Series Sweep Beckons for Plucky Sri Lankans

Wednesday’s T20 series finale between Australia and Sri Lanka was always in the spotlight. When the futures cricket schedule was shunned in favour of the big three proposition (a model that is now defunct) criticisms over the amount of cricket the big three (India, England, Australia) would play were rife.

To put the criticism in context, Australia plays a test in India on the day after the third T20 game.

The criticism is valid, but because of the performance from Sri Lanka in winning the opening two games, the focus on Adelaide is entirely different. Now, it’s Australia desperate to avoid an embarrassing whitewash on home soil.

The Series So Far

Sri Lanka won the series opener at the MCG, taking four off the final ball of the game to win a low scorer.

In Geelong for game two, Australia mustered 173 (about 10-15 runs short of where they should’ve been) which was again hauled down from the final ball of the innings. The incredible run chase was completed by the uber-impressive Asela Gunaratne who made 84 not out from 46 balls in a one-man show. The cheeky (in batsmanship not in personality) never panicked as his team mates lost their heads and remarkably, took 48 from the final three overs to see his side home by two wickets.

With the win, Sri Lanka secure their third successive T20 series win in Australia.

The Teams

Australia (from):

Aaron Finch (capt), Michael Klinger, Travis Head, Ben Dunk, Moises Henriques, Ashton Turner, Tim Paine (wk), James Faulkner, Pat Cummins, Adam Zampa, Andrew Tye, Jhye Richardson, Billy Stanlake.

Ben Dunk and Jhye Richardson got their chance in Geelong instead of Adam Zampa and Billy Stanlake so there’s a good chance rotation plays a part in the selection thinking here too. Dunk helped Australia chase the momentum of the innings and probably did enough to retain his place.

Sri Lanka (from):

Upal Tharanga (c), Niroshan Dickwella, Asela Gunarathna, Dilshan Munaweera, Kusal Mendis, Milinda Siriwardena, Sachith Pathirana, Chamara Kapugedara, Seekuge Prassanna, Nuan Kulaskera, Isuru Udana, Dasun Chanaka, Lakshan Sandakan, Lasith Malinga, Vikum Sanjaya.Captain

With a series win in the bag, it might be tempting for the selectors to make some changes, but I don’t think they’ll win. The prospect of a series whitewash should outweigh any desire to rest players in the final game of a tour.

The Key Players

Australia

Moses Henriques may have bowled the over that allowed Sri Lanka to claw back into the game – the 18th of the innings; it went for 22. However, he also ensured Australia had a decent total to defend with an exceptionally well made half century. Henriques, with the added responsibility of batting four, was impressive in his 56 not out from 37 balls, finally showing promise in national colours after some horror outings in the past. Look for him to again be the mainstay of the batting effort, but perhaps not bowling crunch over at the death.

Sri Lanka

It’s hard not to preview anyone other than the amazing little right-hander that has set the series alight. Gunarathna has made (and averaged) 136 runs in the two games at a strike rate of 163. Aaron Finch described him as being incredibly difficult to bowl to, and that’s exactly how it has transpired in both games of the series. Gunarathna will now chase Virat Kohli’s record of 199 runs in a three-match T20 series – he needs 64 to beat Kohli’s current best aggregate.

The Match Odds*

Australia – $1.52

Sri Lanka – $2.53

*Odds from Bet365.

The Prediction

Each match in the series has seen Sri Lanka’s odds shorten ahead of the game. From $4.10 to win the first game, $2.87 to win Sunday’s second game, to the current $2.53 it has been a sensational series win against all predictions. We were wrong too, picking Australia in both the opening two games. We’re not making that mistake again. Sri Lanka to sweep it with a 3 wicket or 6 run win.

The Best Bets

We’re all in on Gunarathna to top score. He’s paying $6 to top score for the third straight game.

Henriques who has looked the most accomplished of the Australian side is paying the same. At $6 that’s attractive for a number four batsman who should spend lots of time in the middle. Ben Dunk is your other nicely priced option at $5.

Black Caps Desperate to Break Protea’s 12 Game Winning Streak

South Africa have started their tour of New Zealand in the same way they’ve played their last 12 ODI games – by winning. After beating Australia 5-0 and then Sri Lanka 5-0 (both at home), the South Africans have showcased their self-belief, a trait AB de Villiers has said is at the highest level he has seen in his 13 years around the squad, by beating the Black Caps in both the one-off T20 game the ODI opener.

The series now heads to Christchurch on Wednesday, we preview the action below:

The Series So Far

The ODI series opener in Hamilton was a rain-shortened affair that ended with the same result as the Twenty20 game just two days earlier. However, the manner of the South African victory was a lot different.

In a game that went right down to the wire, South Africa snuck a win by three wickets after successfully chasing 208 in 34 overs. AB de Villiers guided the chase home, scoring a composed 37 not out from 32 balls, but was terrifically supported by Andile Phehlukwayo (29 off 23).

In truth, South Africa bossed the game for a lot of it. They had NZ in trouble early at 108-5 before Tim Southee and Colin de Grandhomme added an unbeaten 51 (from about four overs) to drag the Black Caps to 207. South Africa looked in total control at 88-0, but lost clusters of wickets to the slow bowlers and fast bowlers imitating slow bowlers, to the point where they required 22 off the final two overs.

The Teams

South Africa (from)

AB de Villiers (capt), Faf du Plessis, Hashim Amla, Farhaan Behardien, Quinton de Kock (wk), JP Duminy, Imran Tahir, David Miller, Chris Morris, Wayne Parnell, Dane Paterson, Andile Phehlukwayo, Dwaine Pretorius, Kagiso Rabada, Tabraiz Shamsi.

South Africa have a few choices to make. Farhaan Behardien is woefully out of form and could be replaced by David Miller. Tabraiz Shamsi might also miss out with Wayne Parnell and Dane Paterson the options to replace him.

New Zealand (from)

Kane Williamson (capt), Trent Boult, Neil Broom, Lockie Ferguson, Colin de Grandhomme, Dean Brownlie, Matt Henry, Tom Latham, James Neesham, Luke Ronchi, Mitchell Santner, Tim Southee, Ish Sodhi, Ross Taylor.

The only change NZ may consider is using Lockie Ferguson rather than Ish Sodhi on the quicker surface, unless they’re brave enough to drop the underperforming Tim Southee too.

The Key Players

South Africa

Kagiso Rabada is one of the premium up and coming quicks on the international circuit. Although, it might be unkind to call him up and coming considering he’s already announced himself with big performances against England (13-144), Australia (5-92) and Sri Lanka (10-92) over the past two seasons. Rabada can bowl quickly for long spells with devastating accuracy, a combination that is deadly in the test game, but equally useful in the ODI game – as his debut figures (the best of any debutant) of 6-16, including a hat-trick, against Bangladesh attest to. We’re predicting Rabada to have a big impact here in game two.

New Zealand

Tom Latham could be about to become New Zealand’s number one wicketkeeper in the one day game given that the selectors are stuck between not liking the form or incumbent, Luke Ronchi, and not trusting the ability of newcomer, Tom Blundell. Ronchi’s 35 and horribly out of form. It’s understandable if they part ways with him. But will Hesson go for Latham, an established batsman in the test and one-day game or Blundell, a very accomplished player in his own right. It seems they’re leaning towards Latham for the balance he offers the side, but he must contribute more with the bat than the zero he made in Hamilton.

The Match Odds*

South Africa – $1.32

New Zealand – $2.60

*All odds from Sportsbet.

The Prediction

South Africa are now unbeaten in their last 12 ODIs. It’s an unbelievable record that will be very tricky for the Black Caps to break. Despite the drama of Hamilton, we’re picking South Africa to shade game 2 as well. South Africa by five wickets or 40 runs.

The Best Bets

Kane Williamson looked a class above his compatriots on the tacky Hamilton surface that de Villiers described as one of the toughest he’s played on. He’ll be a good chance at top scoring at $3.75, but also consider Dean Brownlie, Martin Guptill’s replacement who plays brilliantly off the back foot and will benefit from the added bounce at Hagley.

Australia Facing Prospect of Series Upset in Geelong Twenty20

While the stars of the Australian cricket landscape were plundering runs against the India A side ahead of their test series, the second stringers (and unkind but convenient title in this case) lost a tight Twenty20 match against Sri Lanka in Melbourne. The contrast highlights the intricacies of cricket scheduling but also proves that the Sri Lankans are a real chance to take a rare series win on Australian soil.

The Series So Far

A final call boundary from the bat of Chamara Kapugedera saw Sri Lanka get over the line at the MCG. Chasing a middling 169 to win, contributions from Dickwella, Gunaratne and Munaweera were enough for Sri Lanka to sneak home against the makeshift Australian outfit.

Australia’s 168 was built around Aaron Finch’s 43, Michael Klinger 38 and Travis Head’s 31, but ultimately lacked a decisive innings that took the game by the scruff of the neck. The smaller Geelong venue for Sunday’s game might be conducive to bigger scores and more sixes (there were just five in the game on Friday).

The Teams

Australia (from):

Aaron Finch (capt), Michael Klinger, Travis Head, Ben Dunk, Moises Henriques, Ashton Turner, Tim Paine (wk), James Faulkner, Pat Cummins, Adam Zampa, Andrew Tye, Jhye Richardson, Billy Stanlake.

Ben Dunk and Jhye Richardson didn’t play in Melbourne so could be in line for a game, however, if Australia prefers that the same squad atone for their own efforts, there might not be changes.

Sri Lanka (from):

Upal Tharanga (c), Niroshan Dickwella, Asela Gunarathna, Dilshan Munaweera, Kusal Mendis, Milinda Siriwardena, Sachith Pathirana, Chamara Kapugedara, Seekuge Prassanna, Nuan Kulaskera, Isuru Udana, Dasun Chanaka, Lakshan Sandakan, Lasith Malinga, Vikum Sanjaya.Captain

Sri Lanka came through the series opener unscathed; they are unlikely to make changes aside from potentially resting Malinga and managing his comeback workloads.

The Key Players

Australia

Discarded then recalled captain Aaron Finch is the most experienced member of the Australian side and is therefore expected to lead the side diligently and score the bulk of their runs. With 29 matches under his belt he’s played significantly more cricket than his peers and needs to turn the 40-odd he made in Melbourne into a sixty or seventy; a score that will get Australia closer to 180 / 190. That said the signs were promising in game one.

Sri Lanka

Malinga has still got it. The biomechanics exception was back to his death bowling best on Friday night; slinging down four overs for just 29 runs as well as picking up two wickets. The left armer will be pleased with his return from a serious knee injury and he’ll be especially pleased with the way he was used by his captain – short bursts with both old and new ball. He’ll be dangerous again tomorrow night. Hopefully, he’s not rested.

The Match Odds*

Australia – $1.40

Sri Lanka – $2.87

*Odds from Bet365.

The Prediction

An inexperienced Australian side is an interesting beast. On one hand, they’re Australian and they’ll bounce back strongly from the loss at their home of cricket, but the other hand says, they’re still just a raw side; playing a team that has now won three out of their last four games in the format. The bookies have given them more of a chance in game two, but the home side is still the favourites – we’ll go with them too because we want a series decider.

The Best Bets

As a cricketer, Travis Head makes a lot of starts. He very rarely falls for scores of less than ten. As an example, in his last 11 innings’ in ODI cricket he has failed to pass 24 just once. In amongst those scores are four 50s and one hundred. Find a market that predicts Head will fail and bet against it or take the $4.33 at Bet365 on offer for him to top score.

Black Caps Head to Hamilton Needing to Improve

New Zealand’s unbeaten home summer of cricket came to an end in spectacular fashion last night. The Black Caps were trounced by the visiting South Africans in the series opening Twenty20 game held at an Eden Park ground that was as bleak as the Black Caps performance was.

The 78-run thrashing (albeit expected given South Africa’s superior T20 history) sets up an exciting five match series beginning at Seddon Park in Hamilton. We preview the series opener below:

The Last Time These Two Met

The Black Caps toured South Africa in August 2015 and lost the ODI series 2-1. With the series to play for in Durban in the final ODI, New Zealand faltered badly to be all out for 221 chasing 284. The loss compounded a tough series for the New Zealand side and a tough initiation for new captain Kane Williamson. This came after New Zealand’s clutch World Cup semi-final win at Eden Park

More recently, the teams competed in a series-opening Twenty20 match at Eden Park on Friday night. The tourists completely dominated the Black Caps in all facets of the game to set an ominous tone for the series.

The Teams

South Africa (from)

AB de Villiers (capt), Faf du Plessis, Hashim Amla, Farhaan Behardien, Quinton de Kock (wk), JP Duminy, Imran Tahir, David Miller, Chris Morris, Wayne Parnell, Dane Paterson, Andile Phehlukwayo, Dwaine Pretorius, Kagiso Rabada, Tabraiz Shamsi

Most of South Africa’s stars made contributions to the win on Friday night in Auckland. Particularly impressive were Chris Morris and Andile Phehlukwayo who may not have been automatic selections for the ODI games, but who would have done their selection chances no harm.

New Zealand (from)

Kane Williamson (capt), Trent Boult, Neil Broom, Lockie Ferguson, Colin de Grandhomme, Dean Brownlie, Matt Henry, Tom Latham, James Neesham, Luke Ronchi, Mitchell Santner, Tim Southee, Ish Sodhi, Ross Taylor.

Ross Taylor and Neil Broom are important additions to the ODI squad. The Black Caps middle order woes have been exposed in a few formats this year (and in the one-off T20 game), and the experienced pair will significantly strengthen the side. Dean Brownie will open the batting; in for the injured Martin Guptill. While Ish Sodhi is another spin option and might come into the equations in Hamilton, a ground he’s performed well at in the past.

The Key Players

South Africa

The celebratory runs each time he took a wicket may have been a tad over the top, but the praise that Imran Tahir received after his five wicket haul in the T20 was not. Tahir completely outfoxed the New Zealand batsman with his variations (the wrong un-especially effective) to take five wickets and underpin his credentials as the best ODI bowler in the world. The Black Caps worrying inability to pick the leg spinner will have Tahir eyeing up another haul of wickets.

New Zealand

If there was one positive note to come out the T20 loss on Friday night it was the performance of left-arm quick, Trent Boult. Boult’s incredible spell yielded two wickets for just eight runs and will have had IPL teams salivating about the prospect of snapping him up at the player auction tonight. Boult may be back to his best given his form from Friday and his resurgence against Australia in the home portion of the Chappell-Hadlee series.

The Match Odds*

South Africa – $1.61

New Zealand – $2.30

*All odds from Bet365.

The Prediction

South Africa was so impressive in the Twenty20 match at Eden Park that it is difficult to predict anything other than another win. It’s simply too hard to fathom a match where de Kock, Amla, de Villiers or du Plessis all fail – and that’s without even mentioning their bowlers. The Brown / Taylor middle order isn’t enough to offset the Protea’s class. South Africa by three wickets or 40 runs.

The Best Bets

We’ve previously noted Ish Sodhi’s great record at Seddon Park (his 2-31 against Australia last year the highlight) where he plays his domestic cricket. Thus at $5 to be the Top Wicket-taker he’s a nice chance.

If you’re keen to go all in on the leg spinners, Imran Tahir is slightly shorter at $4 but a great chance given his form and current ODI ranking.

Man City vs. Monaco, Falcao and Aguero at the Etihad

Next Tuesday sees high-flying Monaco travel to the Etihad to take on an improving Man City. This is the first time these two sides will come together in Champions League history, and with both sides in fine goal scoring form, the potential is here for a true football spectacle.

Manchester City

City, currently sitting in 2nd place in the Premier League and coming into this game on a strong run of form, 6 wins out of 8 with 21 goals, Guardiola is looking to propel the club past the round of 16 for only the second time in the club’s history. Drawing Monaco seems to be a mixed blessing, avoiding a PSG side who put 4 past Barcelona last Tuesday will be preferred, but Monaco is nothing to be scoffed at. The blue half of Manchester will have high expectations, but their hopes could well be dashed.

Much of the current discussion at City is being generated by their forwards. The arrival of Gabriel Jesus has brought to bear the long-term commitment of talisman striker Sergio Aguero, now threatening a summer move to Real Madrid. Amidst the controversy, Jesus quickly found himself with a metatarsal fracture, putting him out of action until May, further complicating the matter. He joins Ilkay Gündogan on the bench, as well as John Stones who is still in recovery from a head injury that has put him out of contention since the end of January.

Monaco

Sitting 3 points clear at the top of Ligue 1, Monaco is in possession of some truly intimidating form. Unbeaten in all competitions in 2017, with 26 goals in only 8 games, Monaco are no lightweight draw for Man City, and could arguably be considered the favourites in this match. Should they get the better of City next Tuesday, and considering PSG’s phenomenal performance against Barca, this could well be the first season a French team has won Europe’s premier competition since Marseilles in 1993.

Radamel Falcao is the in form player to look out for here. Back at Monaco after unsuccessful loan stints at Manchester United and Chelsea, the Colombian has been truly scintillating so far this season. Joint 3rd in the Ligue 1 goal charts with 16, he has 5 in the last 5 games and will be looking to add to that tally against City. Alongside Falcao, Monaco is capable of putting out a dynamic and attack minded midfield, led by playmaker Joao Moutinho. Gabriel Boschilia is their only player out with an injury.

The value

There is no head to head data to look at, as these two haven’t met before, but it is worth noting that Monaco beat Tottenham 2:1 both home and away in the group stages. City, however, with more recent squad experience in the Champions League have already proven to be more capable of winning in Europe than their Premier League rivals.

I would expect this game to follow the Spurs game in a BTTS pattern, with both sides so strong up front: Bet Victor have BTTS at 13/20 and Bet 365 have City to Win and BTTS:Yes at 21/10. BTTS:Yes and Draw could also be a good shout, considering Monaco’s quality, but I would expect the home team to carry it here.

Can Porto Savage the “Old Lady?

Porto has long since been considered to be one of the sleeping giants of European football. They went through a golden period in 2003 and 2004. Under Jose Mourinho, they won the Europa League followed by the Champions League. In fact, that win by Porto in the 2004 Champions League season can be considered to be the last time that any club won the competition that wasn’t on the “rich list” of European clubs.

Porto has twice won Europe’s premier club competition having also won in 1987. As top European clubs became richer, the leading teams left clubs like Porto behind. Juventus are also on the list of teams that were considered to be great once upon a time. They have to go back to 1996 for their last Champions League win.

Can Juve Roll Back the Years?

Juventus are definitely a side to be respected. They reached the 2015 Champions League final and gave the mighty Barcelona a scare before eventually losing 3-1. They travel to Portugal for the first leg of their last 16 tie with Porto. Porto crushed Leicester City 5-0 in their final group game.

Once again this highlights just how strong Porto are when at home. Juventus are clearly the favourites to progress over two legs. They have the advantage of being able to play the second leg at home in Turin.

Many people feel this could be their year. Barcelona appears to be out of the competition after losing 4-0 to Paris St Germain. Some experts remain far from convinced about Bayern Munich even though they demolished Arsenal 5-1. Juventus are one of those teams that could lift the trophy should the big three of Real Madrid, Barcelona and Bayern Munich slip up.

Where is the Value in Portugal?

Juventus, Manchester City, Atletico Madrid and Sevilla are a list of four very dangerous dark horses that could go all the way. Despite this, Juventus seem poor value to travel to Porto with Bet365 offering just 6/5. Considering a draw will be a great result for Juventus or even a 2-1 defeat, this seems like poor value.

Benfica defeated Borussia Dortmund at home 1-0 in what appeared to be a similarly matched Champions League game to this one. Meanwhile, Porto can be backed at 13/5 with BetVictor and this seems like much better value. Porto has always been traditionally strong at home. It has always been their away form that has let them down.