Category: Horse Racing Tips

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Denman Chase Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Once again we face a week of uncertainty as regards the prospects of racing at the weekend. The Betfair Hurdle (formerly the Tote Gold Trophy, Schweppes Gold Trophy) is the big race of the week. Those who remember it as the Schweppes will be half expecting the meeting to be abandoned as it used to be even money whether or not the meeting would take place.

I have just read that one forecast has estimated 70mm of rain for the Newbury area. If that is true, we could be having a raft race instead! Assuming that particular forecast is wrong, let’s take a look at the Denman Chase.

The hot favourite here is the popular grey Al Ferof who was third in the King George VI Chase at Kempton. The thing about this one is that he is yet to win over three miles and it is personally reasonable to doubt his stamina. It is worth remembering that he won the two-mile Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and he has only had three starts in the past couple of seasons.

I’m certainly prepared to take him on but the question is with what? Triolo D’Alene is my long-term Grand National fancy and I’ve noted that Nicky Henderson has pulled him out of two races recently due to the heavy ground. The weights for the National are due out next week and I can’t see him risking getting a late hike in the weights.

Harry Topper interests me after running on stoutly to finish third behind The Giant Bolster and Rocky Creek in the Argento Chase. His jumping was a bit deliberate at times and it was a bit of a stop-go effort. Newbury should suit him better and he has to be respected.

However, after last weekend’s Venetia Williams benefit, I am going to side with Katenko. He was fancied by a few people to run a big race in the Gold Cup last year before injury intervened. I wouldn’t quite put him in that class but he loves this ground and ran a stormer in the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock.

He kept plugging away and was not beaten far in fourth place, a marked improvement on his previous efforts. The Williams horses last weekend ran as though they had improved a stone overnight and Katenko only needs a few pounds to go close here.

Katenko at 6-1 Bet Victor

Betfair Hurdle Ante-Post update

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Twenty-nine horses have been left in the Betfair Hurdle including both Irish Saint and Irving from the Paul Nicholls stable. The Trainer has warned that Irving is unlikely to run if the going is extremely testing and that seems to be heavy hint as to the direction our cash should be going in.

Irish Saint bolted up in the mud at Ascot last time and has been raised 12lbs by the handicapper. Because of the conditions of Saturday’s race, he gets in here with only a 5lbs penalty so is theoretically 7lb’s well in at the weights.

These handicap good things don’t always win but, with the going currently soft and heavy in places, the omens are good for Irish Saint. Noel Fehily keeps the ride and I imagine that he couldn’t believe how well he was going at Ascot on this horse. He had previously run in the Ladbroke and got bogged down in the middle of the chasing pack.

That race may also hold the key to his biggest danger as David Pipe’s Dell’ Arca was still in touch when unseating his rider three out. The form for the big two-mile handicaps is really hard to fathom this season with neither the Greatwood nor the Ladbroke being boosted since. I backed Sametegal (2nd) in the Greatwood but he was slaughtered up at Musselburgh on Sunday.

It is difficult to be too confident about how Dell’ Arca will run as Pipe has had a couple of notable disappointments with Dynaste and The Liquidator. The victory of Red Sherlock recovered a bit of faith so we’ll give Dell’ Arca an each-way chance here.

Alan King’s Montbazon was on my horse to follow list a couple of seasons ago but has been out injured since finishing fourth at the festival behind Cinders And Ashes. This would be a very ambitious place to start him off by King has entered him in the Champion Hurdle so obviously believes the talent is still there. With the stable still recovering from the virus, I can’t support him here but I shall be keeping a close eye on him.

Of the others, Cheltenian is another that has had his problems and is hard to weigh up on a win in a poor race at Uttoxeter. His trainer managed to get that good hurdler Snap Tie back to win a big prize a couple of seasons ago so you cannot rule him out here.

Irish Saint at 7-1 Bet365

Dell’ Arca (each-way) at 9-1 Coral

¼ odds 1,2,3,4

16-1 Whisper for Coral Cup

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Surprisingly, all three national hunt meetings went ahead on Saturday despite the heavy rain of recent days. With inspections called at Sandown, Ffos Las and Wetherby, I had virtually given it up as a lost cause and focussed on the all-weather at Lingfield.

Admittedly, Sandown had been forced to abandon their hurdle races in favour of an all-chase card, but it was turf racing nonetheless. Nicky Henderson elected to run Oscar Whisky with good prize money on offer and little in the way of opposition. Sent off at 1-6, I was beginning to wonder if he may be pulled up at one point. Barry Geraghty clearly wasn’t that happy on the horse but was still close enough if his two rivals wilted in front of him.

That is pretty much what happened but I wonder what effect that race will have on his Cheltenham plans? Both trainer and jockey felt it was simply the going and the fact that Oscar Whisky is a stuff horse. With rain still lashing down in many parts, there were precious few genuine Cheltenham prospects on show but I believe the Welsh Champion Hurdle is a different matter altogether.

Since backing Saphir Du Rheu to defy a 15lbs rise in the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton, I’ve become a fan of the grey. I was quite confident that he could defy another 13lb hike at Ffos Las and he duly obliged, but only just. The reason was a terrier-like performance from Henderson’s Whisper who had finished nearly ten lengths adrift of Saphir Du Rheu at Sandown.

Whisper had gone on to win easily since and the net result was that he was 16lbs better off with the Nicholls’ horse. Harry Derham, who must be just about the best 5lb claimer about, elected to make the running and Andrew Tinkler followed his every move. The two horses drew nearly 20 lengths clear of the third horse on the run to the line, Saphir Du Rheu clinging on by a short head.

The bookmakers have put up Saphir Du Rheu as favourite for the Coral Cup but I don’t think he will run. Nicholls is itching to put him over a fence and is already talking Gold Cups. I just don’t see him running the horse with the best part of 12 stone on his back in a 30-runner field. As far as I know, there are no such provisos about Whisper and he looks worth a bet at 16-1.

Whisper (Coral Cup) at 16-1 Paddy Power

Lingfield Saturday Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The weather is threatening to wash away the jump racing action in Britain this weekend with early morning inspections at all three courses. Given that the going is already described as heavy and the forecast is for heavy overnight rain, I fear the worst and think it would be a waste of time studying the form.

Fortunately the all-weather racing goes on regardless and I’ve managed to pick out a couple for a quick Saturday double. I expect Channel 4 will divert their cameras to leafy Lingfield if Sandown is abandoned so we may get some entertainment after all.

The ever-smiling George Margarson saddles Rebellious Guest tomorrow in an effort to follow up last week’s comfortable victory. I wouldn’t blame you if you are struggling to distinguish between one “guest” and another in the Margarson stable but this one was a useful two-year-old. He won two of his first three races but never really went on from there and has been toiling in handicaps on the turf.

He gained his first win for a couple of years last week when coming through sweetly under Jamie Spencer to win going away. That was over course and distance so we need have no fears about ground, trip etc. Tom Queally is on board tomorrow with Spencer riding market rival Apostle for David Simcock.

Apostle just about last home over seven furlongs last time and has gone up 4lbs for his win. A bigger concern is the fact that all of his wins have been over six and seven furlongs. With Rebellious Guest running off bottom weight, it would be disappointing if he cannot get past Apostle in the final furlong here. Margarson’s gelding is racing off just 86 and used to be rated 99 on the turf. Clearly there is room for him to improve from this rating.

Mark Johnston’s Blue Wave goes for a quick hat-trick in the coral.co.uk Handicap at 3.30. He is up 10lbs for his latest win at Southwell but he looked like he could go around again that day. He originally ran in the blue of Godolphin but eventually found his way to Johnston’s yard and ran some decent races on turf. Probably his best effort was when just caught by Van Percy at Haydock. Cathy Gannon managed to extricate her mount just in time to collar Blue Wave on the post.

He’s a son of Raven’s Pass and could still be improving enough to take this. He shapes like an out-and-out stayer so this mile and a half is barely enough to get him warmed up.

Lingfield 2.55 Rebellious Guest 7-2 Bet365

Lingfield 3.30 Blue Wave 11-4 888Sport, Unibet

Betfair Hurdle Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The weather is continuing to play havoc with the racing programme in the UK and it is not looking that great for the weekend. The bookmakers have not even bothered pricing up the Saturday races so perhaps they know something we don’t?

If the weather relents by the following weekend, the Betfair Handicap Hurdle is scheduled for Newbury. Last year’s runaway success for My Tent Or Yours seems to have put everyone in the mind-set that a smart novice is what is required to win this. Admittedly Darlan was travelling ominously well the year before when he fell but he was exceptional too. What a shame that his life was so cruelly cut short.

The “talking horse” this year is Irving, trained by Paul Nicholls. He is currently vying for favouritism in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and there is no doubt that he is pretty smart. Having said that, he is not exactly thrown in on 11st 2lb against some seasoned handicappers.

Although I tipped him when he won impressively at Ascot last time, I’d be worried about those that he beat. Prince Siegfried had not yet been shaken off when he fell and he ran deplorably next time. The third and fourth have also been well beaten so I don’t think we should rushing to take 7-1 in a race like this.

Having mapped out this race for Irving, you get the feeling that Nicholls was taken slightly by surprise when Irish Saint romped home at Ascot in the heavy ground. It is true that he expected some improvement but he won so easily that the trainer is almost obliged to run him here under a 5lb penalty. The handicapper has stuck him up 12lbs for winning that race so he is officially 7lbs better off here.

The doubts are whether he will be so effective over this shorter trip and on potentially better ground. I’d also wonder whether he will get such a free run here as they tend to go like a bat out of hell in this race and we’ve seen him struggle in similar contests. If the field cuts up and the going rides heavy, then Irish Saint would be a logical choice.

I was really impressed by Flaxen Flare’s run in the Boylesports hurdle at Leopardstown last week. I had gone through that race inside out and come to the conclusion that he was just too high in the handicap but he ran a blinder to finish second to Gilgamboa. The vibes are that the winner will miss this and head to Cheltenham but I have no idea whether Flaxen Flare will have a crack at this race.

Cheltenian has been through the wars since winning the Cheltenham bumper in 2011 and it’s hard to fancy him on the back of an easy win in an egg-and-spoon race at Uttoxeter. He did hit a few hurdles there and this will be a different kettle of fish if we get a big field.

With several trainers holding multiple entries, the sensible policy at the moment is to sit tight and wait for the next acceptance stage. The weights could go up and change the complexion of the race completely. Watch this space!

Grand National ante-post update

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Grand National may seem a long way off with the excitement still building towards the Cheltenham festival but the entries were announced today. 115 horses have been entered for the £1million race including Tidal Bay and Long Run as expected.

This is good news for our earlier selections Triolo D’Alene and Monbeg Dude as it means they will get in with 11st or less to carry. There are no real surprises in the list other than perhaps the number of older horses that are still being entered. One who won’t be there is last year’s 66-1 winner Aurora’s Encore after he suffered a nasty injury last weekend.

He’s been operated on for a fracture to his off-fore and all racing fans will be hoping that he makes a good recovery and gets the retirement that he deserves. I was a little surprised that he was kept in training this year. Neptune Collonges was promptly retired after his gallant success and it would have been nice to see Aurora’s Encore given the same courtesy.

Triolo D’Alene

Nicky Henderson’s Triolo D’Alene was installed as favourite after winning the Hennessy in November but hasn’t reappeared since. He was due to run at Ascot and Cheltenham but Henderson decided not to risk him on the heavy ground. He was not that happy with the 11lbs rise in the handicap after Newbury but he seems to be making sure that it doesn’t go any higher. I’d be surprised if we see him before the weights come out on February 11th.

The Hennessy form was not exactly franked by Rocky Creek’s defeat last weekend but I don’t believe  he was at his best. Paul Nicholls believes that a setback after Newbury took the edge off him and  he probably just blew up in the closing stages.

Monbeg Dude

At the start of the season I thought that Monbeg Dude would need heavy ground to win a National and that he may be on the small side for the big fences. I changed my mind after his impressive win at Cheltenham last time out where he jumped well and won a shade cosily on good to soft ground. He is still available at 25-1 in places and that seems a fair price for a Welsh National winner.

Godsmejudge

I’d like to put up Godsmejudge as my third early fancy for the race at 33-1 with Coral. He was pulled up last time at Sandown but the stable has been laid low with a virus and it seems safe to ignore that run. He had previously run very well at Cheltenham and he could provide Alan King with his first National success.

He really attacked his fences at Ayr when winning the Scottish National and he looks a proper Aintree sort if King can get him there in one piece.

*ante-post Triolo D’Alene 20-1

*ante-post Monbeg Dude 25-1

Godsmejudge at 33-1 Coral