Category: Horse Racing

Grand National – 74 remain after latest declaration stage

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There are 74 horses remaining in the £1million Aintree Grand National on April 11th after thirteen were taken out on Tuesday.

As expected, Carlingford Lough was withdrawn after a disappointing run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Also out are: Rolling Aces, Alderwood, Boston Bob, Shotgun Paddy, Theatrical Star, Roi Du Mee, Katenko, Living Next Door, Make A Track, Prince De Beauchene, Cedre Bleu and Buddy Bolero.

The good news for followers of our ante-post advice is that Monbeg Dude has been given the all-clear despite a poor run at Cheltenham. Connections could find nothing wrong with the horse physically and have decided that he resented the tongue-strap which will not be used at Aintree.

Our other selections also remain in contention with Shutthefrontdoor, Spring Heeled and Cause Of Causes all prominent in the betting. We highlighted the chance of Shutthefrontdoor prior to Cheltenham and his price has collapsed from 20-1 to 8-1. Champion jockey Tony McCoy will almost certainly be on board the favourite and has said that victory in the race may well be the perfect time to retire.

Spring Heeled (tipped at 33-1) is now a top priced 20-1 for Jim Culloty who still has top weight Lord Windermere entered in the race. Jockey Davy Russell has joined Barry Geraghty on the side lines through injury while Bryan Cooper is suspended. Russell revealed earlier this week that Culloty had removed him from the ride on Lord Windermere after his poor run in the Gold Cup. He became detached soon after the start and was eventually pulled up. The ground had gone against him on the day but Culloty clearly was not satisfied with Russell’s performance.

Paul Nicholls intends to run all six of his remaining entries headed by Rocky Creek and Unioniste. Rocky Creek looks the obvious pick after finishing fifth last year and putting up a lifetime best to win at Kempton last time out. Unioniste could yet emerge as one of the gambles of the race if the going becomes soft.

Last week we added Cause Of Causes to our portfolio at 33-1 and he is now a top price 20-1. He also races in the JP McManus colours carried by Shutthefrontdoor.

If you have not yet had a bet on the race, look out for non-runner – no bet terms. Bet365, Totesport, Betfred, Stan James and Betfair are already offering this provision.

Lincoln Handicap – Ante-post Update

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In last week’s Lincoln preview we recommended Zarwaan at 12-1 and he is now a top-priced 10-1 with Bet Victor.

Mange All and Gm Hopkins continue to dominate the market for William Haggas and John Gosden. Both stables have a fine record in the race so they should certainly give their supporters a run for their money. I don’t think that there can be much value left at odds of 11-2 and 7-1 respectively so I’ve been looking further down the weights in the hope of unearthing an each-way alternative.

With recent winners returned at 16-1, 25-1, 20-1 and 20-1, we know from experience that the market can get this race badly wrong. The draw is another factor to take into account, although that too is something of a mystery. Most pundits had satisfied themselves that a middle to high draw is ideal. Lo and behold, the winner Ocean Tempest emerged from stall 3 last season.

One horse that does catch my eye is Peter Chapple-Hyam’s Buckstay. I tipped him for last season’s Cambridgeshire and he ran a fine race to be fourth behind Bronze Angel. He is now a staggering 16lbs better off with the winner.

Maxime Guyon rode him that day and hit the front over a furlong from home before being swamped in the closing stages. He again clashed with Bronze Angel at Ascot in heavy ground in the Balmoral Handicap but the draw gave him no chance that day. He finished third on his side but was only ninth overall and that run can be safely ignored.

Buckstay has some form with cut in the ground but does not look as though he appreciates extremes of going. Cam Hardie has been booked for the ride and he takes off a handy 3lbs. With a massive 93 horses left in, Buckstay may not get a run from 33 in the handicap but we can take a bit of the 25-1 and get a refund if he is balloted out.

It looks as though Bronze Angel will carry top weight for Marcus Tregoning with Ocean Tempest just below him, attempting to repeat last year’s triumph. The three market leaders are safely in the top of the handicap and Richard Fahey hopes to run three including both Gabrial’s Kaka and Gabrial. It’s anybody’s guess how Gabrial will cope with this large field but Gabrial’s Kaka should go well. Fahey is optimistic about his chances and 14-1 represents fair value.

Zarwaan @12-1*

Buckstay @25-1 BetVictor (non-runner – no bet)

Gabrial’s Kaka @14-1 William Hill

*Ante-post

Dubai World Cup Preview

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It’s Dubai World Cup weekend and the surface has been receiving as much attention as the leading contenders in the big race build-up.

After five years racing on a Tapeta surface, the decision was taken to switch back to a dirt track to attract the top American horses to Meydan. There was not a single American-trained runner in last year’s renewal but the move appears to have paid off with California Chrome set to start favourite.

Sheikh Hamdan has questioned the logic behind making the horse favourite, as no American horse has raced on the new surface as yet. Even though California Chrome has won on a range of dirt surfaces, the Sheikh feels that the surface at Meydan will be a new experience for last year’s Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner.

That has not deterred punters who see only one result on Saturday with Art Sherman’s four-year-old as short as 5-4 having been 4-1 just a couple of weeks ago. The chestnut ought to be in great shape for this after chasing home the smart Shared Belief in the San Antonio Invitational last month. Although his Triple Crown hopes ended in the Belmont, he did run a fine race when third to Bayern and Toast Of New York in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

It’s a shame that the runner-up could not be here to add to the quality of the race but Lea could make a race of it. William Mott trains the six-year-old son of First Samurai who was second in a Grade 1 at Gulfstream Park last month. He was attempting to win the race for a second consecutive year but could not get past Constitution.

Last year’s World Cup winner African Story bounced back to form when winning the Al Maktoum Challenge by a neck from Prince Bishop earlier this month. Last season he comfortably beat Mukhadram by two and three-quarter lengths and would have a chance if back in that kind of form. Prince Bishop renews rivalry but both Godolphin horses are now eight years of age.

There has been support for Japanese raider Epiphaneia, a close fifth to Gentildonna at Nakayama in December. He was going like a winner at the two furlong marker in that mile and a half contest so this drop in trip should improve his chances. He had previously won the Japan Cup impressively by four lengths from Just A Way.

Side Glance seems to have been around forever but Andrew Balding’s gelding is still only eight. He ran some fine races in Australia including finishing only half a length away in fourth in the Cox Plate. He has not got his head in front since winning the Mackinnon Stakes at Flemington in 2013.

With the value all taken about the favourite, it may be worth going each-way on Epiphaneia to land the prize for Japan and Christophe Soumillon.

Epiphaneia @8-1 BetVictor

Each-way 1/5 odds, 1,2,3

Sha Tin Saturday 21st March tips!

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Bet on Sha Tin races with Bet365!

HONG KONG RACING SATURDAY MARCH 21 

SHA TIN

Hong Kong Wrap Up

Fantastic racing last Sunday with 4 on top selections getting up and seven out of the 10 races producing exactas on the selections when boxed. Amazing win by Able Friend in the Cup race. Don’t know if he will get a chance at the world stage but if he does watch out as he is certainly something special. The owners love him heaps and it may take a bit of persuading to get him to part from Hong Kong and how can you be more impressed by the win by Luger in the Derby. He was our on top selection and left nothing else a chance over the concluding stages. More to our home stats and our best value selection of the day is running along at just over a 65% e/w strike rate and returning a profit or just over the 60% mark. Stick with them as well as the boxed exacta’s and not only will you have heaps of fun you will do extremely well over the course of the season.

 

Track and Conditions: Turf C+3 Course. All on the turf with the exception of races and 4 which will be on the All Weather Dirt Track. Track currently rated as Good on both surfaces.

 

Expected Weather: Cloudy but there will be sunny intervals. Visibility will be relatively low but should not impact on the running of the races. A top temperature of 23 degrees and wind will be from the east to northeast up to and around the 30Kh/m. 

 

Best Bet: Race 10 No 1 Packing Pins 

Best Value: Race 2 No 1 Art of Success

Best Exotic Races: Race No 7-8-9-10

Quaddie:- 

Race 7: 9-11-8-5 Race 8: 11-2-9 Race 9: 1-9-11-4-12 Race 10: 5

 

Race 1: — Time: 5.00am GMT—Distance: 1800m—Class 5

Top Pick: No 6 Bachelor Dragon

Value Selection: 8 My Cup Overflows

Exotic Inclusions: No 1 Gold Tartini and No 14 All My Benefit

 

Race Overview

Very ordinary field to kick of the card today so would not be getting too involved here however Joao has had the pick of the rides once again and when you look at the form well I suppose Dragon Bachelor after dropping back in class recently has to be a reasonable chance here. Hard to go past in this field even though he has not won this season. Does look weighted at his best but should run well just the same in this field. My Cup Overflows Should get a nice on paced run after coming up with the inside draw here. Has fairly good early gate speed which should allow him to sit in a forward position here. This may very well develop into a sit and sprint race which will certainly assist on paced runners.

 

Race 2: — Time: 5.30am GMT—Distance: 1200m—Class 4

Top Pick: No 6 E-Super

Value Selection: No 1 Art of Success

Exotic Inclusions: No 10 Gallant Rock and No 2 Sunshine Glory

 

Race Overview

E-Super has been in Hong Kong for a while now and missed a bit of track work with a leg injury but has trialled well since then. This three year old may very well have some promise going on those trials and it would not surprise to see him go very close here. Art of Success Recently dropped back to class four and went well on the first occasion but was bumped from pillar to post last start and as a result was eased out of it. Comes up with a very nice draw in gate 13 which is right on the rails down this 1000m straight today. Should jump well and with Zac Purton in the saddle is certainly expected to put in a good performance here.

 

Race 3: — Time: 6.00am GMT—Distance: 1400m—Class 4

Top Pick: No 8 Goldweaver

Value Selection: No 10 Jun Hao

Exotic Inclusions: No 5 Fantasticife and No 4 Rising Power / No 2 Optimational Star

 

Race Overview

Goldweaver is another Zac Purton mount and even though this does look like a very ordinary class five I do expect he will run well on recent form. Always seams to be in the firing line and should get a nice trail from gate 4 today. Still looks well weighted at 125Lbs and certainly has to be a bit of a chance here. Jun Hao has never been too far away in most of his runs since coming to Hong Kong and looking at his last three starts he has to be an inclusion here at each way odds. Very open here with the exotic inclusions all having a chance as well.

 

Race 4: — Time: 6.30am GMT—Distance: 1600m—Class 4

Top Pick: No 10 Modern Fortune

Value Selection: No 2 Easy Success

Exotic Inclusions: No 7 Glorious Avenue and No 3 Hurry Hurry Up / No 8 Jade Pippo.

Race Overview

Modern Fortune ran a pretty good race last start with the same weight he has today and comes up with the rails draw once again. He looks a solid chance here but he may be a bit unders with Joao Moreira in the saddle. Easy Success just gets in ok at barrier 7 and has been fairly consistent recently at this class and does look to be a nice chance once again today. Weighted at his best but he does have Brett Prebble in the saddle who is the master of the weave so he should be able to be well placed in the running. Appeals as a bit of a chance here at nice each way odds.

 

Race 5: — Time: 7.00am GMT—Distance: 1800m—Class 3

Top Pick: No 8 Ah Bo 

Value Selection: No 11 Kids and Win

Exotic Inclusions: No 3 Heroic Guru and No 13 Victoria Charter

 

Race Overview

Ah Bo has never been very far away and gets a chance to break his Hong Kong duck here. Drew a bit wide last start but still closed off well. Draws in a bit closer today and carries the same weight. Retains Joao Moreira in the saddle who has had a couple of rides on him now and been close. Should get a nice trail in the running as well. Kids and Win has been at this class previously and dropped back to class five and picked up a couple of very nice wins. Still gets into this well weighted and has to be a bit of a chance here as he will trot around with 118Lbs on his back and retains the same hoop. But it is an open class four just the same.

 

Race 6: — Time: 7.00am GMT—Distance: 1200m—Class 3

Top Pick: No 2 Country Melody

Value Selection: No 1 Dane Patrol

Exotic Inclusions: No 5 Beauty Kingdom and No 10 No Money No Talk

 

Race Overview

Just have to love these 1000m sprints at Sha Tin. Country Melody has only had the four starts in Hong Kong and won his first two. Went up in the weights as a result of that but has still been very consistent just the same and does appeal as another very good chance today. Drawn a bit better than mid field which is not too bad and of course he has Joao Moreira in the saddle. Dane Patrol is an eight year old now but is still sprinting in great fashion. Went very close last start with Jack Wong in the saddle last start and get’s another 10 Lb’s off today with Jack retaining the ride. That will certainly help as he is up in the weights after that last start performance. But when you look at his overall form this season he has been very consistent and has raced very well over the odds on most occasions. Certainly appeals as good value here at current odds of around the 6/1 mark.

Race 7: — Time: 8.00am GMT—Distance: 1400m—Class – Group One

Top Pick: No 9 Multimax

Value Selection: No 11 Thor The Greatest

Exotic Inclusions: No 8 Kynam and No 5 Billante

 

Race Overview

Multimax is a very improving three year old and has adjusted to the class rise last start. Ran a very nice 4th on that occasion all be it with a very light weight. Has the ability to go close today with a senior hoop in Douglas Whyte in the saddle. Come up with another good draw in gate four and should enjoy a very nice trip from that draw. Thor The Greatest well it does look like they have picked the right time for him to go up in class. Not only does he drop 9 Lbs due to the class rise he also gets a further 10 Lbs off with Jack Wong in the saddle. Will be very close to the pace with that weight and can certainly run a very cheeky race here.

 

Race 8: — Time: 8.35am GMT—Distance: 1400m—Class 3

Top Pick: No 11 So Caffe

Value Selection: No 2 Red Dancer

Exotic Inclusions: No 9 Supreme Profit and No 8 Colossus

 

Race Overview

So Caffe has always shown promise but has not broken through this season. Gets his chance today against this lot and comes up with another nice draw today in gate 3 which was what he had last start and closed off very well and was not far off the winner on that occasion. Has not got great early gate speed but will be getting home hard late and he has Joao Moreira in the saddle as well today.  Red Dancer is a good performer over this distance at this class having won twice this season over the Sha Tin mile. Was working home well again last start from a wide gate. Gets in closer today and retains his last start hoop. Can certainly get in the finish here once again today at nice each way odds.

 

Race 9: — Time: 9.10am GMT—Distance: 2000m—Class – HKG1

Top Pick: No 1 Key Witness

Value Selection: No 9 Lang Tai Sing

Exotic Inclusions: No 4 Teofilo Calvo and No 11 Supreme Falcon / No 12 Lovely Delovely

 

Race Overview

Key Witness is a very good on paced runner but will most likely be taken back today from the wide gate due to the early inside pace in this race. Four year old who is really showing his form with a very nice win at Class one last start. Back to class two today and carries a similar weight to what he won at class two two starts back. Douglas Whyte has been on him on most occasions and sticks with him today. Lang Tai Sing is a nice type and has never been far away and is mostly at nice odds as well. Closed off extremely well from a wide gate last start and was less than 2 lengths away on the post. Different set up today after coming up with the rails draw and should get a very nice trail in the running from that position. Certainly has appeal at each way odds here.

 

 

Race 10: — Time: 9.50pm GMT—Distance: 1400m—Class 2

Top Pick: No: 5 Packing Pins

Value Selection: No 12 presidentparamount

Exotic Inclusions: No 13 Mah May Baby and No 4 Secret Weapon / No 1 Big Four

 

                                                         Race Overview          

 

Packing Pins does possess good gate speed and should be eased into a nice slot in the running from gate two. You can forget he went around last start as shortly after the jump he was caught wide and was unable to settle infield and as a result was forced to race four wide for almost the entire trip and yielded ground in the straight. Form prior to that was extremely good and certainly looks up to this with a similar weight today and Joao Moreira in the saddle. Certainly a bit of a puzzle after you take out the on top selection here but we may find a bit of value just the same. Presidentparamount goes up in class after two very good performances at class four. He has drawn wide in gate 12 but does look very well suited at this distance and may very well get a bit more but for today he certainly looks very nice odds and would not have to improve too much to get into the finish here. Open race to finish off the card today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

£750,000 on offer in Scoop6!

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Last weekend’s Scoop6 was lost when Catching On and Tony McCoy crashed out of the Midlands National at Uttoxeter. The well-backed gelding was carrying the last remaining ticket so the pool has been carried over with a forecast £750,000 up for grabs.

All of this weekend’s Scoop6 are televised by Channel 4 so we’ve had a quick comb through the form in the hope of coming up with a winning permutation.

2.00 Newbury

As you would expect, there are no easy races and the opening Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase sets the ball rolling. Pepite Rose won this race last year and is now on a 1lb lower mark. O’Maonlai absolutely bolted up here last month but has been raised 15lbs.

PEPITE ROSE, O’MAONLAI

2.15 Kelso

This is a decent race with Harry The Viking having much the best form after being beaten on the nod in the Grand National Trial at Haydock. That was on testing ground, formerly believed to be against the gelding. Cloudy Too has a touch of class but has been weighted accordingly and a bigger danger may be unlucky faller The Last Samuri.

HARRY THE VIKING, THE LAST SAMURI

2.35 Newbury

The EBF Mares’ Hurdle Finale looks wide open but Nicky Henderson’s Spartan Angel should go well along with the Warren Greatex-trained Hannah’s Princess showed a liking for this ground last time.

SPARTAN ANGEL, HANNAH’S PRINCESS

2.50 Kelso

Spookydooky won with a bit in hand last time but has gone up 13lbs. Nicky Richards has his team in good form and Cultram Abbey could be worth considering.

SPOOKYDOOKY, CULTRAM ABBEY

3.10 Newbury

The form choice here is Financial Climate with the added bonus of AP McCoy in the saddle. He is only up 4lbs for a workmanlike success at Sandown but may have most to fear from No Duffer.

FINANCIAL CLIMATE, NO DUFFER

3.45 Newbury

The going has definitely firmed up in the last week or two and that favours the speedier flat race types. The two that catch the eye here are Andrew Balding’s Storm Force Ten and Alan King’s Gimme Five.

STORM FORCE TEN, GIMME FIVE

Totesport Scoop6

Newbury Saturday Preview

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Richard Johnson stole the show at Newbury on Friday with a treble including two for Philip Hobbs. It’s good to see the Hobbs yard back in form after a miserable Cheltenham where they sent out 15 runners to no avail, one-third of them failing to complete the course.

It was not such a good day for Nicky Henderson but he could be back in the winners’ enclosure after Saturday’s big race with Spartan Angel. The EBF Mare’s Hurdle Finale takes some winning and there are eighteen set to line up on Saturday. You could make a case for most of them and it is no surprise to see the bookmakers going 7-1 the field overnight.

The weight range is no more than 13lbs but bottom weight gives Spartan Angel an excellent charge for the Lambourn stable. She has been very lightly raced since winning a small race at Worcester in the summer. The daughter of Beneficial raced twice at Ascot before Christmas and was a fair second to Batavir. David Pipe’s gelding followed up at Wincanton before disappointing in the Doncaster race won by Call The Cops.

Henderson’s stable were not firing on all cylinders at the time and it may be that she has simply been put away for better ground and/or this race in particular. Hannah’s Princess is another worthy of consideration after winning comfortably on similar ground last time.

Every Tony McCoy winner is cheered to the rafters at present and Financial Climate should go close in the 3.10 race. He never really looked in any danger once he kicked on two fences from home at Sandown and a 4lbs penalty could be lenient. The opposition are a mixture of ageing chasers and unreliable handicappers.

Andrew Balding has kept Storm Force Ten for hurdling this season but he was a late withdrawal from the Cheltenham festival. I had given him a chance in the Fred Winter after a couple of encouraging runs, notably when fourth to Triumph winner Peace And Co. Four-year-old handicaps are a devil to unravel but he won’t mind the quicker ground and may have most to fear from Gimme Five. Alan King has been running this one on the all-weather and he looks quite well in with 10st 10lb.

2.35 Spartan Angel @7-1 Bet365

3.10 Financial Climate @9-2 William Hill

3.45 Storm Force Ten @7-2 Bet365