Category: Horse Racing

Aintree Grand National Day Preview

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We are about level with the bookmakers after the first two days but now for the big one! We have four ante-post bets on the Grand National with Shutthefrontdoor (20-1), Cause of Causes (33-1), Spring Heeled (33-1) and Monbeg Dude (33-1). Of those, only the latter has lengthened in price after a poor prep race and the going does seem to have gone against him.

If I had to name the horse that I fear most it would have to be Rocky Creek. He was very impressive at Kempton, has course experience and the Nicholls team have already struck with three winners this week. He is currently a best priced 10-1 and may be worth a saver, particularly if he goes to 12-1 between now and race time.

The Nicholls bandwagon can kick off Saturday’s card with a winner in As De Mee. He looked pretty average earlier in the season but has really improved on his last two starts and is proven over this trip. The same cannot be said of the majority of these while the Neptune form could be vulnerable.

Un De Sceaux’s late withdrawal from the second race has left a modest bunch for a Grade 1. God’s Own is the form choice but I don’t think he is much value at around 7-4 and I’d rather take a chance on Gary Moore’s improving Traffic Fluide.

Nico de Boinville must still be basking in the glory of his Cheltenham Gold Cup win and he can add the Liverpool Hurdle aboard Whisper. Nicky Henderson’s gelding was a real star for this column last season, winning at the festival and following up in this race. Like Saphir Du Rheu, he aborted his first tilt at chasing and the move can pay off.

Buywise looks to have a favourite’s chance in the Handicap Chase prior to the National. He stuck on really well up the hill at Cheltenham last time and most of  his rivals look out of form. Henderson’s return to form can continue with One For The Guv’nr in the next to complete a double for he and De Boinville. He has not been extended to win small races but looks to have been let in lightly here.

Alan King saddles three in the finale and preference is for Miss Crick, the mount of Wayne Hutchinson. She won well at Newbury and the Berkshire course usually throws up some decent bumper winners.

As De Mee 1.30 @14-1 Boylesports

Traffic Fluide 2.05 @5-1 Bet365

Whisper 2.50 @5-1 Ladbrokes

Buywise 3.25 @5-2 Betfair

Rocky Creek 4.15 @10-1 William Hill

One For The Guv’nr 5.10 @9-2 Betfair

Miss Crick 5.40 @12-1 Bet365

Grand National Blog – Shutthefrontdoor 8-1 top price

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Day 2 of Aintree was safely negotiated with a small profit courtesy of Theinval (tipped at 11-1) and Saphir Du Rheu (7-4). Hopes of a third winner bit the dust when Alpha Des Obeaux (18-1) crashed at the final flight in the 4.40 race.

The feature race was the Melling Chase at 3.25 but it turned into a procession as Don Cossack stormed clear to win by 26 lengths from Cue Card and Johns Spirit. AP has now collected a major prize on the first two days but the one he really wants is the National itself at 4.15 on Saturday.

The Bookmakers are bracing themselves for a predicted flood of sentimental support for McCoy on Saturday. Various figures have been floated between £30million and £50million, should Shutthefrontdoor give McCoy the fairytale send-off to his career. On Friday evening, some bookmakers had eased the favourite out to 8-1 but I would expect his SP to be closer to 5-1.

It was slightly worrying to see the general mayhem in the Topham Chase with only ten of the thirty runners completing the course. I am not sure whether the quick ground has anything to do with it but I am not yet aware of any fatalities. Bless The Wings made a mistake at the eighth fence which knocked him out of contention but that was a rare setback in a terrific week for Gordon Elliott. Hopefully his good fortune will continue with our 33-1 ante-post tip on Cause Of Causes.

Paul Nicholls will also be feeling full of confidence about his four runners after Saphir Du Rheu finally got his act together over fences. The talented grey was runner-up in the World Hurdle last time out but Nicholls has always believed that he has the potential to win a Gold Cup. He should be an exciting prospect to look forward to next season when he takes on the Mullins battalions.

Carlito Brigante was a late withdrawal from the National due to lameness, unfortunately just too late for a reserve to take his place. 9am was the official deadline and you have to wonder whether this could be extended next year.

The bookmakers are rolling out the Grand National offers but here is our ante-post book and the current best prices available.

Shutthefrontdoor 20-1 Best price now 8-1 Ladbrokes

Monbeg Dude 33-1 Best price now 50-1 Bet365

Spring Heeled 33-1 Best price now 25-1 William Hill

Cause Of Causes 33-1 Best price now 20-1 William Hill

Aintree Friday Preview

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Day 1 of the Grand National provided its usual share of thrills and spills, unfortunately including our selection Arctic Fire crashing out at the last in the Aintree Hurdle. On The Fringe spared us from a complete whitewash but it would have been so much better had Call The Cops held on in the last.

Friday’s card, dare I say it, looks even tougher at first glance. The first race is a wide open two and a half mile handicap. I was taken by the style of Theinval when he won at Kempton on similar ground and he just about gets the vote at a tempting 11-1. Pearl Swan and Snake Eyes are others to note but you could probably make a case for half of the field.

I’ll probably bring the Nicky Henderson stable to a grinding halt but I fancy Cardinal Walter to run well in the second as well. I was surprised when he was beaten by Qewy at Newbury but this quicker surface could see the form turned on its head.

If there is a “good thing” on Friday, it is probably Saphir Du Rheu. He was runner-up in the World Hurdle and now has a second tilt at a chasing career having fluffed his lines at Kempton last time. He is the class horse of the race but you wouldn’t want to take too short a price.

The Melling Chase is a real cracker with Sire De Grugy, Don Cossack and Champagne Fever heading the field. Champagne Fever was bitten by a stable companion on his journey over for the festival so missed the Queen Mother Champion Chase. I believe that two and a half miles is probably more his trip anyway.

The Topham Chase looks almost impossible to solve but I’m going to take a stab with Bless The Wings for Gordon Elliott. The stable had a first day double and this one is very well weighted with Darna on previous form. Likewise, Mouse Morris has his table firing on all cylinders so Alpha Des Obeaux looks overpriced in the 4.40. He was second to Doucan last time out, admittedly without getting the Supreme Hurdle winner off the bridle, but this looks wide open.

Finally, Paul Nicholls can continue a fine meeting for the stable with Persian Delight in the closing bumper. He cruised home in a poor race on his debut but is highly regarded at home.

Theinval 1.40 @11-1 Bet365

Cardinal Walter 2.15 @8-1 Paddy Power

Saphir Du Rheu 2.50 @7-4 Totesport

Champagne Fever 3.25 @10-3 Coral

Bless The Wings 4.05 @22-1 Ladbrokes

Alpha Des Obeaux 4.40 @18-1 Bet365

Persian Delight 5.15 @4-1 Paddy Power

Grand National Blog – Déjà vu for Punters at Aintree

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Aintree Day 1 Report

The last flight fall of Arctic Fire in the Aintree Hurdle was strangely reminiscent of last month’s demise of odds-on favourite Annie Power at Cheltenham. Once again it was the Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh combination seemingly set to strike a blow for the punters before disaster struck at the last hurdle.

His departure left the race at the mercy of Jezki and Tony McCoy but the best news was that both horse and rider escaped unscathed. McCoy would later be in the wars himself when Ned Buntline came down in the sixth race. The champion jockey was immediately back up on his feet and able to fling his helmet to the ground in disgust.

It was a day of mixed fortunes for punters with Nina Carberry never giving her supporters an anxious moment when taking the Fox Hunter Chase with On The Fringe. Silviniaco Conti was preferred in the market to Holywell and duly reversed the Cheltenham Gold Cup under Noel Fehily. Punters could have ended the day in profit had Call The Cops held off the late thrust of Taglietelle in the closing handicap hurdle. Bookmakers had little to complain about in the other races with Clarcam (5-1), All Yours (16-1) and Surf And Turf (33-1).

Grand National Latest

There has been little activity worthy of note in the Grand National market with Shutthefrontdoor a general 7-1 favourite ahead of Rocky Creek and Balthazar King at 10-1 and The Druids Nephew at 14-1. Gordon Elliott will certainly be growing in confidence ahead of Cause Of Causes run in Saturday’s race after a first day double courtesy of Clarcam and Taglietelle.

A few late jockey bookings for the National include Brian Hughes on Ely Brown, Brendan Powell on Royale Knight, Tom Cannon on Wyck Hill and Liam Treadwell on Monbeg Dude. The four reserves have only until 9am tomorrow for any of the top forty to come out.

Special Offers

The best Grand National offers at present are each-way down to sixth place from BetVictor and half of your stake back as a free bet for Bet365 customers (applies to all each-way bets on the National up to a maximum of £125 per customer). If you are intending opening a Coral account, they will pay out on the Grand National winner at treble the odds for new customers. Full details on their respective websites.

Grand National Blog – Going favours Spring Heeled

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The Grand National meeting at Aintree gets under way on Thursday and the excitement is already building towards Saturday’s big race.

If you have been following our regular posts, you’ll know that we have been putting together an ante-post portfolio on the race. The ground seems to be drying out with the warm spell over Easter and that is good news for Spring Heeled, tipped here at 33-1 on 4th February. All has gone well with his preparation and Nick Scholfield takes the ride.

Cause Of Causes chased him home at Cheltenham last year and was added to our list at 33-1 after winning at this year’s festival. He has almost halved in price and Paul Carberry is expected to hunt him around on the first circuit and hope to creep into the race. If you are a fan of Tony McCoy, we added Shutthefrontdoor at 20-1 in anticipation of the champion jockey seeking a glorious send-off.

Our only other investment so far was on Monbeg Dude at 33-1 and we were disappointed with him in his latest trial. He would probably prefer softer ground but got round last year in seventh and connections are still to take their chance.

All of the leading bookmakers are now offering non-runner – no bet on the Grand National. There are also some enhanced place terms on offer with BetVictor paying each-way down to sixth place. William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral and Totesport are sticking rigidly to the first four places so far but this may change with pressure form their rivals.

Royale Knight is currently the last horse guaranteed a run so anything below him in the list is relying on some late withdrawals. These include the David Pipe duo of The Package and Broadway Buffalo. The former is a veteran of past Nationals and won well at Cheltenham while Katie Walsh is desperately hoping that Broadway Buffalo can sneak in. She won the Irish Grand National on Monday but looks like missing out on Saturday’s race.

Whereas Cheltenham brings the best from Ireland and Britain together for the first time, Aintree tends to revolve around the festival form. There are smaller fields and (usually) Cheltenham form stands up pretty well. We have previewed day 1 separately with selections for all seven races.

Ante-post

Spring Heeled @33-1

Cause Of Causes @33-1

Monbeg Dude @33-1

Shutthefrontdoor @20-1

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Aintree Thursday Preview

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The Betfred Bowl is one of four Grade 1 races in the opening day of the Grand National meeting at Aintree.

Tony McCoy is re-united with Jonjo O’Neill’s Holywell after being claimed to ride Carlingford Lough in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Holywell briefly looked threatening four from home but could only plug on at one pace into fourth behind Coneygree. That was still a fine effort, particularly as the rain-softened ground went against him.

He is a real spring horse with all of his seven career victories having come between January and April. He had won at the previous two Cheltenham festivals and also won here last year when slamming Don Cossack by ten lengths in the Mildmay Novices’ Chase. The obvious danger is Silviniaco Conti who was a disappointing favourite in the Gold Cup. He bounced back to win this race last year and I expect to see Noel Fehily adopt more positive tactics than at Cheltenham.

Cheltenham form is also tested in the Aintree Hurdle at 3.25 when Arctic Fire lines up against Jezki. We tipped Arctic Fire at 25-1 for the Champion Hurdle so were delighted with his run in second place behind Faugheen. He holds Jezki on that form and McCoy’s mount is prone to pull too hard for his own good. The only question mark is whether Arctic Fire stays this longer trip but his style of racing suggests that he will.

McCoy should have register a victory in the McManus colours on Hargam in the Juvenile Hurdle. He was third in the Henderson-dominated Triumph Hurdle and was ten lengths clear of Devilment in fourth place. The green and gold colours have several chances on the card, notably with On The Fringe and Ned Buntline.

On The Fringe was always travelling best in the Foxhunters at Cheltenham and Nina Carberry has a great chance of landing the double here. He has yet to tackle these fences and a huge field of thirty is always a worry. If he settles over the first few fences, he is capable of following up. Ned Buntline gets a handy pull in the weights with Next Sensation for Cheltenham. He was fancied to give Tony McCoy a winning send-off but the ground was too soft for him.

Call The Cops is up 7lbs for his Pertemps Final victory but that may not be enough to prevent him from following up in the last. Vibrato Valtat tried to go after Un De Sceaux in the Arkle and had nothing left in the closing stages. He will be ridden with more restraint in the opener where he clashes with Josses Hill.

Vibrato Valtat 1.40 @9-4 Ladbrokes

Hargam 2.15 @Evens Bet365

Holywell 2.50 @15-8 Skybet

Arctic Fire 3.25 @2-1 Bet365

On The Fringe 4.05 @4-1 Bet365

Ned Buntline 4.40 @8-1 Ladbrokes

Call The Cops 5.15 @7-1 Ladbrokes