Category: Live Sports News

Watford Look for Redemption in Mid-Table Clash

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Southampton, fresh from their EFL final loss to Man United last Sunday, travel to Watford for this mid-table clash.

Watford

After a turbulent run of form over the festive period, leading some to ask whether they might be dragged into the relegation dogfight, Watford are looking all but safe with 31 points, 9 points clear of the zone. Walter Mazzarri will be looking to capitalise on a light February schedule of only 3 games, and a run of fixtures against Southampton, Palace and Sunderland in March to pick up the points needed to put any question of relegation to bed for the season. The Italian will also want to make amends for last Saturday’s somewhat disappointing result against West Ham, having led from 3 minutes in and against ten men, they went on to concede a goal and the win in the last quarter of the match.

The big news for Watford is new signing Mauro Zarate picking up a cruciate ligament injury, putting him out of action until August. They will also be without first choice keeper Costel Pantilimon, Nordin Amrabat, Roberto Pereyra. Daryl Janmaat and Christian Kabasele are both in doubt.

Southampton

A terrific performance against United in the EFL final last weekend saw the Saints come within 5 minutes of extra time, having brought the game back from 2:0 down, with a goal unfairly ruled out, Southampton will be justifiably devastated with the outcome. They will have to put the result out of their heads and concentrate on recreating some of their great play from the final for the game against Watford.

Sitting a point behind Watford, Southampton are 8 points above the relegation zone in 13th place, but having dropped out of every other competition they will be able to focus everything they have on their league finish; 14 points is an all but impossible gap between them and Everton in the Europa League spots. The EFL fixture brought some confusion to the scheduling, but they will likely have to play Arsenal, Tottenham and United again in the next month or so. Picking up 3 points in this game would be important insulation going into a tough run.

Claude Puel has a few long term injuries to contend with, Matthew Targett, Charlie Austin and Virgil Van Dijk all scheduled to return next month. Jeremy Pied and Alex McCarthy are both lacking match fitness after long absences.

The value

Looking at the head to head stats, there doesn’t seem to be much between the two. The corresponding fixture in August at St Mary’s ended 1:1. Last season saw them draw 0:0 and Southampton win 2:0 at home. You would have to go back to 2008 to see Watford beat Southampton.

Overall, I would be somewhat wary of picking a winner in this game and am instead looking to the goal markets. The last 5 Southampton games have seen over 2.5 goals, and 4/5 of Watford’s last premier league home games have seen both teams score. Bet 365 have BTTS at 19/20, and Bet Victor have Over 2.5 at 13/10, both of which seem to be good value.

Liverpool v Arsenal: Fans Yearn for Return of Past Glories

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

It is a huge match historically with the two teams involved having contested some truly memorable games over the years, not least on the opening day of this season when Liverpool shocked the Gunners with a thrilling 4-3 victory at Emirates Stadium.

Who could forget Michael Thomas’ incredible last gasp winner for Arsenal at Anfield to clinch the title on goal difference from Liverpool back in 1989? Or Michael Owen’s late double to win the FA Cup for the Reds back in 2001? How about Andrey Arshavin’s stunning individual four goal salvo in a thrilling 4-4 draw at Anfield back in 2009?

The teams have certainly created some wonderful memories for the fans in recent times, but this coming Saturday’s clash isn’t a battle for the title as it was on that breathtaking night back in May 1989. It is instead a battle for a top four finish, and even that isn’t guaranteed with both clubs facing stern competition from Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester’s City and United, not to mention title shoe-ins, Chelsea. Arsenal is currently as short as 8/11 with BetVictor to finish in the Champions League qualifying places, while Liverpool is longer odds at 11/10 to secure that all-important lucrative top four finish.

Title Dreams Must Wait Another Year At Least

It’s now 27 long years since Liverpool were last crowned champions of England. Reds supporters have had to watch in anguish as Sir Alex Ferguson’s United overhauled their English record of 18 titles before his retirement in 2013. Arsenal too has been suffering something of a title drought of late. Just ask their increasingly disgruntled fans, whose patience with long-serving manager Arsène Wenger is starting to wear thin.

While Liverpool supporters have had to get used to no longer being the kings of England and Europe they once were in the 70s and 80s and are undoubtedly concerned with their club’s tepid start to 2017, they are willing to give manager Jürgen Klopp time to build a squad to implement his ideas and tactics.

Arsenal’s last title triumph came back in 2004, courtesy of The Invincibles vintage. It has been an agonising wait for another title for the club’s supporters and one which shows little sign of ending soon. They have become used to hearing lines about paying off the stadium as excuses for not spending the big bucks and have grown tired of being labelled as happy with a top four finish and Champions League qualification.

Top Four The Only Target

Arsenal currently lies fourth in the table, 14 points adrift of leaders Chelsea, while Liverpool is a further place and point behind following their capitulation to reigning champions Leicester on Monday evening. Having played a match more than their North London opponents too, Saturday evening’s clash at Anfield is a must win for Klopp’s men and Boyle Sports price them at 23/20 to do just that. Arsenal meanwhile, who are almost certainly out of the Champions League following their crushing 5-1 first leg defeat at Bayern Munich, have only the FA Cup and a top-four position to play for. Bet365 among others quote them as long as 13/5 to inflict only a second home league defeat upon their hosts.

In the last eight league meetings between the two teams, 30 goals have been plundered while this season alone they have conceded 61 goals between them whilst burying 109 goals at the right end of the park. With both defences looking leaky, to say the least with an emphasis seemingly more on a ‘we’ll score more goals than you‘ philosophy, goals look assured this weekend and you can get a tempting 2/1 on there being over 3.5 match goals with William Hill.

The first goalscorer markets as always provide great profit possibilities with Sadio Mané, top goalscorer for the Reds with 11 and his Arsenal counterpart Alexis Sánchez, who has 17 goals to his name thus far, both a massive 6/1 with bookmakers including Ladbrokes and Coral to notch that all-important first goal.

Saturday evening’s match should provide great entertainment based on previous encounters between the two teams. It will also give a strong indication as to which of the two giants of English football will achieve a Champions League qualifying berth next season.

Pick Your Guineas As 3yos Feature In Sydney And Melbourne

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If ever a reminder was required that Australian racing comprises a group of state jurisdictions that display an almost complete unwillingness to work together, let us present the highlights of Saturday’s thoroughbred program. In Sydney, we have the G1 $1,000,000 Girvan Waugh Randwick Guineas for the 3yos over 16000m. In Melbourne, Flemington will host the G1 $750,000 Australian Guineas for the 3yos over 1600m. Yep, a pair of G1 miles for the 3yos on the same day! Mother Nature is having her say on this bizarre scheduling conflict with soaking rain threatening the Randwick card while Melbourne is experiencing a glorious streak of early autumn sunshine. If the wet weather continues, the Randwick program could easily be postponed as the track is already saturated.
Echo Effect to Make a Splash

Let’s start in Sydney for the first leg of the Sydney autumn three-year-old Triple Crown (along with the Rosehill Guineas at 2000m and ATC Australian Derby over 2400m). The race originated in 1925 and was run as the Canterbury Guineas over 1900m until 2005 when it was renamed the Randwick Guineas and shortened to 1600m. A field of 14 has accepted for this year’s renewal, although scratchings are almost certain. Despite the presence of a pair of very handy types – Man From Uncle and Comin’ Through, #4 Echo Effect looks a huge danger ($9.50 with bet365). Kristen Buchanan’s gelding is only proven wet tracker in the race (2:2-0-0) and was just nailed on the line in the G2 Hobartville (1400m) at Rosehill two weeks ago.

Kiwi Newcomer Could Pinch WFA Sprint

The first of the G1s at Randwick is the fifth of the day – the Canterbury BMW Stakes at weight for age over 1300m. First run in 1929, it’s now being held at a third different venue (Canterbury, Rosehill and now Randwick). Five of the eight runners are priced at $10 or better with Chautauqua a $2.70 favourite as he chases a sixth G1 win. The superstar grey is winless in his past four while 10 of his 12 wins have been on good going. Currently at $9 with William Hill, #7 Ugo Foscolo is the value runner. The 3yo gelding gets weight relief over the leading fancies as he aims to make it six wins from seven career starts. Now with Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott, he trialled arrogantly at Warwick Farm on February 20.

Huge Field to Contest Flemington Feature

Rain won’t be an issue at Flemington on Saturday where the mercury will be in the mid-20s for the Australian Guineas meeting. A capacity field of 16 is virtually assured with James Cummings’ top rater Prized Icon accepting here in preference to a soggy Randwick. Hey Doc is the $4 favourite with Sportsbet thanks to his solid win in the G3 C.S. Hayes (1400m) here two weeks ago. Just five of the 19 acceptors are priced north of $20 so there’s value galore. An outside draw in such a big field is a big knock, while several runners have yet to be tested over a mile. The four runners that tick more boxes than most are 2016 VRC Derby winner #1 Prized Icon, 2016 Caulfield Guineas victor #2 Divine Prophet, #4 Hey Doc and our pick, #14 Harlow Gold. Fillies bat above their weight in this race, and the Lindsay Park runner rates well below an $18 chance.

World’s Best Take on Tricky Tree-Lined Track in WGC

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Regular readers of our weekly golf preview will have noticed we achieved our second win of the season last week after correctly tipping Rickie Fowler to win the Honda Classic. While the prediction didn’t exactly involve us sticking our neck outs, it did feature three other players that finished in the top 25. Further reinforcing that the players highlighted below are not only great tips for the win, but also other bets on top 10s and top 25s when available.

With that in mind, here’s who we’re looking at this week:

The Course

For once, a course hosting a WGC has some truly unique characteristics. Club de Golf Chapultepec, in the mountains of Mexico City, offers challenges in altitude, unfamiliar greens and plenty of trees. The trees are probably the most talked about feature of the course ahead of this week’s World Golf Championship event.

The retro tree-lined layout isn’t long, but most of the pros are going to have to leave the driver in the bag as they navigate their way through the trees. The course is officially listed at 7,330 yards, however, when considering the appreciable distance a course at altitude can add to distances achieved, it is likely to play closer to 6000-6500 yards.

The course, which has been used in the past to host the Mexico Open (only one player in the field, Robert Diaz, played in the last edition of that event in 2014), will provide plenty of birdie opportunities if the players can keep it away from the impenetrably thick trees and out of the rough (despite the rough only being at 2inches). Expect to see lots of 2-irons and other safety players from the World’s best.

The Defending Champion

Adam Scott won the event, then hosted at Doral, by beating third-round leader Rory McIlroy in a rollercoaster final round. Scott had won the week before in the Honda Classic, surviving a quadruple bogey on Saturday to remind the Tour he’s good no matter what sort of putter he uses (this was shortly after the anchored putter ban).

At Doral, Scott started the day three shots back of Rory, hit two balls in the water, made two double bogeys, and still won. Another great escape effort that saw him become only the second player to win back to back titles on the Florida Swing (the other, Tiger Woods). Those early bogeys put him six behind after six holes, but the Australian played his final 13 holes in six under par to outclass the field.

He’s at $26 to defend this week, but we think he’s better suited to a top 10 bet.

The Contenders*

Dustin Johnson $7.50

This is the first time Johnson tees up as the World number one. Johnson’s imperious driver won’t get much of a workout but it might not matter. He ranks third on Tour for greens-in-regulation (GIR) and while some of that is down to hitting wedge into every green, it also points to a deadly accurate iron game no matter what the club. Reports suggest he’s hit the 2-iron well here during the practice rounds. Won three WGCs.

Jordan Spieth $9

Leading the Tour in GIR and posting top 10s all over the place. His worldwide streak of five in a row ended with a tie for 22nd at Riviera, however, he still looks ominous on a course that won’t see his lack of length disadvantage him.

Rickie Fowler $21

Coming off a win at the Honda Classic, Rickie is in hot form. Leads the PGA Tour in bogey avoidance, which isn’t a stat that comes into play on a course that will give up a lot of birdies, but outlines his how pure ball striking ability and impressive short game. An okay record at altitude, with a tie for 4th at the 2014 BMW Championship.

Henrik Stenson $13

A beautiful iron manipulator, Stenson’s struggled with injury woes but is still stringing together performances wherever he plays, including finishing second in his last tournament in Dubai. Four WGC top 5s, no wins.

Jon Rahm $29

A debutante this week in WGC events who won’t be phased by the calibre of the field. Coming off a win at Torrey Pines and a T16 at the Waste Management and T5 at Pebble Beach. Priced attractively.

Tyrell Hatton $51

Hatton continues to post top-10s like they’re going out of fashion. After contending at nearly every event on the European Tour, Hatton ventured over to the Honda Classic at PGA National and finished 4th. Featured in the final group with Fowler, but let his best golf get away from him. Would’ve taken lots away from it, including a huge injection of belief.

Francesco Molinari $67

Our outsider for the week is the Italian maestro, Francesco Molinari. Often out-powered by the bigger hitters, he thrives on smaller setups where straight is required and could surprise this week. Won the 2010 WGC in Shanghai and finished 3rd at the 2011 WGC-Cadillac event.

*Odds from Sportsbet.

The Winner

This is tricky when the World’s top 50 are all available and the odds are accordingly low. We’ll take a punt on Hatton in a bid to go back to back on correct predictions.

Can United Surge into the Top Four?

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Manchester United certainly seem to be picking up momentum. Their recent unbeaten run seems to prove that. While they could have played better in the EFL Cup final on Sunday, a trophy will certainly have boosted confidence at Old Trafford. Roy Keane has recently commented on how he feels United haven’t made progress from last season. This is clearly wrong and is probably biased based on his bitter departure from the club.

United look well placed to reach the top four. Liverpool is looking like a team low in confidence. Their 3-1 loss at Leicester opens the door for United to move above them. United are only 2pts behind Arsenal. Apart from Chelsea, it is clear that United are playing the best football in the league at the moment.

Bournemouth are in Trouble

United host Bournemouth on Saturday in what looks like an easy three points for the Reds. Eddie Howe has got a big job on his hands to try to arrest the slide that his team have suffered in recent weeks. Bournemouth is now only 4pts above the drop zone. Recent good results for the bottom clubs have closed the gap on them even more.

Bournemouth was very poor in their 6-3 thrashing at Everton. They are still awaiting their first win of 2017. The rot seemed to set in when they capitulated from a 3-0 lead at home to Arsenal to draw 3-3. That result came on the 3rd of January and they haven’t played well since.

These are clearly troubled times and Bournemouth badly needs to start winning soon. That is unlikely to happen as Jose Mourinho now has further trophies in his sight as well as getting into the top four. Ibrahimovic and Pogba are really starting to play well and United look like a really fluent team. It is going to take either a very good side or a very lucky side to beat United at the moment.

Finding the Best Value Bets

The basic fact is that United are highly likely to win this match. Bournemouth is woeful at the moment. The odds of 1-4 for a United victory from SkyBet don’t really fire the imagination. Neither does picking up a string of losing bets backing the draw or Bournemouth to cause an upset.

The value seems to be in finding alternate bets. BetFred is a best-priced 4-5 for United to be ahead at half time and full time. This is by far the best value of all the bets that are on offer. Jose Mourinho will expect and demand a reaction from their EFL Cup final win where United was mediocre for large periods of the game. That is likely to happen against Eddie Howes’ boys and expect United to start quickly and on the front foot.

NBA betting: Philadelphia 76ers and Houston Rockets killing the spreads

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The Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers are once again leading their respective NBA conference tables by some distance, but when it comes to spread betting they are way down the list. The all-conquering Warriors are sitting pretty on 49-9, but they are a mere 28-26-2 against the spread, so if you backed them to cover the spread every week you would be down overall. The Cavs are 40-17 atop the Eastern Conference, but have fared even worse against the spread: LeBron James and co are 26-27-2. So which teams have made their backers the most money, and which have fared the worst?

Top Teams for Spread Betting

An unlikely champion has emerged when it comes to defying the spread so far his season. The Philadelphia 76ers are 22-36 this season and 13th out of 15 teams in the Eastern Conference, with virtually no chance of reaching the playoffs. But they are faring far better than they did last season when they slumped to a dismal 10-76. Having already doubled last season’s win total with a promising young team led by Rookie of the Year favourite Joel Embiid, the 76ers have consistently defied bookmakers’ expectations. They are 35-21-1 against the spread this season, so if you had been backing them throughout you would have made a nice profit. In the Western Conference, the Houston Rockets are the best team against the spread, with a record of 33-25. That is not a huge margin, which shows just how canny the oddsmakers are when setting spreads.

Worst Teams

If you have been regularly backing the Portland Trail Blazers or the Milwaukee Bucks to cover the spread this season, you will be cursing your decisions. Both teams have covered the spread just 22 times, the worst records in the league. Backing the Cavs and Warriors on the road would have hurt you too as Cleveland is 11-15 on the road, while Golden State is 13-15-1.

Futures Update

The Eastern Conference looks like turning into a three-way fight between the Cavs, the Washington Wizards and the Boston Celtics. They are the top three teams in the conference and are heading towards securing the top three seeded places as they are in the best form right now: the Cavs and Wizards are 8-2 in their last 10, while the Celtics are 7-3. The bookmakers expect the Cavs to cruise to another conference win and William Hill has made Cleveland the 4/11 favourite. The odds have been pushed out, however, thanks to the form of the Celtics, the Wizards and the Toronto Raptors. The Celtics are 7/1 second favourites, but Boston’s refusal to dip into its war chest before the trade deadline could hurt it, while two straight defeats do not inspire confidence. The Raptors are 10/1 with William Hill, Bet Victor and Ladbrokes, but a better bet could be the Wizards at 12/1 with Boyle Sports. After the Warriors, they have the league’s best record in 2017 and bolstered their bench with Bojan Bogdanovic.

Covering the Cavs at 4/11 and Wizards at 12/1 could pay dividends. The Warriors are likely to run away with the Western Conference once again and are just 3/10 with Sky Bet. The Spurs have been in excellent form and the Rockets are on a roll, but the Warriors just look too strong now. Still, the Warriors’ James Harden should be named regular season MVP (10/11 with Paddy Power), which would be a good consolation prize for The Beard.

Upcoming Games

The 76ers are in action on Tuesday, when they host the Warriors in Philly. They are 9/1 underdogs with Betfred and Paddy Power, while Stephen Curry and co are just 1/20. But spread betting is where it really gets interesting. At Paddy Power, you can get 10/11 on the 76ers +13.5 and – given that Philadelphia is the best at covering spreads this season and Golden State is poor at doing so on the road – that looks a good bet. Two in-form teams meet in Boston on the same day when the Hawks play the Celtics, and Boston should win that at 20/37 with Bet365.