Category: Horse Racing

Sha Tin 16th May Tips!

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

HONG KONG RACING SATURDAY 16 MAY 2015

SHA TIN

Hong Kong Wrap Up

Back to back meets on a Saturday but we will be back to Sunday next week with some great racing leading into some very high class Group racing the following week so stick with it and enjoy what is heading our way. Not an easy card today but the last four races certainly look full of some excellent talent and we should be getting collects in those races. Singapore is the main focus this weekend in this part of the world and we have some great Hong Kong raiders who should make their mark once again in this International Group Meet and I really do like their chances.

In the 4th Leg of the Global Sprint Challenge we have Lucky Nine-Aerovelocity and Rich Tapestry and I believe we will go very close to trifecting this race if not the exacta. You can throw in No 5 Zac Spirit for the added exotic selection.

In race 10 we have Military Attack and Dan Excel. Dan Excel won this race last year and has been working up very well leading into this and does look primed for today but you cannot leave out Military Attack who has looked a bit under his normal self recently but on his best form will certainly go close here.

Both races look exciting and the Hong Kong raiders should prove to be very hard to hold out here.

Enjoy the form this weekend at Sha Tin and Singapore and above all good luck.

 

Track and Conditions: Turf C Course with the exception of races 1 and 10 which are on the All Weather Dirt Track.

 

Expected Weather: Mainly cloudy with a few showers and a top temperature of 31 degrees. The wind will be from the south at about the 30 Km/h mark but occasionally gusting up to 40Km/h which will aid closers with a tailwind down the straight but more so on the turf than the AWT.

 

 Best Bet: Race 6 No 1 Athena Baby

Best Value: Race 8 No 7 Sergeant Titanium

Best Exotic Races: 7-8-9-10

Quaddie:-

Race 7: 7-10-9-1 Race 8: 6-7 Race 9: 5-2-8-7 Race 10: 7-5-1-2-12

 

Race 1: — Time: 5.00am GMT—Distance: 1200m—Class 5-     AWT

Top Pick: No 3 Dragon Energy

Value Selection: No 6 Joy Together

Exotic Inclusions: No 2 Super King Star and No 1 Palepale

 

Race Overview

 

This is the most difficult race that I have had to look at all season so for me it is not the type of race you want to get involved in at all but having said that we may get lucky. Dragon Energy drops back in class today and his last run at this class produced a nice win on this surface over this distance with a similar weight to what he carries today. Comes up with a nice draw in gate three and should be given every chance with Zac Purton in the saddle. Joy Together dropped back in class last start and should have improved as he was not too far away at his previous starts at class four. However he gave ground entering the straight and may very well have had a few issues but was unable to be scoped as he was fractious. May prove to overlook that run and give him a bit of a chance here at decent odds.

 

 

Race 2: — Time: 5.30am GMT—Distance: 1000m—Class 4

Top Pick: No 14 Horse Supremo

Selection: No 9 Golden Bauhinia

Exotic Inclusions: No 6 Panang Hall and No 2 Sugar / No 4 Mr Wright

 

Race Overview

 

Horse Supremo does appear to go best on the All Weather Track however he does possess good gate speed and has came up with a nice draw in gate 12 which should see him in a nice position throughout the running down the grandstand rail and can sneak into the finish with a bit of a chance if he can hold on over the concluding stages. Golden Bauhinia it’s been a fair while since he carried a weight as light as this and it has to put him in a decent position down the Sha Tin straight which is his main course and distance. His form has been reasonable this season without winning and not too far away recently considering he has not had much of a draw but comes up with gate 10 today which will help him get down the grandstand rail and should be well positioned in the running.

 

 

Race 3: — Time: 6.00am GMT—Distance: 2200m—Class 5

Top Pick: No 4 Win Chance

Value Selection: No 10 High Speed Metro

Exotic Inclusions: No 8 Sweet Bean and No 9 Smart Guy

 

Race Overview

 

Win Chance looks to have found a bit of form since dropping back to this class and his last two runs have been quite solid with a 2nd followed up with a nice win last start over the 2000m at Sha Tin. Has placed on two occasions this season over this distance all be it at Happy Valley. If he holds form he should run well today. High Speed Metro has put together a few nice runs recently and won over this distance three starts back all be it at Happy Valley at this class but appears to be holding form with two good 2nd’s since. He has trained on well and still looks well weighted and has to be a consideration once again today at current nice each way odds.

 

 

 

Race 4: — Time: 6.30am GMT—Distance: 1400m—Class 4

Top Pick: No 2 Run Forrest

Value Selection: No 3 Ah Bo

Exotic Inclusions: No 9 Beauty Ahead and No 10 Chevalier Star

 

. Race Overview

 

Run Forrest showed good improvement to win at his third start in Hong Kong over this distance last start. As a result he goes up in the weights but would not have to improve too much to give this a good shake as well. Suited by the draw in gate 6 and has Zac Purton in the saddle. Ah Bo looks very close to breaking his Hong Kong duck as he has been placed on five occasions this season and has gone very close at the last two occasions. Drawn wide but he retains his last start hoop and he can close and should be getting home hard once again today.

 

Race Overview

 

   Race 5: — Time: 7.00am GMT—Distance: 1200m—Class 3

Top Pick: No 1 Sun Jewellery

Value Selection: No 6 Lucky Bubbles

Exotic Inclusions: No 7 Spice Sure and No 4 Star Of Bond

 

Race Overview

 

Sun Jewellery having his first start in Hong Kong and looks to have the ability to go well first up as his trails have been good and all have been with race day hoop in Joao Moreira in the saddle. Comes to Hong Kong with decent Victorian form and put together a couple of wins there. Drawn wide but does possess decent gate speed and is expected to cross and be in a decent position in the running. Lucky Bubbles just the one start in Hong Kong and it was for a nice closing 3rd over the 1000m from an outside draw which was not really suitable over the straight course. Comes up with a nice draw today in gate 4 and retains Brett Prebble in the saddle and does look a touch of value as he has trained on nicely as well.

 

 

Race 6: — Time: 07.35am GMT—Distance: 1600m—Class 4

Top Pick: No 1 Athena Baby

Value Selection: No 5 Winnam

Exotic Inclusions: No 10 Glorious Ryder and No 3 Fighting Boy

 

Race Overview

 

Athena Baby has certainly improved leaps and bounds at his last two starts which he won well with Joao Moreira in the saddle. He retains the mount today and should get a nice trail in the running from gate 2. Only has to carry the weight here to be another very solid chance looking at this field. Winnam won over this distance five starts back and has had to shoulder extra weight since then. Stuck on well last start for a good third and does look a bit of an each way chance today with Zac Purton back in the saddle.

 

 

Race 7: — Time: 8.05am GMT—Distance: 1600m—Class 2

Top Pick: No 7 Celestial Smile

Value Selection: No 10 Club Life

Exotic Inclusions: No 9 Selkirk Star and No 1 Apollo’s Choice

 

Race Overview

 

Celestial Smile is far too consistent to leave out here. He has had 14 starts in Hong and has not been out of a place which is most amazing and Joao Moreira has been on him more times than not. Carried a light weight last start and ran a nice 2nd. Up a touch in the weights as a result of his consistency but still looks in ok. Comes up with a nice draw and should get a good trail in the running. Looks a very good chance if you can get each way odds but he may very well be a bit unders with Joao in the saddle. Club Life rarely runs a bad race, a consistent type and more times than not he is at each way odds and looks fairly well placed once again today. Up a touch in the weights but still looks ok for his 3rd start at class 2.

 

Race 8: — Time: 8.35am GMT—Distance: 1280m—Class 3

Top Pick: No 6 Holmes Legend

Value Selection: No Sergeant Titanium

Exotic Inclusions: No 11 Cash Courier and No 13 Monsieur Mogok

 

Race Overview

 

Holmes Legend does not stay in form for too long but he did run a nice 3rd over this distance last start and Joao Moreira has jumped straight on board today which gives you the impression that he should run well once again today as he still looks in well at the weights. Sergeant Titanium has shown to be an improving type and went up to this class two starts back. Went well on the first occasion for a nice 3rd but looked to have issues last start when he was found to be lame in the right front leg. He certainly was not happy and refused to be scoped. Has worked well since and should be back on track today. Looks value on his previous form. Interesting to see that Joao Moreira has gone off him and jumped straight onto Holmes Legend. However he has a very good replacement in Brett Prebble “The Master of the Weave ” 🙂 in the saddle.

 

 

Race 9: — Time: 9.10pm GMT—Distance: 1400m— Class 3

Top Pick: No 5 Amazing Kids

Value Selection: No 2 Why Why

Exotic Inclusions: No 8 Super Talent and No 7 Laugh Out Loud

 

Race Overview

 

Amazing Kids just the one start in Hong Kong and it was for a very nice closing win over the 1200m. Was to step up to the 1400m which does look right up his ally last start but was found to be sweating up a bit and as a result was withdrawn as he did look to have a fever. All good since then and track work has been spot on. Drawn well to suite and Joao Moreira jumps straight into the saddle. Why Why has only been out of a place on one occasion since arriving in Hong Kong and that was for a 4th. Up in distance today but has been closing off very hard recently over the 1200m and this just may suite. He is certainly weighted at his best but does come across as a decent chance here.

 

Race 10: — Time: 9.45pm GMT—Distance: 1200m—Class 1

Top Pick: No: 7 Dehere’s The Love

Value Selection: No 5 Master Kochanwong

Exotic Inclusions: No 1 Domineer and No 2 Access Years / No 12 Pablosky

 

                                                         Race Overview

 

A fair few chances here once again but Dehere’s The Love has been lightly races this season but is in cracking form and really does appreciate this surface. Comes up with a nice draw in gate 4 and retains Joao Moreira in the saddle. Only has to stay in form to give this a real shake once again and his track work does indicate that. Master Kochanwong has been going through the classes well and had a crack at group racing last start, found it a bit rich but still ran a very nice race. Up in the weights but still looks in well against this field and has to come under consideration today as he has came up with a nice draw in gate 5 and Douglas Whyte is back in the saddle.    

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Preakness Stakes Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

American Pharoah bids to follow up his Kentucky Derby victory in Saturday’s Preakness Stakes at Pimlico.

Bob Baffert’s son of Pioneerof The Nile battled to a one-length success at Churchill Downs. He beat Firing Line with stable companion Dortmund two lengths away in third. Both horses take American Pharoah again here.

It is difficult to see what his rivals could do here to reverse the form. Dortmund was soon driven to the lead and was beaten entering the final furlong while Gary Stevens also gave Firing Line a forceful ride. The latter did not surrender with a fight and only went down inside the final 100 yards.

The bookmakers certainly don’t see a change in the outcome on Saturday with American Pharoah priced at 4-6, Firing Line at 4-1 and Dortmund at a top price of 6-1.  With only eight runners, the draw should not come into play and it was worth remembering that the favourite overcame a tough draw to win the Kentucky Derby.

Derby fifth Danzig Moon and the unplaced Mr Z are also in the field but are difficult to fancy and it will be surprising if the big three don’t battle this out. American Pharoah suffered an injury which ruled him out of the Breeders’ Cup last year so has done well to win three quick races this spring. He was not seriously tested to win Grade 2 and Grade 1 events at Oaklawn but was forced to pull out all the stops by Firing Line.

It all looks set up for an exciting re-match. The elusive American Triple Crown is his target this year and it looks as though Firing Line is going to push him all the way. It could even revive memories of Affirmed and his tremendous battles with Alydar back in 1978. The pair finished first and second in all three Triple Crown races.

The race is due off at 11.18 UK Time and can be viewed live on Racing UK.

Best UK odds

American Pharoah 8-11 Paddy Power

Dortmund 6-1 Stan James

Mr Z 50-1 Skybet

Danzig Moon 18-1 Paddy Power

Tale Of Verve 100-1 Bet365

Bodhisattva 66-1 Bet365

Divining Rod 20-1 Stan James

Firing Line 4-1 Stan James

Newbury Preview – Saturday 16th May

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Notarised (tipped at 12-1) kept us ahead of the bookmakers at York on Friday and the show moves on to Newbury. The feature race is the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes at 3.45 with a huge field of eighteen runners set to go to post.

Night Of Thunder is the form choice having won the 2000 Guineas last season for Richard Hannon. He went on to chase home Kingman in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot and was an unlucky loser at the same course on his final start. He is having his first run since October and there may be better value elsewhere.

I have followed Aljamaaheer over the past couple of seasons and was surprised to see Roger Varian run him in the top sprint races last season. He was placed in this race back in 2013 and went on to finish a close second in the Queen Anne Stakes over a mile. He looks overpriced at 25-1 after finishing an unlucky second at Leicester on his seasonal reappearance.

It may also pay to have a little each-way on Moohaarib who won with plenty in hand at Ascot last time. He had previously hung away in the closing stages of the Lincoln but looks just the type to run well in a race like this.

Telescope looks difficult to oppose after his fine run at Newmarket last time. He was just caught on the post by Second Step but will strip fitter in the Aston Park Stakes and has 6lbs and upwards in hand of his rivals here.

The 3.10 is the London Gold Cup and the one that interests me here is the bottom weight Dutch Uncle. Ed Dunlop’s colt was beaten by Jack Hobbs in December before winning his maiden at Wolverhampton. He ran a cracker when second to Subcontinent at Doncaster first time out and the winner has gone in again since. The form received another boost when King Bolete won a hot handicap on Friday and Dutch Uncle has to be the selection here at 9-1.

Our final tip at Newbury on Saturday is Pamona in the Listed Fillies’ Stakes at 4.20. Luca Cumani’s filly was an impressive winner at Newmarket in October and looks destined to better things.

Telescope 2.0 @4-5 Bet365

Dutch Uncle 3.10 @9-1 Paddy Power

Aljamaaheer 3.45 @25-1 Stan James (each-way)

Moohaarib 3.45 @14-1 Bet365 (each-way)

Pamona 4.20 @7-2 William Hill

Golden Horn Dante victory sparks Derby debate

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Dante Stakes at York on Thursday was meant to finally provide a clear-cut favourite for the Epsom Derby. The race featured ante-post favourite Jack Hobbs, albeit only the winner of a Sandown handicap on his previous start, as well as Group 1 winner Elm Park and the Aidan O’Brien-trained John F Kennedy.

In the event, all three were beaten by a horse not entered for the Derby in Golden Horn. He is a stable companion of Jack Hobbs and trainer John Gosden had hinted that he felt that his form was superior to that of the favourite. There is a £75,000 fee for supplementing for Epsom, not usually a barrier to those owners fortunate enough to possess a serious Derby contender.

The problem is that Anthony Oppenheimer has always believed that Golden Horn would not stay beyond a mile and a quarter. Both he and Gosden were besieged by the media after the race in an effort to nail down their Epsom plans. Instead, the French Derby over a the Dante distance remains a real possibility. To add to the confusion, Jack Hobbs may even be re-directed to Royal Ascot with Gosden clearly feeling that he still has a lot to learn about racing.

The vibes were that Oppenheimer would listen to Gosden’s opinion and the trainer seemed to be leaning towards a tilt at the Derby, whilst making it clear that it was not his decision to make. Bookmakers initially offered 5-1 about Golden Horn but only 6-4 with a run. By late evening, he was only 3-1 or 15-8 with Betfair with a run.

Elm Park looked to be going well when he took up the running in the home straight but he started to hang and dropped away to finish third. It may have been a combination of fitness and feeling the faster ground but trainer Andrew Balding was happy enough and Epsom is the next stop. I don’t think that there will be a stampede to take the 8-1 on offer about him and I would worry if the going is quick on Derby day.

Aidan O’Brien ruled out the prospect of running 2000 Guineas winner Gleneagles who will definitely stay in Ireland for their Guineas instead. Zawraq, winner of the Leopardstown 2000 Guineas Trial, is the only other horse quoted in single figures. If Golden Horn is supplemented, he could start a very short priced favourite. If he heads to France instead, we may see one of the most open Derby’s in recent memory.

York Preview – Friday 15th May

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Dante day at York certainly went the way of the bookmakers with the only winning favourite being in the two-year-old maiden race. The victory of Golden Horn and continuing uncertainty about him being supplemented for Epsom has left the Derby picture as murky as ever.

The final day of the meeting features the Yorkshire Cup and that grand old servant, Brown Panther. He finally gained a well-deserved Group 1 victory in the Irish St Leger last season and was last seen winning the Dubai Gold Cup impressively. All ground seems to come alike to him these days and his stamina could see him home again on Friday.

Romsdal and Snow Sky are the young pretenders here and both were placed in classics last season. Romsdal won well enough at Kempton but I was disappointed with how easily he curled up at Newbury last time when challenged. He plugged on into third behind Arab Spring after making the running and I expect to see him ridden with more restraint this time. His Newbury defeat seems to have convinced connections that he would be better going down the Ascot Gold Cup route rather than looking at the top mile and a half races.

The opening two-year-old race looks wide open with several previous winners. Many of them won on the all-weather including New Road Side who made all to win easily at Southwell. That performance was more pleasing to the eye than the victories of either Delizia or Athas An Bhean and she gets the vote at around 6-1.

The second race on the card is a typical York handicap over a mile and a half. You can make a case for most of them but a couple of form lines suggest that Notarised could go well here for Mark Johnston. He was third at Hamilton last time out and finished seven lengths ahead of Esteaming. He meets that one on similar terms and is worth each-way support at around 12-1.

Top Tug and Ajman Bridge will be popular but don’t represent great value. Top Tug ran pretty flat at Newmarket first time out, although he will be better for this trip, while Ajman Bridge has not won since his second career start and yet has gone up over a stone in the weights.

Our final selection is Yasmeen in the 3.45 race. John Gosden’s filly looked very smart when winning on her debut at Newbury and the form has been boosted since. She can get the better of stable companion Sperry who won well at Ascot in the blue of Godolphin.

New Road Side 2.10 @6-1 BetVictor

Notarised 2.40 @12-1 Bet365

Brown Panther 3.15 @9-4 William Hill

Yasmeen 3.45 @5-2 William Hill

York Preview – Thursday 14th May

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Betcirca followers were up 25 points to level stakes on Wednesday’s sports betting advice. Mahsoob (7-2) started the ball rolling at York and was followed by Algar Lad (16-1). The Champions League semi-final second leg between Real Madrid and Juventus yielded a further ten points profit after we correctly forecast the score line, the first goal scorer and the number of goals.

Thursday’s racing at York is all about the Dante Stakes, a race which looks certain to spark a major shake-up in the Epsom Derby betting. I have been scratching my head to think of an occasion when a handicap winner was made Derby favourite and I have so far failed to come up with one. Even trainer John Gosden has described it as “a bit silly” but we will know how silly after the Dante. Jack Hobbs is the horse in question and he is joined by stable companion Golden Horn.

Aidan O’Brien’s John F Kennedy ran too badly to be true last time but does not carry maximum stable confidence and I’m sticking with the Group 1 form of Elm Park. I followed him as a two-year-old and missing the Guineas due to the ground may have been a blessing in disguise.

After solving the conundrum of the six-furlong sprint on Wednesday I have to take a stab at Thursday’s five furlong dash. David O’Meara sounded certain that he would not be running Algar Lad again so I’m going for Desert Law who was not far behind him at Ripon. Unlike many of these, he is better at five furlongs than six.

Bragging is difficult to oppose having won at Newmarket despite looking likely to need the race. That was her first race beyond a mile and she was finishing strongly so could be quite a force over ten furlongs. Several of her rivals would prefer more cut in the ground and/or a longer trip.

David O’Meara could strike in another competitive handicap with Fort Bastion. He went for a repeat win in the Thirsk Hunt Cup but never saw daylight all the way up the straight, finishing on a tight rein. He can reverse the form with runner-up Off Art who is lightly raced and feared most.

Tendu looks solid in the sprint at 4.20 after chasing home Limato at Ascot. The winner is surely going to take high honours in the sprinting division this season. Moscato is a typically progressive Sir Mark Prescott stayer and can extend his sequence to five in the last.

Desert Law 2.10 @14-1 William Hill

Bragging 2.40 @5-2 Paddy Power

Elm Park 3.15 @4-1 Paddy Power

Fort Bastion 3.45 @8-1 Betfair

Tendu 4.20 @5-4 Ladbrokes

Moscato 5.20 @11-4 Ladbrokes