Category: Horse Racing

Champion Hurdle Ante-Post Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Champion Hurdle is the feature race of the opening day of the Cheltenham festival and the betting market suggests that a new champion will be crowned on March 10th.

Faugheen has been at the head of the market all season and remains unbeaten in eight races for Willie Mullins. The gelding won the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle last year over two and a half miles and has won his trials at Ascot and Kempton this season. The form of both races is open to question, particularly the Christmas Hurdle where Irving and Sign Of A Victory both ran way below expectations.

When we think of the greatest hurdlers such as Sea Pigeon, See You Then and Istabraq, we think of their brilliant hurdling technique as well as their speed. Faugheen has not been entirely convincing at his hurdles this season and this will be his first real test at two-mile championship pace. Odds of around 5-4 look decidedly skinny.

Plenty of people will be hoping to see the old warrior Hurricane Fly win the race for a third time having been successful in 2011 and 2013. It would be truly remarkable to reclaim his title for a second time but it is by no means impossible. He has beaten the reigning champion Jezki three times this season and yet is still available at 8-1 with most firms. Hatton’s Grace (1951) and Sea Pigeon (1981) are the only horses to have previously won this race at the age of eleven and there is no doubt that he is in their class.

Jezki has had a similar campaign to last season when everything fell right for him on Champion Hurdle day. He looked held when being brought almost to a standstill at the final flight at Leopardstown and may be better suited by being held up at the back of the field. He was passed on the run-in by another Mullins runner in Arctic Fire and he could easily be good enough to sneak into the frame.

He was just beaten in the County Hurdle last year but has gone up nearly a stone in the official ratings since. He tracked Hurricane Fly’s run through last time and similar tactics could see him finish in the money at Cheltenham. The New One has won all five races since his unlucky run here last year when hampered by the fall of the ill-fated Our Conor. Like Faugheen, he won the two and a half mile novice at this meeting and is arguably a better horse over that distance.

Arctic Fire @16-1 Stan James

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3 (Non-runner – no bet)

Local Time to boost classic claims in UAE Oaks

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Local Time could put herself in the picture for the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket by winning the UAE Oaks impressively at Meydan on Thursday.

The daughter of Invincible Spirit has won her last five races for Trainer Saeed bin Suroor who is looking for an incredible tenth win in the race. Last year he won the UAE 1000 Guineas and Oaks with the smart filly Ihtimal. She was only beaten three-quarters of a length at Newmarket behind Miss France and finished an unlucky fifth in the Oaks at Epsom. Tragically, she met with a fatal accident on the gallops in January.

Hopefully there will be a brighter future for Godolphin’s latest star filly who would need to be supplemented for the Newmarket classic. That is by no means unlikely and she looks impossible to oppose in the Oaks with stable companion Good Place her nearest market rival.  James Doyle partners the favourite with William Buick aboard Good Place, an improving daughter of Street Cry who should appreciate the step up in distance.

She has been slowly away in both of her races in Dubai this winter but will have plenty of time to settle in this small field. The only realistic danger to the Godolphin duo is Mike de Kock’s Shahrasal who was third in the UAE 1000 Guineas. It is difficult to see any reason why Local Time cannot confirm the form and I don’t see the extra furlong and a half posing a problem.

There are plenty of familiar names in action on Thursday’s card including Outstrip and Safety Check in the Zabeel Mile. Outstrip has been disappointing since winning the Breeders’ Cup juvenile in 2013, although he did finish within three lengths of Kingman last season. He was slowly away here last month and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the grey fitted with some headgear at some point during the summer.

His stable companion Safety Check was an emphatic winner of a Group 2 here last month but steps up to a mile. Six of his seven wins have been over seven furlongs and he could be vulnerable over this distance. Brendan Powell’s Dark Emerald is on a hat-trick while Johan Strauss, Darwin and Short Squeeze are others with claims in a very competitive event.

Local Time 1000 Guineas Newmarket @40-1 888Sport

Protectionist returns on Blue Diamond Stakes day

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Melbourne Autumn Carnival includes three top level feature races at Caulfield on Saturday and the reappearance of Melbourne Cup winner Protectionist.

The Peter Young Stakes sees the return of last season’s Flemington hero as he makes his first start for Kris Lees. He stormed to a four-length success in November under Ryan Moore when trained in Germany by Andreas Wohler and this race is well short of his best trip.

Fiorente managed to win this race before going on to take the Group 1 Australian Cup and that is the route sketched out for Protectionist. Lees has also drawn up a Plan B if the five-year-old proves ineffective at middle-distances with the $1millon Sydney Cup in April as an alternative target. The horse most likely to beat him for speed on Saturday is Paul Beshara’s Happy Trails, three times a Group 1 winner at or around Saturday’s distance.

He won the Mackinnon Stakes and will be sharper for his run earlier this month when staying on into sixth in the CF Orr Stakes.  He has reportedly been working brilliantly since and carries maximum stable confidence this weekend.

Atmospherical could provide Craig Williams with a victory in the Oakleigh Plate after being drawn in barrier 4. The well-fancied Vain Queen and Earthquake are feared most and should be competitive from barriers ten and eleven respectively. Earthquake is unbeaten in three starts at Caulfield and usually runs well fresh.

Atmospherical is a daughter of Northern Meteor and was last seen finishing third to Chautauqua in the Group 2 Rubiton Stakes. That was her first at this distance in five starts and she can reverse the form with runner-up Flamerge who has a nightmare draw in barrier 17.

Fontiton is all the rage for the $1million Blue Diamond Stakes after being drawn in barrier one. Robert Smerdon’s filly will be trying to become the fourth consecutive filly to win this race on Saturday and will be difficult to peg back.

The one that could give her a run for her money is Pride Of Dubai, supplemented at the cost of $55,000 after finishing second in the Group 3 Blue Diamond Colts & Geldings Prelude. He was beaten by Of The Brave (drawn 9) with Sampeah in behind in third place. The son of Street Cry looks to have every chance from barrier five.

Caulfield Saturday

Happy Trails (race 6) @6.0 Bet365

Atmospherical (race 7) @10.0 Bet365*

Pride Of Dubai (race 8) @5.50 Sportsbet

*Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Cheltenham Gold Cup Ante-Post Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

With most bookmakers offering non-runner – no bet on the feature races at Cheltenham, now is a good time to seek out some early value. Bet365 are offering money back on all non-runners at the meeting and the other firms will gradually follow suit as the meeting approaches.

The market for the Cheltenham Gold Cup has been dominated by Silviniaco Conti since he recorded his second King George VI Chase victory in December. Paul Nicholls issued an up-beat report on the gelding this week, suggesting that he is in much better shape than he was last year when fading into fourth place on the run-in. He is obviously the one to beat but does not represent any great value at around 7-2.

Last year’s Gold Cup changed dramatically after the last fence with Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti swamped by three horses arriving late on the opposite side of the track. Leading the charge was Lord Windermere who is back to defend his crown for Jim Culloty. Having won the RSA Chase the previous season, he seems to be one of those horses that peaks at exactly the right time. I felt that he ran a fine trial when third behind Carlingford Lough in the Irish Hennessy and is worth a bet at 14-1 with Ladbrokes. He is as short as 10-1 elsewhere so the 14-1 may not last much longer.

I respect the chance of Many Clouds having supported him in the Hennessy at Newbury at the start of the season. Oliver Sherwood sent out his 1,000th winner not long ago so he knows how to prepare them for the festival. I did not get on him at longer odds so will not be rushing to back him at 8-1. Road To Riches struck me as a doubtful stayer earlier in the season and I have more regard for Djakadam.

There won’t be many Mullins horses on offer at 16-1 at the festival and he could not have won any easier in the fog at Gowran Park in January. With Ruby Walsh aboard, he can bide his time and see how the race unfolds. No decision has yet been made about Foxrock but he has run three terrific races in succession and may not get his favoured soft ground.

I don’t like backing novices in the Gold Cup so cannot see Coneygree featuring while Holywell is worthy of respect. He has won here at the last two festival meetings and Jonjo O’Neill would not be running him unless he felt that he was back to his best.

Tips

Lord Windermere @14-1 Ladbrokes

Djakadam @16-1 Ladbrokes

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3 (Non-runner – no bet)

Paddy Power Cheltenham money-back offer

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Paddy Power have come unstuck in previous years with their generous money-back offers at Cheltenham and they are at it again this year!

In 2012 they offered refunds on all losing bets in the Arkle Chase if odds-on favourite Sprinter Sacre won. Nicky Henderson’s star chaser made short work of his rivals and the following year is was Hurricane Fly in the Champion Hurdle. Last season Vautour romped to victory in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle with Paddy Power refunding bets on the placed horses.

The firm are to refund all losing bets as a free bet on two races at this year’s festival. Willie Mullins is responsible for the favourite in each with Douvan in the Supreme and Un De Sceaux in the Arkle. With the former currently 7-4 favourite and Un De Sceaux the shortest priced favourite of the meeting at 4-7, it is probably a way of generating some interest in the other runners. The offer applies to all bets up to £50/€50 per customer per race.

The offer will be of particular interest to punters who fancy those closest to the favourites in each race. There is a lot of confidence behind Nicky Henderson’s L’Ami Serge in the Supreme and he is currently trading at 9-2 with the Irish firm. The French import remains unbeaten and was particularly impressive when winning the Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown last time out.

The market is similarly lopsided in the Arkle Chase with Vibrato Valtat offered at 5-1 with 10-1 bar. Paul Nicholls trains the grey who has won his last three races over fences culminating in the Kingmaker Chase at Warwick earlier this month. He cruised clear to beat Top Gamble by four and a half lengths to follow up his win at Kempton in December.

He is available at 11-2 elsewhere but the 5-1 with the refund offer should Un De Sceaux fluff his lines is well worth considering. L’Ami Serge is generally 4-1 with other firms so the 9-2 will make plenty of appeal to supporters of Nicky Henderson’s star novice. There does not appear to be much depth to the field for the Supreme and the market currently revolves around the two horses. With non-runner – no bet also applying, it could be a good time to get on the second favourites.

L’Ami Serge @9-2 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

Vibrato Valtat @5-1 Arkle Chase

*Paddy Power special terms apply

Bet365 NR – No Bet on All Cheltenham races!

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

From midnight on Friday, Bet365 are offering non-runner – no bet on all races at this year’s Cheltenham festival! With so many horses still holding multiple entries, this means that you can take a price without the worry of the trainer opting to run the horse in a different race at the meeting.

Up until now, Bet365 have only been offering the non-runner – no bet option on the big four championship races; Cheltenham Gold Cup, Champion Hurdle, Queen Mother Champion Chase and World Hurdle. If you don’t already have a Bet365 account, they are currently offering a 100% welcome bonus up to a maximum of £200.

Most of the recognised Cheltenham trials have already taken place but reigning Champion Chaser Sire de Grugy fluffed his lines at Newbury recently and is out to make amends at Chepstow tomorrow. New customers to Skybet can get 6-1 about the odds-on favourite up to a maximum stake of £5. If all goes to plan for the popular chestnut, your winnings are paid as free bets into your new account.

Gary Moore’s gelding has only three opponents in the 3.35 race but will be conceding lumps of weight. His most dangerous rival looks to be Far West, trained by Paul Nicholls. He was beaten by the useful novice Top Gamble at Newbury last time out and receives 22lbs from the favourite. Grey Gold and Mister Grez complete the field but both were well beaten last time out.

There are two big handicap chases this weekend, the BetBright Chase at Kempton which we have previewed separately, and the Eider Chase at Newcastle. The Eider is a gruelling four miles and one furlong race with Shotgun Paddy attempting to defy top weight of 11st 12lb for Emma Lavelle. Things did not go his way in the Welsh National when he pulled up after an early mistake but he ran with great credit when third at Warwick last time out.

The field also includes the last two winners of the race in Wyck Hill and Portrait King. Both appear to have been brought along steadily with this race in mind. They and Shotgun Paddy all hold entries in the Grand National in April and a prominent showing on Saturday may see their prices cut for Aintree.

Sire de Grugy 6-1 to win 3.35 Chepstow @Skybet *Special bet terms apply