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Windsor Preview – Monday 11th May

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Windsor on a Monday night is always popular with punters and there is a typically competitive card this evening. The feature race is the Royal Windsor Stakes at 7.20 with Shifting Power expected to start a short-priced favourite.

This race is something of a conundrum with none of the seven runners ideally suited by the good to fast ground. Shifting Power certainly has the best form on his Irish 2000 Guineas run behind Kingman in soft ground and he was fourth in the Newmarket classic on good ground. He produced his best run in very testing ground in France and he did seem to carry his head awkwardly at Sandown last time.

Clon Brulee really needs a mile and a quarter while Baltic Knight is fitted with blinkers for the first time. I like Intransigent but he’s never won over a mile or at this time of year. By process of elimination, I’m going for Complicit who has been running well on the all-weather. Tom Queally tried to steal a march on Tryster in the all-weather championships but was just run out of it in the final stages.

The two-year-old picture takes a while to settle down and experience counts for a lot in these early races. Alaskan Phantom ran well over course and distance on his debut for Daniel Kubler and could be worth a bet at around 9-2. The obvious dangers are the unraced Bournemouth Belle and Tears In My Eyes, from the yards of Richard Hannon and Jeremy Noseda respectively.

Ryan Moore seldom leaves Windsor without a winner and he should score on Genres in the 6.20. He made a very pleasing debut when just beaten by Exosphere having headed that horse inside the final furlong. John Gosden’s colt only needs to find normal improvement to get off the mark here. The main threat could come from Andrew Balding’s Scarlet Minstrel.

The 6.50 is a trappy handicap with only five remaining runners. You can make a case for each of them but I just prefer the claims of top weight Subcontinent. He put up a gutsy display to win at Doncaster last time out and has only been raised 3lbs. Shadow Rock ran well for a long way at Salisbury and could pose a bigger threat than the favourite Quick Defence.

Alaskan Phantom 5.50 @9-2 William Hill

Genres 6.20 @5-6 Ladbrokes

Subcontinent 6.50 @3-1 Boylesports

Complicit 7.20 @5-1 Bet365

Doncaster Preview – Monday 11th May

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Betcirca followers enjoyed a French Guineas double on Sunday with Make Believe (6-1) and Ervedya (15-8) as well as a 9.5 point profit on Sunday’s Premiership football. This week’s racing action will revolve around the Dante meeting at York which will hopefully shed some light on a very murky Epsom Derby picture.

The pick of Monday’s action comes from Doncaster with eight races starting at 2.10. The maiden race at 3.50 has brought together two very promising colts that finished runner-up on their racecourse debuts.

The Sir Michael Stoute-trained Mustaaqeem is a son of Dynaformer out of a Danzig mare and finished second in the Wood Ditton at Newmarket. That race didn’t look anything special this year but Mustaaqeem stuck on really well up the far rail and is a very imposing individual. His market rival is Druids Ridge, trained by John Gosden.

He made his debut Newbury where he was beaten a length by Sahaafy after making his challenge on the wide outside. That was a very commendable first effort and he travelled nicely for a long way. I’m just going for the Stoute colt because the stable’s runners usually improve significantly for the outing.

The feature race is a seven-furlong handicap at 4.25 with sixteen runners. The one that I like here is Shared Equity, trained by Jedd O’Keeffe and ridden by Graham Lee. He has won three of his seven starts including a win at Newcastle over this distance. He ran a great race when third in a six-furlong handicap at the Lincoln meeting and can reverse the form with runner-up Farlow.

Shared Equity was drawn on the far side that day and Lee tried to keep a bit up his sleeve for the final stages. He was chopped off in his run when passed by eventual winner Tatlisu but ran on again close home. The return to seven furlongs could see him returning to the winners’ enclosure.

We enjoyed a couple of big priced winners in three-year-old handicaps at Chester with Not Never (11-1) and Navigate (10-1). The 5.00 at Doncaster is another interesting handicap with some promising runners, notably the unbeaten Mulaaseq.

He is trained by Marcus Tregoning and came with a late run to beat Nortron by a short-head here on his debut. Paul Hanagan was looking after him in the closing stages and it looked for a long time as though he would finish a promising third or fourth. Once Hanagan got after him, he quickened really nicely and he could prove better than his rating of 80.

The one I fear most is the Ralph Beckett-trained Master Of Irony, a winner at Lingfield on the all-weather in December. He did everything wrong that day, starting slowly and running very wide on the bend into the straight. It was to his credit that he was still able to win quite comfortably and he is the obvious threat.

Mustaaqeem 3.50 @11-10 Betfair

Shared Equity 4.25 @5-1 Ladbrokes

Mulaaseq 5.00 @9-4 Betfair

French 1000 Guineas Preview

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Ervedya had originally been aimed at the Newmarket 1000 Guineas but the Aga Khan’s filly was re-routed to Longchamp in search of softer ground. The move looks likely to pay off with good to soft conditions prevailing on Sunday as she bids to win the French equivalent for His Highness The Aga Khan.

The daughter of Siyouni has won four of her six starts and was a top class two-year-old.  She won her first three races including a Group 3 at Deauville before finishing third to The Wow Signal in the Group 1 Prix Morny.

She then finished runner-up to Found in the Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac but connections are convinced that she would have been closer but for her wide draw. She was on the outside of the twelve-runner field and had to be chased up by Christophe Soumillon to get a good position. The effort may have taken its toll in the closing stages as she finished two and a half lengths adrift of the O’Brien filly.

Ironically, she has drawn exactly the same stall on Sunday although she does have two horses on her outside. She made her seasonal debut in very soft ground at Maisons-Laffitte in April where she beat Ameenah by a length and three-quarters. The runner-up is well drawn in stall five so has place claims but it is difficult to see her reversing the form with the favourite.

Andre Fabre is represented by Mexican Gold and Soft Drink. The former looks much the more dangerous of the pair and is a by Medaglia d’Oro out of a Gone West mare. She is unbeaten after two races including a Group 3 at Longchamp and breaks from stall nine.

Sainte Amarante has won her last two starts including a Listed race at Saint-cloud while Fontanelice was seven lengths behind Ervedya in April. She was also behind Mexican Gold when fourth last time out, doing all of her best work in the closing stages. Connections of the favourite would obviously feel happier if she were drawn in a single figure barrier but Soumillon’s experience should hold him in good stead.

The British and Irish challenge has surprisingly evaporated with Irish Rookie and Royal Razalma looking unlikely to feature here.

Ervedya @15-8 William Hill

French 2000 Guineas Preview

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Aidan O’Brien saddled Gleneagles to win the English 2000 Guineas and attempts to add the French equivalent on Sunday at Longchamp with Highland Reel.

Highland Reel was a late switch to Paris having been as short as 8-1 in the ante-post betting at Newmarket. He won his maiden by 12 lengths at Gowran Park to earn a tilt at the Group 2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood. Joseph O’Brien was in the saddle that day and he beat Tupi convincingly despite pulling hard in the early stages of the race. Ryan Moore takes over on Sunday and looks sure to play a leading role from stall 7.

Stable companion War Envoy would not be out of it if he can reproduce his fine run in the Grand Criterium in October. He was only a length behind Gleneagles that day in fifth place and the race also included Guineas runner-up Territories. However, he has not shown that level of form since and was soundly beaten behind Kool Kompany in a modest looking renewal of the Craven Stakes.

Charles Hills will have been left frustrated after Greenham Stakes winner Muhaarar was drawn in stall 18. He beat subsequent Guineas flop Estidhkaar at Newbury, although third home Ivawood ran creditably to sneak into the frame in the colts’ classic.

Frankie Dettori partners Karar in the colours of Al Shaqab racing, a six lengths maiden winner before finishing second to Territories here last month. That form has been boosted by the winner’s subsequent run at Newmarket and Karar has plenty of scope for improvement.

Andre Fabre is responsible for Territories and he saddles Make Believe and New Bay here. The latter is lightly raced but looks to have been given a tough task from stall 16.  Make Believe is by 2000 Guineas winner Mafki out of a mare by Suave Dancer and ran a sound race on his reappearance in the Prix Djebel.

He travelled comfortably just behind the lead for most of the race and was just beaten on the nod by Ride Like The Wind. That horse disappointed at Newmarket but Make Believe left the clear impression that he would come on a lot for the race. Olivier Peslier is ideally situated in stall four and should be able to get a nice lead before going for home at the furlong pole.

Make Believe @9-2 Betfair

Lingfield Saturday Preview

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The Derby and Oaks trials are coming thick and fast at present and Lingfield is the venue for tomorrow’s classic pointers.

The Derby Trial at 2.55 has attracted just five runners with John Gosden’s Christophermarlowe odds-on favourite. The son of Tapit won the Blue Riband Trial at Epsom by four lengths from Future Empire but that horse was left trailing at Chester this week. He was more workmanlike than scintillating that day and Frankie Dettori is likely to make a long run for home on this long striding colt.

Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore won the Chester Vase with Hans Holbein and are represented here by Kilimanjaro, a colt by High Chaparral out of a Dalakhani mare. He looked very ordinary on his first two starts at Gowran but was an easy winner at Dundalk in April. He was fitted with a hood for the first time there and the grey is currently 50-1 for Epsom. Christophermarlowe is well ahead on official ratings and can provide Dettori with another big race winner.

Whatever the fate of Kilimanjaro, O’Brien and Moore will probably collect in the Oaks Trial at 2.20 with Wedding Vow. She has been beaten by smart fillies in her last two races. She failed by half a length to hold Zannda at Leopardstown and was then second to subsequent 1000 Guineas winner Legatissimo at Gowran Park. She is a beautifully-bred daughter of Galileo and nothing in this field has comparable form.

There are some more classy fillies on show in the Chartwell Fillies’ Stakes at 4.05, a Group 3 race over seven furlongs. Lightning Thunder was runner-up in both the English and Irish Guineas last season for Olly Stevens but was a beaten favourite at Royal Ascot and Haydock. It is hard to explain her poor performances there but a lengthy break may have sweetened her up.

Kiyoshi is very smart on her day and Oisin Murphy rides her for Charles Hills while Al Thakhira is another with top class form in the book. The race will also provide some clues as to where the three-year-olds stand against their elders. New Providence ran a cracking race when just touched off in the Nell Gwyn at Newmarket and has Ryan Moore in the saddle on Saturday.

Wedding Vow 2.20 @5-6 Paddy Power

Christophermarlowe 2.55 @4-7 Bet365

Lightning Thunder 4.05 @7-2 Betfair

Haydock Swinton Hurdle Preview

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The new National Hunt season is under way and adjusting to life after Tony McCoy. Haydock stages a mixed card of flat and jump races on Saturday but the feature event is the two-mile Swinton Handicap Hurdle.

The bookmakers have chalked up Handiwork as the early favourite on the strength of his fourth behind Cheltenian at Ayr in the Scottish Champion Hurdle. That title is a little misleading as it is now a handicap and Handiwork is just 2lbs better off with the winner. The Steve Gollings-trained gelding stormed through in the closing stages and he has the assistance of Nico de Boinville in the saddle.

Cheltenian is now nine years of age but has always been a classy performer, winning the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham back in 2011. He was a game second to Violet Dancer at Newbury in the Betfair Hurdle and thoroughly deserved his victory at Ayr.

Tony Martin was narrowly denied in the Chester Cup when Quick Jack was just beaten by Trip To Paris on Wednesday. He is targeting another big handicap here with The Plan Man, a five-year-old son of Jeremy.

He was fourth to Some Article at Fairyhouse in April and got no further than the fourth flight before unseating his rider last time. Evan Williams saddles Court Minstrel and last year’s winner Ballyglasheen and neither has particularly inspiring form figures. The former has been cutting little ice against the top two-mile chasers recently while Ballyglasheen was never a factor at Cheltenham or Aintree.

Brian Ellison is represented by Vodka Wells, a two and a quarter length winner from Harvey’s Hope at Hexham last time. That was his first victory since joining the trainer from France and he could still be improving.

Barizan is another previous winner of this race having won in 2013 but he too has been struggling to show his form of late. Oliver Sherwood saddles Rayvin Black who tried to set the pace at Sandown recently but could not sustain the effort and faded into seventh. He was a very game second to Ebony Express in the Imperial Cup but that was a real slog and it may have taken its toll.

David Pipe’s Rathealy has won modest contests at Plumpton and Warwick, both in very testing ground. He is up 7lbs for his latest win but the one that really catches the eye is Harry Whittington’s Arzal. He ran no sort of race in the Imperial Cup but something was clearly amiss that day and he bolted up at Chepstow last time in a novices’ hurdle.

Handiwork @9-1 Paddy Power

Arzal @9-1 Ladbrokes

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4