Manchester City vs. Watford: Patchy Form Makes Outcome Uncertain

If Watford can remind Manchester City that this is a Premier League game and not a Champions League clash, they may just have a shot at winning on December 14. Despite being separated by nine points in the league, Watford will not only take confidence from their recent win against Everton but from the fact City seem to have a domestic weakness this season.

On the European scene, Pep Guardiola’s men have looked strong in recent outings. A draw against Mönchengladbach was preceded by a 3-1 win over Barcelona. With nine points and a place in the knockout stages virtually secured, the Sky Blues will be looking to make a solid run after the Christmas break.

A Tale of Two Competitions

However, as can often happen when a club has one eye on Europe, form at home starts to slip, and on December 10 the Premier League favourites lost in dramatic fashion against Leicester City. Within 20 minutes of the start, Leicester not only seemed to roll back the clock to last season’s dominance over City but exposed that their opponent’s defensive frailties. Conceding three to a Leicester side that has struggled to score more than two-a-game this season is enough to make any manager question their tactics and that’s exactly how Guardiola looked on the touchline.

Although his team were able to rally in the second half, a defensive mistake by John Stones allowed Leicester to score a fourth and take the match 4-2. While that loss doesn’t put the Premier League title completely out of reach, it’s fair to say that City’s fingers are now a few inches short of touching the trophy. Indeed, with a seven point gap between City in fourth and Chelsea in first, it would take an impressive run by the Manchester side to turn things around.

Watford Could be a Stepping Stone

Fortunately, step one of that march towards the title could start on Wednesday night. With Watford showing patchy form so far this season, City could easily rebound and make a strong statement when they welcome the London side. However, if you’re expecting this to be a whitewash then you might want to save your money because Watford on the right day could put up a tough fight. Yes, if the same side that lost 6-1 to Liverpool turns up then it will be an easy night for City. But, if the players perform like they did in their 2-1 win over Leicester, then anything could happen.

For those who feel it will be a repeat of the Liverpool game, Sun Bets is currently offering 1/4 on a home win. If, however, you think the gritty, Leicester conquering version of Watford will arrive at the Etihad on Wednesday then 10/1 is your betting line.

Now, if we went from a purely form-based angle this season, betting on a home win is the way to go. In fact, if you’re looking for the best value, taking into account City’s occasional defensive faux pas, 2-1 or 3-1 at 8/1 and 9/1 respectively with William Hill looks to be the way to go.

Who Will Fire First?

What is clear, however, is that Manchester City aren’t firing on all cylinders this season and there’s a chance they may misfire again on December 14. If this does happen, a Watford win is certainly possible, but if we’re being realistic a draw would be the most likely result. 11/2 on a draw with bet365 is one of the better prices out there at the moment and might just be worth a few quid.

By all means, it should be treated as a punt given the likelihood that City will want to rectify Saturday’s embarrassing defeat, but given the way both teams have performed this season, it’s not out of the question. If one comes in on form and the other doesn’t (as has happened a few times this season), then it could easily go either way. But, if you’re looking for a sensible bet that doesn’t go too far against the grain, then City to win looks the most likely outcome this week.

Man United To Ease To A Win At The Palace

PREMIER League strugglers Crystal Palace host in-form Manchester United at Selhurst Park on Wednesday in what will be a repeat of last years Wembley FA Cup final.

On that occasion, United edged a close one 2-1 on a summer’s day last May, and this time around, I really can’t see Palace manager Alan Pardew celebrating with any more infamous dance moves. The visitors look decent value for another win at 1.72 with Betfred.

Palace are struggling big time and they produced yet another awful defensive performance in the 3-3 draw at Hull at the weekend and there really is very little to like about their chances in this one even at the general price of 4/1 on offer with most.

In their last match at Selhurst Park they did produce their best performance of what has been a bitterly disappointing season after a 3-0 win against Southampton, but that was The Eagles only victory in their last NINE and they really could struggle against their more illustrious opponents in this one.

United played very well at the weekend to edge past a good Tottenham side. In recent weeks their performances haven’t been getting the results that they should’ve, and they are set to really give a side a could beating very, very soon and it could be Palace in this one.

Jose Mourinho’s side are now unbeaten in their last eight matches, and despite the loss through injury of recent star man Henrikh Mkhitaryan, they should be far too strong for the home side.

Will Wayne Rooney Return?

With Armenian international Mkhitaryan missing, this could see Mourinho turn to England captain Wayne Rooney who is 6.50 with Bet365 to open the goalscoring, and whoever the “special one” decides to start in South London they are a very confident selection to win and win well.

United will be encouraged that they’ve now kept successive clean sheets for the first time since October, and against a Palace side that is struggling for goals, a United win to nil at 3.00 with BetVictor looks another attractive wager.

Palace is in a middle of a defensive crisis with 21 goals conceded in their last seven matches and a side that can let in FIVE against Swansea and THREE against both Hull and Burnley look certain to really struggle against an in-form United.

I genuinely believe that this could get very, very messy for the home side and I like United to ease to a 3-0 win and really put them in great spirits going into the New Year of making a Champions League push which is available at 15.0 with Bet365.

It looks just a matter of time before Pardew is handed his P45 at Selhurst Park, and when he is relieved of his duties the rumours that I am hearing is that former England manager Roy Hodgson is the number one target; he could be in the hot-seat by the weekend.

2017 World PDC Championship: Will Anderson do the Treble

The biggest event in the darts calendar is almost upon us. The PDC World Championship begins at the Alexandra Pavilion and has a total prize pool of £1.65 million this year. The question is, will anyone stop the two-time reigning champion Gary Anderson from making it a hat-trick of wins? The player in form this year has clearly been the Dutch wizard Michael van Gerwen. The Flying Dutchman has almost been winning tournaments at will and in 2016; very few players have been able to stop him.

Can Anybody Stop Van Gerwen

All of the major bookies have Van Gerwen at odds-on with Paddy Power being 8-11. Despite his massive success this year, that price does seem like poor value. What tends to happen in markets like these is that the price is too low simply based on previous successes and over reaction in the market. The same thing happened with Phil Taylor a few years ago. Taylor lost enough world championships to mean that opposing him at such short odds was a viable strategy.

Michael van Gerwen is by no means a certainty to win this event. He has failed to reach the final of the last two world championships. He did win the world title back in 2014 but has performed poorly by his standards since then. Gary Anderson is second favourite at an interesting 13-2 with BoyleSports. Many people believe that he isn’t in the right form to challenge van Gerwen as he has only picked up one decent title all year outside of retaining the world title in January.

Can Somebody Come Through the Field?

If there is one lesson that we can take from past results in this tournament and it is that outsiders haven’t done too well. It has always been the big established names that have either won it or contested the final. So if you want to pick a winner then staying with the top eight in the world is a sensible policy. Moving away from the big names just seems like wasting money.

Phil Taylor can be backed as high as 11-1 with BoyleSports who also quote the same odds for Peter Wright. Outside of these top four players, the next bunch of players in the betting order are around the 33-1 mark. This is a clear sign that the bookies simply do not rate the rest of the field when it comes to winning the world title.

If you want to find value at the PDC, a one point bet on both Anderson and Van Gerwen will show you a nice profit if Anderson wins and only a small loss should Michael van Gerwen win the event after Christmas. In fact, if you are artful with your staking levels then you will show a profit regardless of which of them wins.

NBA Set for a Christmas Cracker

Reigning champions the Cleveland Cavaliers have been in sensational form over the past week and blew away the Raptors, Heat, Knicks and Hornets in quick succession. The odds on them winning the Eastern Conference have shortened considerably, and they are now just 10/3 to win the NBA Championship. The Golden State Warriors have maintained their strong form, despite a blip against the Grizzlies, and the two still look on course for a showdown in the Championship series. There are plenty of exciting games to look forward to in the week ahead, but already thoughts are turning to Christmas Day, when the Cavs host the Warriors in what could prove to be the game of the season so far, and that could give a strong indication as to who will seize the Championship.

Eastern Conference

Odds on the Cavaliers winning the Eastern Conference have shortened from 13/20 to just 4/9 in a week, thanks to their excellent winning streak. Star man LeBron James continues to break records and in the past week became the first player to ever reach 7,000 career assists along with 27,000 points and 7,000 rebounds. He is an all-around superstar, and teams simply cannot handle him at the moment. As we suggested last week, the Cavaliers destroyed the Knicks and easily covered the spread. They are now just 1/18 to win the Central Division and look good for the Eastern Conference, so it might be worth getting on them sooner rather than later as the odds are only going one way at present.

Western Conference

We tipped the Warriors to easily cover the point spread against the Clippers and they did so, also beating the Pacers, Jazz and Timberwolves, but an 110-89 defeat to the Memphis Grizzlies was a serious blip. The Warriors were sleepwalking through that game and it raises question marks over their mentality going into a crucial part of the season. The odds on them winning the Western Conference have gone out to 2/5 with some bookmakers, as the Spurs are looking good, so now could be the time to back them.

NBA Championship

The Warriors have drifted out to 5/6 with Sky Bet and Bet Victor thanks to the recent form of the Cavs, so now might be a good time to back them if you still think they will do it. They still rank as the best team in the league this season and top the power rankings as the NBA’s top scoring and top shooting team. But the Cavs are building up a head of steam and the odds are likely to continue tumbling on them, so it could also be worth getting on them at 10/3 with Bet Victor now.

Upcoming games

A standout game sees the Warriors take on the Knicks on Friday. After the Cavs destroyed the Knicks, the Warriors will want to put in a similarly emphatic performance to show they are still the dominant force in the NBA, so backing them to cover the spread might be a good idea. Similarly, the Cavs play the Grizzlies and will be keen to beat them to land a psychological blow against the Warriors.

The Warriors blew everyone away to win the NBA Championship two years ago but lost out to Cleveland in the finals last season, and everything looks to be heading for a grudge match between these two in this season’s finals as they are the best teams in the NBA of late. They face off in Cleveland on Christmas Day and it promises to be a thriller. Bookmakers are already offering odds and it is tight, with Paddy Power offering 20/23 on the Cavs and 20/21 on the Warriors. With the way LeBron is playing at the moment, you wouldn’t want to bet against him turning it on in front of his beloved hometown fans, and that 20/23 on the Cavaliers looks tempting.

Sunderland vs. Chelsea: Top vs. Bottom Clash

This midweek fixture sees top place Chelsea travel to the North East looking to extend their winning streak to 10 straight games on the trot. They play a Sunderland team rooted to the bottom of the table with just 11 points from 15 games. Chelsea will be looking to extend their run against a team in dire straits, and Sunderland will be hoping for any advantage in a game many have written off before the whistle has even been blown.

Winning Streak

Chelsea has been flourishing under new manager Antonio Conte. The last time they lost in the League was September 24th against Arsenal, and have only conceded twice since then. It’s starting to look as though Conte is well and truly capable of bringing the same form to London that made his old club Juventus so untouchable in Serie A during the last few seasons. Chelsea is increasingly looking like they will be the team to beat for the title come May, especially with no European campaign to distract them.

It’s certainly hard to see Sunderland getting anything against this Chelsea side. Conte will be able to draw from a squad with few injuries to key players: Terry, Mikel and Oscar are all doubtful, but none of these has been integral to their early successes. Matic made his return against West Brom and will likely start. The manager will be able to field a squad unchanged from Sunday if he chooses to; key men Costa and Hazard may just provide too much of a challenge for Sunderland to deal with.

Can Sunderland turn it around?

On the face of it, this game could be looked at as a typical top vs. bottom. 3 goals in the 2nd half saw the Black Cats washed out in their relegation 6 pointer away against Swansea on Saturday, and David Moyes will know that his team will fall well short of the mark against the League leaders if they can’t make drastic improvements.

However, a closer look at Sunderland’s recent form does show some promise. Going into November saw them absolutely floored at the bottom of the table, with only two points from the first 10 games. Since then, they were able to take 9 points from 5 games, all through wins. This run has seen them pull themselves back up into contention, but whether these results are the signs of an overall shift in form is yet to be seen. The poor weekend results against relegation rivals Swansea was a massive blow and may haunt them later on in the season.

Injuries are another major concern for Moyes, with Cattermole, Rodwell, Watmore and Gooch all ruled out. The squad will see little change from that of Saturday when the hole left in the midfield by these absences was telling. The clubs only real goal scoring threats, Defoe and Anichebe, are both available to play.

Cats vs. Lions

Head to head form suggests slightly better prospects for Sunderland than their current form does. Chelsea’s last visit to the Stadium of Light saw Sunderland win 3:2 in an enthralling encounter last May, a result vital to last season’s survival. Prior to that, they have 1 win and 9 consecutive defeats to the London club at home.

It’s really hard to envision Sunderland taking anything from this game. We will likely see Moyes taking an ultra-defensive approach, as he did against Liverpool at Anfield in November. Couple this with Chelsea’s superb defensive record, it’s hard to see them getting a goal, let alone points on Wednesday. But with Defoe up front, backed by a home crowd, it’s certainly not an impossibility.

Bet 365 have Chelsea to win at 1/3, so it might be worth trying to enhance these odds. Chelsea Win/BTTS No is at 6/5, with this result slightly favoured by the bookies over Chelsea Win/BTTS Yes at 15/8.

If you are keen on a Chelsea clean sheet, it could be worth taking Chelsea 2:0 or even 3:0 at 6/1 and 15/2 on William Hill, add Costa as an anytime goalscorer and you might just have some tasty odds. If you think that Sunderland is capable of an upset, Coral have a draw at 17/4.

Can Arsenal Keep up Their Title Charge?

It has been twelve long barren years for Arsenal when it comes to lifting the Premier League trophy. They haven’t tasted success in the league since 2004. A combination of being outplayed in big games, a lack of consistency and other clubs simply outspending them have contributed to that long period without a league title. Many of the Arsenal fans are unhappy, and they were particularly boisterous after their early season 4-3 loss at home to Liverpool.

Since then, Arsene Wenger has really turned things around. After beating Stoke City 3-1 on Saturday at the Emirates, they are making a strong case to be champions this season. The problem for Arsenal isn’t so much what they do now but how they handle the pressure during the closing stages of the season. Arsenal has flattered to deceive so often that it is hard to put any faith in them when it comes to going all the way. They travel to Goodison Park on Tuesday to play Everton.

The Form Favours Arsenal

Everton under Ronald Koeman has made a decent start to the season with 20pts from their first 15 games. Their recent form isn’t good. They have had successive away defeats in the league to Southampton and Watford. They did draw at home to Manchester United but a home draw to Swansea and a 5-0 hammering at Chelsea appears to have taken its toll on their confidence.

There are no such issues with Arsenal. They are riding high after topping their Champions League group with an impressive 4-1 win away to Basel. There seems to be solidity about Arsenal this season. They have faced some stiff opposition in the form of Paris St Germain, Manchester United, Chelsea and Tottenham and not been beaten in any of those games. It appears that the August loss to Liverpool was nothing more than a blip.

Can Everton Stop the Gunners

It is tough to make a case for Everton even though they are the home team. Clearly, they need to be respected, but their leaky defence shipped three goals at Vicarage Road on Saturday. Everton can be backed at odds of 3-1 with Bet365 which seems tempting. BetVictor quote odds of 14-5 for the draw while William Hill quotes 19-20 for an Arsenal win.

It is tough to see Everton taking three points from this fixture. A team that isn’t in form tends to find it tough to find form again very quickly. The value is in the Arsenal win even at 19-20 but if you want to play it safe then you can possibly place half a point on the draw. Then you win if the game is drawn or Arsenal win.