’s Haydock Grand National Trial because his scope was less than 100%. That’s thrown a spanner in the works but don’t rip up your ticket just yet, the meeting could yet be abandoned. At least we still have 8-1 about Hawkes Point who is now as short as 5-1 in places.

The most interesting development is the booking of Tony McCoy for our old friend Merry King. You may recall that we backed the horse each-way in the Hennessy (5th) and the Welsh National (5th). The old saying about follow them over a cliff springs to mind but it wouldn’t take a lot of improvement to win this.

On his last start he looked well beaten turning for home but then seemed to get his second wind and ran on to be a close third. That was with a first time visor and the jury is still out as to whether or not it helped. He is 4lbs better off with the winner Wychwoods Brook and it would seem daft not to include him each-way at 9-1.

Another old favourite of mine, Burton Port, was taken out along with Scottish National winner Godsmejudge. I would imagine that the likely heavy ground was the reason for both. I’ve seen a couple of speculative tips for Burton Port for the Grand National.

He is certainly well enough handicapped if he returned to the kind of form that enabled him to finish fourth in the Gold Cup. Unfortunately he hasn’t shown the slightest glimmer as yet this season but Donald McCain will do his best to rekindle the flame. I am not tempted in at this stage but he’s one to keep an eye on.

The other big weekend races, weather permitting, are the Ascot Chase and the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton. I don’t think either will have much of a bearing on the Cheltenham festival, although it will be interesting to see Zarkandar in action against Melodic Rendezvous. Paul Nicholls is aiming Zarkandar at the World Hurdle this season but he’s racing at two miles for his prep.

Captain Chris ought to win the Ascot Chase as he’s meeting lower rated rivals at level weights. Many of those are under a cloud including Riverside Theatre and Medermit. If there is a horse capable of causing a surprise it is probably Rolling Aces. For whatever reason, he folded tamely last time out but had previously won at Down Royal and showed some decent form last year.

Merry King (each-way) at 9-1 Coral

UAE 2000 Guineas Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The racing at Meydan has been a welcome ray of sunshine amongst the gloom and doom of the British winter. With the news relaying stories of the Thames floods and hurricane force winds, it is easy to see why Dubai makes plenty of appeal! The results have also been kind to this column with three wins out of four including Ihtimal’s scintillating display last week.

The colts go on show tomorrow for the UAE 2000 Guineas. On the face of it, this will have little or no bearing on the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket but there is an interesting mix of international performers taking part. Saeed bin Suroor has won this race four times already and is represented by Emirates Flyer and Paximadia.

Emirates Flyer was a winning tip for us last time out, holding off the late run of Safety Check. Five previous trial winners have gone on to win the race proper so it would hardly be a surprise to see Emirates Flyer run well. I liked his game effort in the Redcar Two-year-old Trophy last season and he’s sure to keep plugging away.

Paximadia is a Group Two winner in Australia and has reportedly been pleasing connections but it is Charlie Appleby’s Safety Check that I like for tomorrow’s race. He was a big strong two-year-old and has obviously trained on judged by his run in the trial. He was spotted going easily two furlongs out on the inside but couldn’t quite get to the winner. He’s got a good draw on the inside and is expected to appreciate the step up in distance.

His stable companion Long John could be the main threat. Appleby says that the Group 1 Caulfield Guineas winner shows nothing at home so they are really in the dark going into the race. Apparently he was the same in Australia but still produced the goods on race day.

If untangling the Godolphin runners is tough, then working through the Mike De Kock team is impossible! He has won this five times and has four runners tomorrow. Christophe Soumillon presumably had the pick and has chosen Warwick winner Wednaan. The concern about him is that he was sick when arriving over in Dubai so missed the trial. He could be one to watch for another day.

Nezar and Jallota are more familiar names that help to remind us of warmer days! Nezar was a promising youngster and landed some confident bets at Chester in a nursery before struggling in a higher grade. Jallota competed in a stack of top two-year-old races for Mick Channon last year and is a quality colt. I’m just hopeful that Safety Check can confirm the promise of that trial run.

Safety Check at 12-1 Bet365

Haydock Grand National Trial Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The weights were announced today for the Aintree Grand National on April 5th. This means that trainers can now stop attempting to pull the wool over the handicapper’s eyes as the die is cast!

The handicapper has decided to be lenient to the 13-year-old Tidal Bay and has reduced his rating to keep him closer to his rivals, albeit with top weight of 11st 10lb. It is not only the weight but also the fact that no horse of his age has won the National for over 90 years.

You cannot criticise his performances this season with a gallant third in the Welsh National under 11st 12lb and a good second to Last Instalment in the Irish Hennessy on Sunday. You could see him finishing third or fourth in the Gold Cup but Paul Nicholls has decided to go for the National and good luck to them.

Saturday’s Grand National Trial at Haydock has attracted several leading National hopes, none more so than Michael Scudamore’s Monbeg Dude. He was beaten a country mile in this last year by Well Refreshed and is 7lbs better off Gary Moore’s gelding. In terms of subsequent form, they have gone in opposite directions. Monbeg Dude won a Grade 3 chase at Cheltenham last time whereas Well Refreshed was pulled up in the Welsh National.

Moore has reported that Well Refreshed returned a sick horse from Chepstow and that his work and tests will decide his participation this week. I really fancied him in the Welsh National but it is difficult to be confident after such a poor run. You would have to side with Monbeg Dude who has 10st 9lb in the National and could be the clear favourite if he wins this.

Venetia Williams could run last year’s runner-up Rigadin De Beauchene and Ffos Las winner Emperor’s Choice. The former has not run for a long time and will surely be found out on this ground while Emperor’s Choice landed a nice gamble last time but this looks a much tougher task.

The big danger to Monbeg Dude looks to be Hawkes Point who ran a great race at Chepstow, just failing to catch Mountainous. The form of the race is difficult to assess but Tidal Bay was just behind him and ran well in Ireland. Nicholls has not enjoyed the best of luck in recent weeks with several of his stable stars beaten but you’d have to consider Hawkes Point a major contender here.

He, along with Merry King and Godsmejudge, are also entered at Ascot but you would imagine Nicholls will go for the stronger trial. Three miles at Ascot may not be sufficient a stamina test for this out-and-out stayer.

Monbeg Dude at 7-1 William Hill

Hawkes Point at 8-1 Boylesports, Unibet, 888Sport

Last Instalment over-priced at 14-1 for Gold Cup

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Leopardstown was the scene of several key Cheltenham trials on Sunday, none more so than the Irish Hennessy Gold Cup. The feature race at Cheltenham was beginning to look like a two-horse race between Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti but Ireland could have produced a surprise package.

The favourite was First Lieutenant, second to Bobs Worth in the Lexus Chase and second in the Ryanair last season. Although he was a winner over an extended three miles at Aintree, there has always been a suspicion that he does not truly stay the Gold Cup trip.

Providing a line to the form was the evergreen Tidal Bay who is being aimed at the Grand National this year instead of the Gold Cup or World Hurdle. The joker in the pack was Last Instalment, a highly progressive chaser until meeting with an injury that side-lined him for two seasons. He had made a fine comeback when just outpaced by Texas Jack over two and a half miles at Thurles but was expected to appreciate the step up in trip.

Last Instalment produced some mighty leaps in front and always seemed to be going comfortably whereas First Lieutenant came under pressure surprisingly early. Tidal Bay was his usual quirky self with Ruby Walsh shovelling on the coal one minute and apparently going well the next. First Instalment showed no signs of weakening and extended the winning margin to more than eight lengths at the line.

It is rare for bookmakers to differ markedly in their assessment of such a big trial but Coral reacted by slashing Last Instalment to 6-1 third favourite. Ladbrokes disagree and are holding out for 14-1. That sounds a cracking each-way bet for a horse that could produce an ever better performance next month.

My ante-post bets for the race were Silviniaco Conti at 9-1 and Dynaste at 25-1. The King George winner must have a cracking chance whilst Dynaste’s run that day was too bad to be true. If David Pipe can get him to the race he could still spring a surprise. But 14-1 is simply too big a price to ignore for the leading Irish hope and I can’t see it lasting very long.

Last Instalment (each-way) at 14-1 Ladbrokes

Ihtimal value at 16-1 for 1000 Guineas

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Early February may seem an odd time to be talking about the first classics of the new turf season but Ihtimal has already laid down her marker for the 1000 Guineas. The Godolphin filly was a smart two-year-old who improved with every race and she has clearly trained on.

On Thursday, she reappeared in the UAE 1000 Guineas at Meydan and produced a devastating turn of foot to leave her rivals floundering. Her victims included a couple of decent four-year-olds and the smart Wedding Ring, also in the blue of Godolphin.

I first started following Ihtimal after she finished fourth to Berkshire at Royal Ascot in the summer. As soon as she stepped up to seven furlongs she began to fulfil her potential, winning the Sweet Solera at Newmarket and then following up in brilliant fashion at Doncaster in the May Hill. That race is nearly always a good guide to the classics and she certainly looked the part that day.

She was beaten on her final start of the season but I’m convinced that it was down to over-confidence on the part of her rider. Silvestre De Sousa may have overdone the waiting tactics a little and she quickened without ever getting to grips with Chriselliam or Rizeena. That was the best fillies’ race of the season in my book and I’m surprised to see the likes of Miss France, Lucky Kristale and Tapestry ahead of Ihtimal in the betting.

Tragically, Chriselliam has had to put down this week following a foot infection. She put up a brilliant performance to win the Breeders Cup in scintillating style and would have been a leading contender at Newmarket. I would imagine Clive Brittain go straight to the Guineas with Rizeena unless he decides to run in the Nell Gwynn but Ihtimal has the UAE Oaks next on her agenda.

Godolphin’s trial winners do not always go on to run well in the Guineas but it is telling that Saeed bin Suroor has already described Ihtimal as the best of his fillies. Coral are still offering a very tempting 16-1 about her for the 1000 Guineas. She could well stay the Oaks trip as well and I don’t think the 20-1 will last long if she puts in a similar display next time.

1000 Guineas Ihtimal at 16-1 Coral, Boylesports

Oaks Ihtimal 20-1 Bet365, Totesport

UAE 1000 Guineas Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

A couple of weeks ago we enjoyed a welcome distraction in Dubai with Wedding Ring winning impressively for Charlie Appleby. The filly earned a quote of 25-1 for the Newmarket Guineas but she may not be the best of the Godolphin team.

Last season I was a big fan of Ihtimal and she returns to action tomorrow in the UAE 1000 Guineas and a clash with Wedding Ring. The two met at Newmarket in July with the latter coming out on top by a quarter of a length but it was Ihtimal that went on to Group 2 success.

She is a daughter of Shamardal out of a Dubai Destination mare and went on to finish third to Berkshire at Royal Ascot before losing her maiden tag in the Group 3 Sweet Solera Stakes. That was her first run at seven furlongs and she was even more impressive in taking the Group 2 May Hill Stakes at Doncaster in September.

Silvestre De Sousa held her up before swooping late and quickly putting two lengths between herself and Majeyda.  She was given one more run in the Fillies Mile back at Newmarket later that month but De Sousa may have overdone the waiting tactics. He was up against some smart fillies and gave Ihtimal a lot do, running on strongly to finish three lengths behind Chriselliam and Rizeena. Chriselliam went on to win at the Breeders’ Cup and that is the best form among the fillies last year.

On official figures, Ihtimal has around 8lbs in hand of Wedding Ring and it would be no surprise to see them finish 1, 2. Mick De Kock saddles three in the race with Christophe Soumillon preferring Mensoora. The daughter of Jet Master was disappointing behind Certify last week and will need to step up considerably to trouble the Godolphin pair.

Illuminating Dream is an interesting runner for David Brown in the colours of Qatar Racing. She won well at Beverley in August but was beaten by Bremner at Ayr on her final start. She is by High Chaparral so is bred to get a trip and the same could be said of Feedyah, a game winner over a mile at Ascot on her final start at two years.

Oxsana has finished behind Wedding Ring on all three occasions that the pair have met. Her best effort was when getting to within a quarter of a length over six furlongs at Newmarket. She is well held on her last run at Meydan.

Ihtimal 15-8 Bet365