Category: Horse Racing

Kempton Park Saturday Preview

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After the excitement of the All-Weather Championships at Lingfield, the flat racing action moves to Kempton on Saturday.

There are some decent handicappers in action in the 2.15 with the weights headed by Outback Traveller. Jeremy Noseda’s four-year-old has gone up 12lbs since beating a decent field by seven lengths at Ascot last autumn. That was by far his best run of the season and it will be interesting to see how he fares off this new mark.

Ninjago was runner-up in the Stewards’ Cup at Goodwood last season but disappointed in Dubai this winter. He wore blinkers for the first time when winning over course and distance last time but the one I like here is Speculative Bid, trained by David Elsworth.

He has gone up 8lbs for a very impressive course and distance victory under Jamie Spencer. He missed the break but threaded his way through the field on the bridle and was only pushed out to score easily.

Queen Catrine was very frustrating last season after her brilliant run at Royal Ascot in June. She came from last place to force a photograph in the Sandringham Handicap but the verdict went to Muteela. She did not reproduce that form in three subsequent outings and is yet to add to her maiden victory at Ayr in 2013.

Wee Jean was just behind her that day and ran well again at Sandown next time before losing her form. Victoria Regina has run a couple of nice races in Dubai but I prefer to side with Lady Dutch, a comfortable winner here last time. Marco Botti does well with his imports and she looks capable of following up.

Frankie Dettori and John Gosden team up in the 3.25 with the lightly-raced Made With Love. He nearly made all on his debut last season at Newmarket and was surprisingly beaten at odds-on next time. Gosden gave the colt a lengthy break and he duly obliged in a moderate maiden over course and distance.

The Newmarket trainer does not tend to keep that many older horses in training unless they are likely to be top class handicappers or better. All of his rivals on Saturday are thoroughly exposed and it will be disappointing if he cannot kick off the new campaign with a win off a mark of 90.

Speculative Bid 2.15 @4-1 Ladbrokes

Lady Dutch 2.50 @7-2 BetVictor

Made With Love 3.25 @2-1 William Hill

Ervedya 16-1 for 1000 Guineas after Imprudence win

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The 1000 Guineas may seem a long way off with the build-up currently in full swing for next week’s Grand National, but the first meaningful trial of the season has already taken place.

His Highness The Aga Khan won the Prix Imprudence at Maisons-Laffite on Thursday with Ervedya, a daughter of Siyouni out of a King’s Best mare. The race was over seven furlongs in heavy ground and Christophe Soumillon bided his time before cutting through the field to win impressively.

It is worth remembering that subsequent Guineas winner Miss France was only sixth in this race last year. Ervedya has top class form from last year and was boosting the credentials of favourite Found, her conqueror in the Prix Marcel Boussac.

Ervedya was badly drawn that day so had to be brought across from stall 12 and make the running. She travelled well in the lead until Found was driven up alongside and quickened away to win by two and a half lengths. Queen Bee was fifth that day and filled third spot at Maisons-Laffitte so the form is looking solid.

William Hill offer the best price of 16-1 about Ervedya for Newmarket and that would be great value on soft ground. She has won on good ground but her trainer may consider the French Guineas a better option.

Andre Fabre has confirmed that High Celebrity will run at Newmarket and will not be having a prep race. The daughter of Invincible Spirit was not risked in the testing conditions this week and will hope to make it third-time-lucky in Suffolk next month. She was beaten at odds-on in the Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes in July and finished third to Tiggy Wiggy in the Cheveley Park Stakes last time.

Found reportedly had a temperature last month but is back on course for the Guineas where she is likely to be joined by Together Forever, winner of the Dubai Fillies’ Mile in October. She was runner-up to Found at the Curragh in August but improved throughout the season, winning her last three starts. The going was soft when she beat Agnes Stewart by half a length over a mile with Winters Moon just a nose away in third.

Aidan O’Brien has declared himself to be delighted with Together Forever who is currently a top price of 14-1 with Boylesports. Richard Hannon’s Tiggy Wiggy is freely available at 20-1 with question marks about her stamina while Lucida and Fadhayyil are also prominent in the ante-post market. The latter is going straight to Newmarket for veteran trainer Barry Hills following her second place in the Rockfel Stakes.

Musselburgh Friday Preview

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The main horse racing action in the UK on Friday is the All-Weather Championship meeting at Lingfield which we have reviewed separately. There is also a good quality turf meeting at Musselburgh, only the second after Doncaster’s two-day Lincoln meeting last weekend.

The card includes the veteran sprinter Borderlescott attempting to win the race named after him at 3.30. Rebecca Bastiman’s tough gelding is now thirteen years of age but still showing plenty of dash. He was only beaten a nose in this race last year by Smoothtalkinrascal but the rain-softened ground is likely to count against him on Friday.

He is joined in the field by another former Goodwood Stewards’ Cup winner in Hawkeyethenoo but he probably needs further than this five furlongs these days. The race should be fought out between Blaine and Robot Boy who are closely matched on last season’s form. Kevin Ryan had Astaire in pretty good shape for the Cammidge Trophy last week so I’m guessing that Blaine won’t be far off his best here.

By far the most competitive race on the card is the Royal Mile at 2.55. This race has attracted some really promising three-year-olds and it will be fascinating to see how it unfolds. It usually pays to keep an eye on these good quality handicaps at this time of year and I would be very surprised if there aren’t half a dozen future winners in the race.

Mister Universe and Tom Hark were both involved in races featuring subsequent Dewhurst Stakes winner Elm Park last season. The latter actually had Andrew Balding’s colt behind him at Sandown, although that was obviously flattering. He won his maiden in good style and has to be respected. Richard Fahey has his team in great form for the start of the season and both of his runners look useful. Arcano Gold and Spring Offensive both look capable of winning nice races this summer.

Fahey was particularly enthusiastic about York runner-up Spring Offensive and he is just preferred. You can never discard William Haggas runners in handicaps so it would be no surprise if Tadqeeq improves considerably on his all-weather form while Berland is another to note for the future.

Gordon Elliott will have one eye on the Grand National and Cause Of Causes at present but he sends over Bayan for the Balmoral Cup. This horse won the valuable Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot over hurdles but is pretty useful on the flat as well and the booking of Paul Hanagan looks significant,

Bayan 2.25 @5-1 Betfair

Spring Offensive 2.55 @6-1 Betfair

Blaine 3.30 @2-1 Ladbrokes

Grand National 2015 – Aintree News Update

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The Aintree Grand National is less than two weeks away now and the bookmakers are bracing themselves for a massive gamble on Tony McCoy’s expected mount, Shutthefrontdoor. We forecast this over a month ago and recommended taking the 20-1 about last year’s Irish National winner. He is now as short as 6-1 in places, generally 7-1.

Trainer Jonjo O’Neill has been sending out mixed signals, understandably starting to feel the pressure of supplying McCoy’s final ride in the race. There have been heavy hints that the champion jockey will call time immediately on his riding career if he passes the post in front on April 11th.

All three of our other recommended each-way bets remain in contention. Spring Heeled and Cause Of Causes are both now 20-1 from 33-1 while Monbeg Dude remains 33-1 after a poor prep run. Soft ground may improve the chances of Monbeg Dude, otherwise we may see him drift further in the betting.

Rocky Creek spearheads the Paul Nicholls runners and he could be joined by Unioniste, Rebel Rebellion and Mon Parrain. Last year’s runner-up Balthazar King is certain to be popular having by-passed Cheltenham this year in an attempt to go one better.

Aidan Coleman has been booked to ride the well-fancied The Druids Nephew after both Barry Geraghty and Davy Russell were ruled out through injury. It would be poetic justice for Coleman were he to pick up a spare ride and win the race, having chosen the wrong horse when Mon Mome won at 100-1 in 2009 under Liam Treadwell.

Alvarado will be bidding to continue the extraordinary run of the Rucker family who have been placed in the last six Grand Nationals, all ridden by Paul Moloney. He has had only one race since finishing fourth last year and is currently a top price of 25-1 with Coral.

I am surprised that both Lord Windermere and Many Clouds are heading to Aintree after running poorly in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Leighton Aspell has been claimed to ride Many Clouds for Oliver Sherwood, leaving Daryl Jacob to take the ride on last year’s winner Pineau De Re. Lord Windermere ran a lifeless race at the festival and is burdened with top weight here with Robbie McNamara taking the ride.

Nina Carberry will ride First Lieutenant for Mouse Morris in a bid to become the first lady jockey to win the race. Katie Walsh has come closest so far, finishing third on Seabass in 2012.

Several firms are already offering five places in the National for each-way betting. They are: Bet365, Skybet, Boylesports, BetVictor, Paddy Power, 888Sport, Betfair and 32Red.

Irish Grand National Preview

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Forty-five horses remain in contention for the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse on Easter Monday. They include ante-post favourite Gallant Oscar, although connections are still hoping that the nine-year-old sneaks into the Aintree line-up.

Tony Martin’s gelding is currently down at number 57 in the entries so needs another 17 to drop out. He is favourite on the basis of a fine staying-on third behind The Druids Nephew at the Cheltenham festival last month. The winner is now a leading fancy for Aintree so Gallant Oscar will have plenty of supporters if he runs in Ireland.

He had previously finished fourth in the Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park behind Gold Cup runner-up Djakadam and is only slightly higher in the handicap. The going is expected to be soft and those conditions suit him perfectly. If you’re backing him, make sure that your bookmaker is offering Non-runner – no bet terms.

Grand Jesture, just ahead of Gallant Oscar at Cheltenham, is also a leading fancy for Henry De Bromhead. He finished down the field in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown in December but put in a fine display of jumping at the festival. He has finished fourth, second and first here on his previous visits and could still be improving at the age of seven.

Embracing Change has won his last four races including the Grand National Trial at Punchestown. He was eased in the closing stages when accounting for Portrait King by a length and a half but the handicapper has put him up 13lbs.

Los Amigos beat Grand Jesture here in 2013 and is better off at the weights on Monday. This looks to have been the target all season for the son of Overbury who beat Lion Na Bearnai here in January. He was trying to give Gallant Oscar 11lbs when beaten three and a quarter lengths at Naas in the Leinster National last March. An 8lbs pull should bring them closer together.

Tony McCoy will be riding in Ireland for the last time and could partner the novice If In Doubt. McCoy had to be at his best to steer this one home in the Great Yorkshire Chase and he ran respectably in the RSA Chase behind Don Poli. He still does not look the most natural of jumpers and that cannot be a good thing in such a large field.

There has been plenty of ante-post support for Vics Canvas despite his advancing years. The 12-year-old son of Old Vic was a fine third to Living Next Door in the Paddy Power Chase in December but he has been well beaten on both previous visits to Fairyhouse. Wounded Warrior looks set to carry top weight after finishing third to Don Poli at Cheltenham but this looks a difficult task for a six-year-old.

Gallant Oscar @10-1 Boylesports* Non-runner – No bet

Grand Jesture @14-1 Bet365

Los Amigos @16-1 Bet365

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Lingfield All-Weather Championships Preview

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Lingfield stages the All-Weather Championship meeting on Friday with seven good quality races highlighted by the Coral Easter Classic.

It may not be Dubai World Cup night but the blue of Godolphin are very much in evidence once again and Tryster is likely to go off odds-on favourite. The four-year-old is on a winning streak of four after cutting down Grendisar to win the Winter Derby last time out.

I had tipped Grendisar each-way that day after a string of fine efforts but was hoping that Martin Harley would be able to hold him up a little longer. The horse only has one short burst of acceleration and practically pulls himself up in front so I knew what to expect when he led at the furlong pole. In fairness to Harley, it was a very slow early pace and he was probably frightened to get blocked off in his run.

Grendisar has now been in the first two in all of his last ten races and is again available at an each-way price. I’d rather take my chances on him that support Tryster at odds-on.

The All-Weather Mile has attracted a very competitive field including Mindurownbusiness and Sovereign Debt. We tipped both of them when successful at the last big meeting here so we are left with a tricky decision. Both Roger Varian and David Nicholls decided to bypass the Lincoln to wait for this and it is Sovereign Debt who is top on official figures. He is best held up so Joe Fanning will have to weave his way through a big field here.

There seems to be plenty of confidence behind Lexington Times in the three-year-old mile championship. He still holds a 2000 Guineas entry but has a tough rival in John Gosden’s Tempus Temporis. Blinkers seem to have been the making of the son of Dynaformer and he has run away with his last two races impressively.

James Tate has his stable in good form and I like the chances of Lamar in the Fillies’ And Mares’ at 1.40. She was just denied by Grendisar last time out and has most to fear from French raider Fresles. She was a close second to Intransigent here over six furlongs in November so will be familiar with the surface.

Lingfield Friday

Lamar 1.40 @7-1 Coral

Tempus Temporis 2.40 @3-1 Ladbrokes

Sovereign Debt 3.15 @7-2 Bet365

Grendisar 3.45 @6-1 Betfair (each-way)