Category: Horse Racing

Caulfield Cup Silverware Heading Abroad Once Again?

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Barely a decade ago, Caulfield Cup Day was, how should we put this delicately, unpleasant. The Melbourne Racing Club would pack the course tighter than a camel’s backside in a sandstorm. In 2005, more than 50,000 sardines crammed into the Heath to watch Railings win the Caulfield Cup. But the public’s taste for over-priced and over-crowded racedays has waned since those halcyon days of the 2000s so barely 30,000 will watch Saturday’s $3,000,000 BMW Caulfield Cup on track. That means we’re likely to be spared that priceless experience of mile-long bar/tote queues behind thousands of private school kids in dodgy suits with even dodgier IDs.

Aussie thoroughbred royalty

There’s still one place that’s assured to be packed to capacity on Caulfield Cup Day – the barriers for the day’s feature. With the scratching of Fanatic, De Little Engine has earned a call-up to ensure an 18-horse field. The richest 2400m handicap in the world was first run in 1879 when won by Newminster. The honour roll reads like a hall of fame list – from Rising Fast, Tulloch and Galilee to Ming Dynasty, Might And Power and Northerly. Just 11 horses have taken out the Caulfield-Melbourne Cups double in the same year (last achieved in 2001 by Ethereal) while only seven horses have won the race twice.

Dunaden and dusted

The media mercilessly hype the presence of the international runners in town for the Melbourne Cup. History shows that those horses have an abysmal record without a first-up run in Australia, but it’s a much different story when they have their debut run at the 2400m of the Caulfield Cup. Four genuine international runners – Taufan’s Melody (1998), All The Good (2008), Dunaden (2012) and Admire Ratki (2014) – have all shown that it’s possible to win this race without a previous start Down Under. Indeed, the victory of Dunaden stands out as arguably the greatest in the race’s history. A year after he won the Melbourne Cup, Dunaden became the first horse to win the Caulfield Cup from wider than barrier 15 (starting from gate 18), and the first to win after being allotted the top weight at acceptances (58kg).

Taking on the favourite

It’s virtually impossible to draw an accurate speedmap for this year’s Cup, but it certainly looms as a year where the visitors could pinch another win. Jameka (gate 13) is an easing $4.00 favourite with Ladbrokes and she leads a fairly lacklustre bunch of local contenders. The 4yo mare’s only win at this distance was her plodding effort on a bog track in last year’s VRC Oaks. She looked terrific when second to Hartnell in the Turnbull (2000m) after crushing the G3 Naturalism (2000m) field at Caulfield two back. However, barrier 13 is a tricky alley, and Nicholas Hall may struggle to have her better than three-out in the running. She’s a clear top pick among the Aussies but unders at 3-1.

Scottish the one to beat

The money has started to trickle in the direction of Scottish, but it’s likely to be more of a flood closer to the jump. The Irish-bred 5yo gelding for Charlie Appleby and the Godolphin team should be closer to the speed than the bulk of his UK rivals. He has been to 2400m before with the highlight a 1.5-length second to Highland Reel, with five lengths back to third. All four of his wins have been on firm ground, and he’ll get a good (3-4)run with mild conditions forecast for Melbourne over the next 48 hours. Metropolitan winner Sir John Hawkwood offers the best value at $15 (William Hill).

Sacred Elixir Just The Tonic in Caulfield Guineas

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October in Melbourne means having sunscreen and thermal underwear at the ready as anything can happen weather-wise, and the Caulfield Guineas is no exception.

On the eve of the first million-dollar race of the Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival – the AUD $1 million Ladbrokes Caulfield Guineas (1600m) – the Caulfield track is rated a good (3), but cooler conditions and showers are forecast prior to the first race.

Expect the track to remain in the good (3-4) range, while the rail will be in the true position for the 10-race card. Fingers crossed, the track should provide an even chance for on-pace and run-on horses.

Good medicine for the Guineas

Punters couldn’t scribble the name of Kiwi gelding Sacred Elixir into their black books quick enough after his stirring win in the Guineas Prelude (1400m) here two weeks ago. Parked off the speed by Damian Lane, he gathered the leaders up with ease.

Yes, Impending’s win in the Stan Fox (1500m) at Rosehill rated stronger, but there are two knocks on the Godolphin colt – he’s drawn in 10 and is making his first start at Caulfield, which has brought better horses undone than this promising Lonhro colt. A total of 11 of the past 14 winners have come from single digit gates.

Thousand reasons to stick with Foxplay

The sheer weight of numbers should mean at least one of the Sydney-siders pinches the AUD $500,000 Schweppes Thousand Guineas for the 3yo fillies, and it’s hard to find a knock against Chis Waller’s eye-catching filly Foxplay.

She cruised home in the G2 Furious (1200m) at Randwick before finding a hole late to dart through to take out the G2 Tea Rose (1400m) three weeks ago. With Hugh Bowman aboard and the perfect draw from barrier 5, the $3.70 available on William Hill still offers about half a point of value. Fellow Sydney horse Global Glamour looks a logical pick for the quinella.

Winx, and you’ll miss it

In 1939, Ajax was sent out a 1-40 (or $1.025) favourite to win the Rawson Stakes at Rosehill. He faced just two rivals – Spear Chief and Allunga. The former duly ended Ajax’s hopes of a 19th successive win in what is widely recognised as the greatest upset in Australian turf history.

Does Winx face a similar fate in the G1 $600,000 Caulfield Stakes? Almost certainly not. One of the mare’s rivals, Black Heart Bart, has already captured a pair of G1s this spring (and both at Caulfield) but is untried over 2000m, while He Or She’s connections are assured $54,000 for third. From a betting perspective, best to watch this one.

Strike on the counter

In contrast to the Caulfield Stakes, the field for the G1 $500,000 Toorak Handicap is stacked with value. Four of the past five winners have come through the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes and have been third-up. Counterattack was the beaten favourite in that race but stuck on nicely and can easily bounce back here.

He’s Our Rokkii is a deserved favourite, but the inside draw this late in the day isn’t the best spot to be. In contrast, Counterattack will jump from gate 8 with the country’s best jockey James McDonald aboard for Chris Waller.

BetCircaGuineas.2-sacredelixir

Superstar Mare Tops The Billing On Guineas Day

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From the moment the final sirens sound in the weekend AFL and NRL Grand Finals, the Australian sporting psyche shifts to the track for the business end of the 2016 Spring Racing Carnival. While things wrap-up in NSW with this Saturday’s Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes at Randwick, the serious spring racing is just cranking up south of the border, starting at Caulfield.

Guineas Day is for the purists. The racing is black-type from top to bottom, the stars of the turf are out in force and the yobbos and D-listers are still a week away from making their carnival debut. The 3yos take centre stage with the running of the Thousand Guineas and Caulfield Guineas. Cox Plate contenders will tune-up in the Caulfield Stakes while 13 of the country’s better milers will contest the Toorak Handicap.

Bias – what bias?

All three of Melbourne’s Spring Carnival venues feature vastly different layouts. The Caulfield track, operated by the Melbourne Racing Club (MRC), is a triangular-shaped layout, comprising three straights with a total circumference of 2080 metres and a finishing straight of 367 metres. Track bias has been a persistent issue. Last season’s MRC Carnival was almost reduced to farce with the track rating vastly different on the back section (slow) compared to the home straight (good). So far, so good this spring, with the track racing evenly in the recent Memsie and Underwood Stakes meetings.

Watch the gate, mate

It’s absolutely crucial to consider the rail position and barrier draw for races over specific distances at Caulfield. There are just short chutes of 200m from both the 1400m and 1600m starts. If the rail is out more than 3m, it’s bloody tough for the backmarkers even if the track is favouring off-pace runners. In contrast, barrier draws aren’t terribly important from the sprint starts (1000m, 1100m and 1200m) or the 2000m start. We’ll talk about the 2400m start of the Caulfield Cup next week.

She’s back

Guineas Day marks the return to Melbourne of the undoubted superstar of Australian thoroughbred racing. 2015 Cox Plate winner and reigning horse of the year Winx hasn’t been defeated since running second to Gust Of Wind in the 2015 Australian Guineas at Randwick. She’s since won her past 11, all at Group level, taking her winnings north of AUD $7 million. Unfortunately, the 5yo mare is likely to face just two rivals in the G1 Caulfield Stakes, but that field will include Black Heart Bart as he shoots for a third Group 1 title for the spring.

Tosen targets Toorak

One of the more intriguing runners on the card is Japanese import Tosen Stardom. Now in the care of reigning premier trainer Darren Weir, the 5yo entry was being aimed at the Cox Plate, but a leg wound suffered while being floated to Sydney for a George Main Stakes battle against Winx forced Weir to scratch him. Weir is now setting Tosen Stardom for middle-distance features like Saturday’s Group 1 Toorak Handicap (1600m) given the time lost to build his fitness base for the 2000m races. He’ll start on the top line of betting alongside Bon Aurum and He’s Our Rokkii.

Big fields, big interest

The nation’s best 3yo milers have turned out in force for the AUD $1 million Caulfield Guineas and AUD $500,000 Thousand Guineas for the fillies. A 14-horse field will contest the day’s feature where Impending for Team Godolphin remain a $4.40 favourite despite drawing gate 10. Hawkes Racing’s Divine Prophet ($4.80) and Kiwi colt Sacred Elixir at ($6.50) drew 1 and 7 respectively. Foxplay from the all-conquering Chris Waller stable will start a $2.60 top pick in the Thousand Guineas.

*All quoted odds in this article are from Caulfield Guineas sponsor, Ladbrokes.

Doncaster Racing: Will Idaho Deliver in the 2016 St Leger?

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Doncaster Racing’s St Leger has long since been considered by horse racing aficionados and betting enthusiasts as one of the “Jewels in the Crown” of the flat season. This Group 1 encounter at Doncaster will be watched by thousands trackside, millions more around the UK and indeed around the globe. It is one of the most popular races with punters in September and this years’ race will be no different. Some of the finest three-year-old fillies and colts will be on show and the key word for all punters will be “value”.

In the past few seasons it has been tough to find Derby winners in contention when it came to the St Leger, with the one notable exception being Camelot in 2012 that finished runner-up to Encke. So just where is the value in this race, and where should you be putting your money?

Where is the Value?

Well value is subjective with punters, but if you are looking for a strong short priced contender then the 2016 St Leger at Doncaster will not disappoint you. Idaho looks set to not only start as favourite this Saturday but looks likely to be at least Evens and possibly odds on currently standing at around 4/5 with most firms, with Skybet and Betfair currently being a standout 5/6.

As it stands the fifteen runner field looks really competitive should Idaho start to struggle, but seeing as the horse looked so impressive last time out at York in the Great Voltigeur stakes then that is hard to see happening. What was so impressive about that performance was how the race was run. Idaho was held up early on and entered the final 2 furlongs with plenty to do.

However, if there is one thing an Aidan O’Brien horse is noted for when it comes to major races, it’s being well prepared! Idaho travelled well throughout that race and won by a length and a half. The market for the St Leger reacted accordingly, and the odds for Idaho to land the “double” were immediately cut to 6/4, and they have steadily fallen since as more and more punters view this horse as being the one to beat.

The Muntahaa Threat

This years’ race is not just about one horse though, and there are a few other contenders that will attract attention as the race grows near. It will be interesting to see what happens to horses like Muntahaa, for example, who currently stands second favourite and is a best priced 11/2 with several firms including 888sport, Betfred and William Hill.

So what of Muntahaa’s chances and can he repeat his recent good performance at Chester where he won from a handicap of 108? Many people seem to think that he has a great chance and the market seems to think so too. The American horse Red Verdon and Housesofparliament are two other contenders with the latter coming a close second to Idaho in the Betway Great Voltigeur last month.

Once again trained by Aidan O’Brien, this is a mount that could well come up trumps on Saturday at Doncaster. So what of Red Verdon? Recent handicap wins at Chester and Haydock and a creditable performance in the Derby seem to give the horse a decent shot here. On the minus side though is the fact that the St Leger is 1 mile 6 furlongs and 132 yards (2,937 metres), and that could prove to be a stiff test for Red Verdon, plus trainer Ed Dunlop has been cautious about the horses’ chances.

He stated that the horse had been suffering with health issues of late and that it has been difficult to get the horse ready for the Doncaster race. How much do we read into that? Well one thing is for sure come Saturday, when they come under orders he will certainly be in it to win it!

Cheltenham Day One

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Roll up roll up Cheltenham is finally back. After the devastation of last year opening day where Annie Power fell and a crazy amount of multiples went down the drain, punters will be hoping that history doesn’t repeat itself on Day one of the 2016 Cheltenham Festival.

Roll up Min, Douvan, Vroom Vroom Mag and Annie Power. This years “nailed on” multiple. We however are not entirely convinced. Min was smashed antepost from 100/1 down to 7/4 after demolishing a few low grade fields in Ireland. Annie Power has only been out once where she did the same, ran against two yaks and won at 1/20 with her head in her chest.

 

Douvan and Vroom Vroom Mag have strong credentials. Douvan is possibly the best jumps horse around currently, realistically so long he jumps, he wins. This is why the Coral 50/1 offer (even tho only for a £1) is a decent offer. Not got a Coral account? Now you have no excuse what so ever.

 

Vroom Vroom Mag runs in the egg and spoon grade one against the mares and from what we’ve seen she’ll just have to jump around to win also.

We firmly believe Min should be taken on, we just haven’t seen enough to suggest she’s a stone cold cert as the odds suggest. What to take her on with though? Thats the tough one. York hill has recently been well backed due to rumours Ruby Walsh might ride him, we find that hard to believe, but if he does that a massive indicator as to Min’s realistic chances in the race. The 11/2 currently available might not be around come the start of the day tomorrow. We will be looking to lay Min, just cant have it winning the Supreme, no sir.

The Arkle is a fascinating race, we firmly believe Douvan wins, but if there is any mistake or he doesn’t participate, Vaniteux is the obvious each way bet to nothing. Currently had 11/2 with Betway. We’ve had a good go each way at slightly bigger prices so, should Douvan win we make a tiny profit, but if he messes up somehow, Vaniteux should be there to pick up the pieces.

Cheeky each way accumulator:

YorkHill – Supreme  5/1William Hill

Vanitieux – Arkle 5/1 William Hill

The New One –  Champion Hurdle 6/1 William Hill

Pollypeachum – Mares 6/1 William Hill

£10 ew will return £250

LETS DO THIS

 

Horse Racing Preview – Monday 18th May

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There is horse racing action on turf at Redcar, Leicester and Windsor on Monday and we have tips at all three meetings.

The 3.50 at Redcar sees a very quick reappearance for Desert Law who finished third at York last week. We made him a speculative each-way selection in a big field and he stuck on well enough after looking to hold every chance at the furlong pole. It is interesting that he turns out again so quickly with Graham Lee taking over in the saddle. He may have seen too much daylight that day as he is not the easiest horse to win with. The big danger looks to be Noble Asset who was a good second at Doncaster last time.

The 7.05 race at Windsor has only attracted three runners but Silver Wings looks good value at around even money. He bounced out smartly and made all here on his debut but missed a beat at the start at Chester. He soon made up the ground and looked set to win at the furlong pole only to be out-battled by Rah Rah. That could turn out to be very decent form and he is preferred to Soapy Aitken.

In the 7.35 race, Roger Varian runs Tazffin, a well-bred maiden who was second at Newmarket to Irish Rookie on her debut last season. That filly was second in the French 1000 Guineas this spring while Tazffin’s dam was the useful Tarfshi, winner of the Pretty Polly Stakes in Ireland. Varian has decided to run her in a hood on Monday so she may have her quirks but most of her rivals have never seen a racecourse before.

At Leicester, there is a fascinating handicap at 7.45. Richard Fahey was overshadowed at York by Mark Johnston last week but did finally get on the score-sheet on Friday and has had two more winners since. He saddles impressive Musselburgh winner, Third Time Lucky.

He made all to slam Go Dan Go on the Scottish track and looks very leniently treated here on a mark of 79. The runner-up has since won twice, last time by five lengths off a mark of 74. There are dangers, particularly Godolphin’s Muqarred and the John Gosden-trained Occult, but 9-2 looks a good price for the Fahey runner.

Desert Law 3.50 Redcar @3-1 Ladbrokes

Silver Wings 7.05 Windsor @11-10 Betfair

Tazffin 7.35 Windsor @2-1 Bet365

Third Time Lucky 7.45 Leicester @9-2 Ladbrokes