Category: NFL

Super Bowl Betting: Odds Drift Out on New England Patriots

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Super Bowl is one of the biggest betting events in the calendar and huge sums are already being wagered on it, with forecasts expecting it to be worth more than $5 billion to bookmakers. As the money flies in, the odds are shifting constantly as online betting sites like Sun Bets, Sky Bet, Bet365 and more react to the trends and cover their backs. With the big game rapidly approaching, it is worth examining which way the betting is going before placing your wager.

The majority of NFL fans seem to have decided that the value is on the Atlanta Falcons as the odds on the underdogs have drifted in. A week ago the Falcons were best priced at 7/5 with William Hill but those odds have now shortened to 13/10 as the money has gone on Atlanta. That means you can now typically find better odds on the favourites, the New England Patriots. A week ago they were 20/31 at Bet365 and Ladbrokes but they have now gone out to 4/6. It might not sound a huge difference, as it is going from 1.65 to 1.67 when we render it in a digital odds format, but that 0.02 increase can count for a lot when you consider some of the sums being wagered on this game. The Patriots have been dominant this season and over the past decade with the Bill Bellichick-Tom Brady axis leading them to glory time and time again, and that 4/6 offers fantastic value. But the Falcons are the hottest team in the league right now thanks to an offence that is firing on all cylinders, so it is easy to see why people are backing them and causing the odds to fall.

There is a lot more value to be had on the Patriots when you move into the spread betting market and fans have responded in their droves. Las Vegas has set the spread at Patriots -3 and NFL enthusiasts are lumping on the Pats to cover it. The odds on the Patriots with the spread have plummeted at most bookmakers, but Paddy Power is still offering a generous 21/20, so that looks a great option if you think they can do it. It promises to be a tight game and the Pats should shade it thanks to their superb defence, but New England -3 looks a bit risky. If you’re feeling more cautious, Bet365 has 5/7 on New England -2. Or if you’re feeling supremely confident in New England you can get huge odds of 7/4 on the Patriots -5.5 at Paddy Power. If, on the other hand, you think the Falcons might sneak a win but you are worried they could also fall to a narrow defeat, you can get 10/11 with Sky Bet on Atlanta +3 or 5/8 on Atlanta +5.5 at Bet365.

The other main markets and the wonderful, dizzying array of prop bets are pretty much stagnant at present and are unlikely to shift much if at all in the run-up to the Super Bowl as the serious money goes on the spread and the outrights, while these are more fun novelty options.

Top picks

New England Patriots to win the Super Bowl at 4/6 with Bet365 and Ladbrokes

Atlanta Falcons +5.5 with Bet365

Under 58.5 points in total at 10/11 with Sky Bet, Ladbrokes and various others

Julio Jones to score first touchdown at 8/1 with William Hill, Ladbrokes and various others

Tom Brady to be named Super Bowl MVP at 10/11 with Paddy Power

LeGarette Blount to gain the most rushing yards at 5/4 with Boylesports

No missed extra point at 2/7 with Betfred

No defensive touchdown scored at 4/6 with Bet365

Super Bowl prop bets: the good, the bad, the crazy

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Super Bowl is sure to be one of the biggest betting events of 2017 and NFL fans are by no means restricted to betting on traditional lines like outright winner, point spread and points total. In the buildup to the big game the leading bookmakers compete to offer the weirdest and most wonderful prop bets (special bets) to make headlines and win business. Getting involved can be great fun, but also a good way to waste your money, so here we have rounded up the good, the bad and the crazy from this year’s prop bets:

The Good

The obvious bets are outright winner (the New England Patriots should win it), point spread (the Atlanta Falcons might sneak this as it is forecast to be close) and points totals (under 58.5 looks good thanks to the strength of the Pats’ defence). But a really important prop bet can be added to that mix: Super Bowl MVP. In the last 15 years a quarterback has won it nine times, a wide receiver three times, a wide receiver twice and a safety once. Chances are it will be won by a quarterback again and that pits Tom Brady against Matt Ryan. History is in Brady’s favour as he has already won Super Bowl MVP three times and is a big game player. Matt Ryan is the hottest QB in the league right now, but that might not be enough to stop Brady. He is odds-on favourite at 10/11 with Paddy Power, while Ryan is 15/8 with Sky Bet.

One spanner in the works could be Julio Jones, Atlanta’s beast of a receiver, who looks interesting at 16/1 with William Hill and Bet365. He also looks a good option at 8/1 to score the first touchdown. Another good prop bet is half-time/full-time. If you fancy the Patriots to dominate, you can get 11/8 with Ladbrokes on them winning half-time/full-time, better than the 4/6 available on them winning outright. The 8/9 on New England winning more turnovers looks great too. LaGarette Blount at 4/1 for most rushing yards looks an interesting bet as the Pats will try to grind the Falcons down, and he is another good bet for first touchdown at 8/1 with Bet365.

The Bad

You can get 18/1 on the winner successfully defending the Super Bowl next season, but Brady is ageing and the Falcons probably won’t reach the big game again, so this looks best avoided. The 5/2 on a kicker missing an extra point looks a terrible idea. The 66/1 on someone achieving a Hail Mary looks tempting, but again best avoided, as is the 4/1 on a defensive touchdown being given away and the 13/1 on a kick return touchdown as these defences are too good for that.

The Crazy

Here we go. This year you can bet on: the primary colour of Joe Buck’s tie, the pattern of his tie, the extent of his facial hair, the amount of times Robert Kraft is shown on TV, the likelihood of a halftime sound malfunction, a wardrobe malfunction, Lady Gaga’s outfit, her hair colour and song choice, the visibility of her belly button, someone catching fire at the halftime show, how long the national anthem will take, Gaga getting booed, who will air the first commercial, who will win best commercial, anti-Trump speeches being made, whether a snake will make an appearance and many, many more. Most are fun if you’re only throwing small change on them, but two that could be interesting are: going over the over/under weight (249.5 lbs) of the heaviest player to score a touchdown as Blount is over, and the 7/4 on the first mention of Deflategate being in the first quarter.

Super Bowl contestants’ strengths, weaknesses and recent history analysed

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The countdown is on to Super Bowl LI and the bookmakers have made the New England Patriots clear favourites to beat the Atlanta Falcons. But this should prove to be a ferocious battle between the league’s best offence and its best defence and it really could go either way. It promises to be a great game, and we have compiled some essential information to arm yourself with before placing your wager:

Form

Without a doubt, New England has been the best team in the league this season. They were without Tom Brady for the first four games due to suspension but still went on to finish 14-2 in the regular season. New England simply breezed the playoffs, winning by 18 points in the Divisional Round and 19 points in the Conference Championship. Atlanta won their final four games of the regular season to finish 11-5 and qualify as second seeds to the playoffs. They also annihilated the competition, winning by 16 points and then 23 points despite facing two very tricky opponents.

Strengths

The Falcons have had by far and away the best offence in the league this season. In fact, their regular season offensive record is the eighth best in the history of the NFL, with 33.8 points per game. In the playoffs they kept it going, beating the Seahawks 36-20 and the Packers 44-21. New England has the league’s best defence by a considerable distance. They gave up just 15.6 points per game in the regular season, so it really is a case of unstoppable force meets immovable object.

Weaknesses

Atlanta’s defence has not been great this season. It caused them to lose five games in the regular season, and even when they were winning they were conceding a lot of points and scraping victories thanks to the strength of their offence. But their defensive form improved considerably in the playoffs and they kept two excellent offences relatively quiet. For the Patriots, there are no real weaknesses. Their defence is superb, but so is their offence. The only worry for Pats fans might be the absence of Rob Gronkowski, the record-breaking tight end who misses the game through injury.

Star Players

Leading the charge for New England is Brady, widely accepted as the best quarterback of all time. He has the experience, having led his team to seven Super Bowls, winning three of them, and he has the skill to take this questionable Falcons defence apart. Defensively, Malcolm Butler and Ron Ninkovich will make life extremely difficult for the Falcons. Atlanta’s star is undoubtedly Matt Ryan. He led the Falcons to 580 regular season points, putting them 71 clear of the second best team offensively, the Saints, and he did it with exceptional consistency and stats that lead all QBs in the league this season. But he has a lot of help from Julio Jones, who is arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL and a key part of this offence.

Key clashes

The obvious clash is between the league’s two outstanding QBs. Ryan leads Brady in passing yards, passing touchdowns and pass completion this season, but Brady has that vital experience and has a higher all-time passer rating. The clash that determines it could be Butler v Jones. Butler has shut down many of the league’s best wide receivers this season and if he does a similar job on Jones the Super Bowl is New England’s. This is old hat for Pats coach Bill Belichick, coaching his seventh Super Bowl, and he has great tactical nous, but Falcons coach Dan Quinn will come at him, and that is the best way to take on New England, so it should prove a tremendous tactical battle.

History

What can the history books tell us about who might win this game? While Atlanta is the league’s hottest team right now, the Pats are historically the best team in the business. Belichick and Brady can be trusted in the big games, while there are more question marks over Ryan and Quinn. In four previous games, Brady has never lost to the Falcons, so he goes in with the perfect record. The Pats should win but expect a tight game. The favourite failed to cover the spread in five of Brady-Belichick’s six previous Super Bowls, and if you are looking at spread betting history is with Atlanta (who are -3), as the underdog has covered the spread in 13 of the past 16 Super Bowls.

NFL Super Bowl: Early Lines Make Patriots Favourites

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Super Bowl LI is looming and bookmakers have released early lines on the biggest sporting event in the American calendar. The New England Patriots are early favourites to win it for a fifth time, but face stern competition from the Atlanta Falcons and there is plenty of value to be had for NFL fans ahead of what promises to be a ferocious battle.

Early Lines

Leading bookmakers have made the New England Patriots the favourites and understandably so as they have been the most impressive team in the league this season. They breezed through the regular season with the league’s best record, despite missing QB Tom Brady for the first four games through suspension over the Deflategate fiasco, and have been untroubled in reaching the Super Bowl. They are expected to win it and the prices being touted are pretty good: Bet365, Ladbrokes and Boyle Sports are offering 20/31, Sky Bet, Coral and Betfred have 8/13 and William Hill has 5/8. You can make a healthy margin by jumping on the Patriots if you think they have what it takes. Atlanta is serious underdogs here and William Hill is offering the best price: 7/5 on a win for the Falcons.

Las Vegas has set the point spread at +3 for the Pats (-3 for the Falcons) and many bookmakers, including Bet365, have 10/11 on both outcomes. Sky Bet, Paddy Power and William Hill are all offering 5/6 on the Falcons +3 and even money on New England -3. Vegas expects it to be an exceptionally high-scoring game and has set one of the highest points totals lines in recent memory at 58 points. Sky Bet has the best odds on over 58.5 (evens), while Betfred and William Hill have the best price for under 58.5 (10/11).

Projections

If you take the season averages of the Pats and Falcons, they are on 61 points combined per game. But while the Falcons have the league’s highest scoring offence (and the Pats are not far behind on 27.6 points per game), the Patriots have the best defensive record, having given away just 15.6 points per game in the regular season. The Falcons’ defence has also hit form at just the right time, conceding far fewer points in recent weeks than they did earlier in the season. For that reason, the under 58.5 points looks good with Betfred and William Hill.

It promises to be a fantastic game, with two great offences going up against one another, and solid defences making life difficult for them. In Tom Brady and Matt Ryan, it pits two genuine superstars up against one another. They have been two of the best quarterbacks in the league this season and both deserve a Super Bowl berth. It is likely to be a close game. But when push comes to shove, the Patriots should have just a bit too much offensively for the Falcons and can outscore them.

Brady and co took apart a very strong Steelers defence in such a clinical fashion in the Conference Championship game, and it augurs well going into the Super Bowl for them. Atlanta’s defence has improved in recent weeks but has still been allowing some high points scores (21 against the Packers, 20 against the Seahawks, 32 against the Saints) and New England are better offensively than those teams. The Pats have been superb defensively, giving away just three points against the Broncos and then against the Jets towards the close of the regular season. They will concede more points against a formidable Falcons offence – containing Ryan, Julio Jones, Tevin Coleman and Devont Freeman – but the team with the better defence usually wins the Super Bowl and this year that is New England. Either way, it should prove to be a tight game decided by a slender margin, so it looks better to play New England outright rather than on the spread right now as 20/31 still offers good value.

Patriots to Beat Steelers but Pittsburgh to Beat the Spread

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The New England Patriots have breezed to a record sixth consecutive AFC Championship game and now just the Pittsburgh Steelers stand between them and the Super Bowl. It will be a really tall order for Pittsburgh to win this one as the Pats have looked the best team in the league by some distance this season and are 11/8 favourites to win the Super Bowl (Sky Bet).

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers closed the regular season with seven straight wins to finish 11-5, winning the NFC North and qualifying as third seeds for the playoffs. They destroyed the Miami Dolphins in the Wildcard Round and then went on to face second-seeded Kansas City in the Divisional Round. The Chiefs were favourites and we tipped it to be a very close game but said the Steelers would steal it, and that is exactly what happened as they ran out 18-16 winners in a tense affair. Steelers kicker set a postseason record by scoring six field goals to edge it for Pittsburgh by the slenderest of margins. They go into the championship game as underdogs, but they will be emboldened by their recent form.

New England Patriots

New England has had the clearest run to the championship game than any of the other teams still left in the playoffs. QB Tom Brady was suspended for the first four games of the season over his role in the Deflategate fiasco, but it mattered little as the Pats powered to a 14-2 record, the best in the league. It left them as first seed in the AFC – a valuable position they squandered last season – and they sat out the Wildcard Round before securing an easy home game against the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round.

Houston finished 9-7 and only scraped through thanks to an injury crisis at Oakland, and Brady duly picked them off. New England ran out 34-16 winners, covering the largest point spread in playoff history, as we suggested they would. Patriots RB Dion Lewis looked sensational as he used his lightning pace to become the first player to score on a rush, a catch and a kick return in a postseason game. With him and Brady firing on all cylinders, the Pats look invincible at present.

Projections

The Patriots beat the Steelers 27-16 in October in the regular season, but you should not read too much into that as Pittsburgh were missing QB Ben Roethlisberger, who is now back at full strength, and the Pats were blessed with the talents of star receiver Rob Gronkowski, who is now injured. The Steelers finished the regular season with the 12th best defence and have conceded just 28 points in two playoff games. Offensively they are superb as Roethlisberger has lots of great passing options, which creates gaps of space all over the field. In Le’Veon Bell they also have one of the league’s best RBs, and he has been sensational in the postseason. New England will need to shut him down to have any chance of winning.

The Steelers, meanwhile, will have to do their best to make Brady uncomfortable, as he is on a roll and has proven himself time and time again in the postseason. It looks like being a really close encounter that the Pats should just about shade, so the 5/12 on offer at Paddy Power on a New England win in front of their home crowd looks a decent bet, despite not providing a great deal of value. To get more bang for your buck, you will have to consider spread betting, and then it gets more complicated. It is not hard to imagine the Pats winning this by around three points, so they might not cover the spread and the 7/10 Bet365 has on Pittsburgh +6.5 looks a really good option as they are a competitive, battling team.

Packers v Falcons Looks Set to be a High-scoring Thriller

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

There are just four teams left standing in the NFL playoffs and they are only one game away from the Super Bowl. On Sunday the NFC and AFC champions will be crowned before they go on to meet at Super Bowl LI in Houston, Texas, on February 5. Both conference championship bouts promise to be enthralling contests and first up is the NFC Conference game, which sees the Green Bay Packers travel to the Atlanta Falcons.

Green Bay Packers

The big story of the divisional round was Green Bay’s stunning win on the road against NFC top seeds the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas had by far and away the best record in the NFC and were overwhelming favourites to win the conference. But they came up against a Green Bay side that had become the league’s form team, closing out the regular season with a six-game winning streak to finish 10-6 and qualify for the playoffs as fourth seeds at the top of their division, before thumping the heavily fancied New York Giants 38-13 in the Wildcard Round. Their clash with Dallas was epic, tied at 31-31 with 12 seconds to go when Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers threw a 36-yard pass to Jared Cook, who tapped both feet on the ground before falling out of bounds, leaving Mason Crosby to step up for a 51-yard field goal to seal a 34-31 win. Rodgers played out of his skin, leaving his teammates and the opposition in awe with that final pass. Green Bay will be a formidable opponent for the Falcons on Sunday.

Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta has had a more straightforward route to the conference final. They finished the regular season on 11-6 to end up as second seed and get a bye for the Wildcard Round. They faced a difficult divisional game against the Seahawks but benefited from home advantage – Seattle to Atlanta is a long old trip – and won it comfortably. The 36-20 highlighted the supreme talents of Falcons QB Matt Ryan, and it will be a fascinating clash between him and Rodgers.

Projections

Atlanta will have expected a trip to Dallas to take on the conference favourites, but instead they have home field advantage and host a banged up Green Bay team. It is, however, full of danger and surging with confidence after eight straight wins. It looks set to be a classic. During the regular season, Rodgers and Ryan were ranked one and two for the most touchdown passes, with 40 and 38 respectively, and they are arguably the two most in-form quarterbacks in the NFL at present. These teams met in week eight, when Rodgers and Ryan combined for seven touchdown passes and 534 yards, so it should be a thriller. On that day, the Falcons won 33-32, and it could prove equally close here.

Green Bay are much improved since then and did fantastically well to beat Dallas without Jordy Nelson. But the Falcons are also improving and have the league’s best offence. Both of them are poor defensively and superb in offence, so it should be a high scoring game and the 4/6 Sky Bet is offering on over 57.5 points looks good. If Nelson returns it will provide a great boost for the Packers, but even if he does not get over his injury (cracked ribs) Rodgers has proved that he can throw to anyone and he has the postseason experience to lead the Packers to a victory against the odds.

The Packers are real outsiders here, at 15/8 with Sky Bet and Paddy Power, while the Falcons are 1/2 with Stan James. In all likelihood, it will be a lot closer than that and the Packers could well spring a surprise. If they do lose, it should only be by a slender margin and that makes them look good to cover the spread, so the 5/6 Bet365 is offering on Green Bay +5.5 looks fantastic.