Category: Rugby

England Favourites to WhiteWash Australia; Remain Unbeaten.

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Australia head to Twickenham after a dour performance against Ireland going down 27-24, which also ended their Grand Slam hopes. England looks to extend their winning streak to 13 after closing out Argentina 27-14 in a spiteful match.

England rolled Australia at home 3-0 during the June tour, so there is plenty of incentive for both teams to win and there is no love lost between coaches Eddie Jones and Michael Chieka, who have been at it in the media since June. However, Australia has struggled in 2016, and during this tour faded late into the 2nd half, which was truly evident against France and Ireland. Australia failed to put a patched up Ireland to the sword turning over too much ball in the way of errors and poor protection at the breakdown, and failing to execute backline play.

England remains unbeaten and is willing to win ugly. On top of injuries and suspension, coach Eddie Jones will need to replace battering ram #8 Billy Vunipola, who suffered a knee injury against Argentina. However, most of the team from their last fixture will be available.

Heading into this fixture, England is clear favourites and it’s hard to look past a team playing with confidence and thriving under coach Eddie Jones, who has moulded exciting combinations amongst his squad. Australia will need to front up and ensure someone takes control of the backline if they want to penetrate a rushing English defensive line. This encounter will be one game too much for the Australians; the English should come home easily 16-20 points and will want to make a statement with the upcoming 6 nations.

Teams

England

XV: M Brown; M Yarde; J Joseph, O Farrell; J May; G Ford; B Youngs; M Vunipola; D Hartley (capt); D Cole; C Lawes; G Kruis; C Robshaw;T Wood; N Hughes.

Replacements: J George; J Marler; K Sinckler; C Ewels; T Harrison; D Care; B Te’o; H Slade.

Australia

XV: Israel Folau; Sefanaia Naivalu; Tevita Kuridrani; Reece Hodge; Dane Haylett-Petty; Bernard Foley; Nick Phipps; Lopeti Timani; Michael Hooper; David Pocock; Rob Simmons; Kane Douglas; Sekope Kepu; Stephen Moore (capt); Scott Sio.

Reserves: Tolu Latu; James Slipper; Tom Robertson; Dean Mumm; Sean McMahon; Nick Frisby; Quade Cooper; Henry Speight.

Odds

Australia: $4.00 at Betfair.

England: $1.29 at Unibet.

Prediction

It’s an old fashioned head and heart dilemma this week. The $4 is such a tempting prospect for a heart longing for a nice betting win, and to see England’s unbeaten run end. But the head says this is an England team that beat Australia 3-0 in June and should be too strong. Okay, you’re right head, England to remain unbeaten against Australia this year.

Australia Firm Favourites to Wrestle Back Four Nations

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Major sporting tournaments aren’t usually hyped up with words like, “consistency”, “structure” and “control”, but in the case of the Four Nations rugby league final featuring New Zealand and Australia this weekend, they’re the words that accurately describe the qualities of the final’s favourites.

The Kangaroos are the overwhelming favourites to win Sunday’s final at Anfield because of their mastery in sucking the life out of opposition teams and forcing them into capitulating errors. It’s a formula that has served them well in all three of their round-robin games in the tournament thus far, and a structure that fellow finalists, New Zealand, have struggled to adjust to in their previous four meetings.

With the best completion rate of the tournament, the fewest errors made and the most experience playmaking spine imaginable, the Kangaroos should get the better of the undermanned Kiwis. Let’s look at the key talking points that reinforce their favouritism:

Teams

Australia: Darius Boyd, Blake Ferguson, Greg Inglis, Josh Dugan, Valentine Holmes, Johnathan Thurston, Cooper Cronk, Matt Scott, Cameron Smith (c), Aaron Woods, Boyd Cordner, Matt Gillett, Trent Merrin, Michael Morgan, David Klemmer, Tyson Frizell, Shannon Boyd, Jake Trbojevic, Justin O’Neill.

New Zealand: Adam Blair, Jesse Bromwich (c), Lewis Brown, Greg Eastwood, James Fisher-Harris, David Fusitu’a, Tohu Harris, Shaun Johnson, Jordan Kahu, Solomone Kata, Shaun Kenny-Dowall, Issac Luke, Te Maire Martin, Manu Ma’u, Kevin Proctor, Jordan Rapana, Joseph Tapine, Jason Taumalolo, Martin Taupau.

Team Selection Talking Points

Australia: Sam Thaiday’s absence will be felt by the Australia forward pack. On a playing field that’s been reduced by 9 metres – a move that is expected to create a game dominated by forwards – Australia have opted for Jake Trobojevic and Boyd Cordner to replace the big man. Although there could be changes once the teams actually run out.

New Zealand: David Kidwell is keeping people guessing, but Tohu Harris is expected to race to replace Thomas Leuluai at standoff. The thinking must be that the defensive edge and big game experience that he brings to the team is more favourable than the flair but inexperience of six game NRL Penrith player Te Maire Martin.

Form

Australia: The pre-tournament favourites have looked imperious in the tournament thus far. After rolling Scotland, resting some of their stars and still holding out the Kiwis and turning in a dominant second half to dispel the English, the Kangaroos are rightly at short odds to take out a second global title on the bounce. Mal Meninga has shown his success at Queensland wasn’t just about the players, as he’s instilled a belief and a culture amongst his team that has resulted in them playing sensational footy.

New Zealand: Even before the Kiwis loss to Scotland their form had been scrappy. Illustrated by the narrow win against England in round 1, and an inaccurate display against Australia the week after. But the real worry was the attitude and desire shown against the Scots last week. In a game they were expected to dominate, the Kiwis only just managed a draw. Andrew Johns was super critical of their arrogance ahead of the game and the control exerted by Shaun Johnson. While not entirely fair, the message is clear. The Kiwis must show passion right from the kickoff, start well and eliminate mistakes if they’re to be any chance in the final.

That said, history shows us they do get lucky in one-off finals from time to time.

Odds

Australia: $1.25 from Sportsbet.

England: $4.33 is the best for the Kiwis at Bet365.

Prediction and Tips

Who are we to bet against Kangaroos playmaker, Jonathan Thurston who is set to play his final game on English soil having never lost a game. Interestingly, Wikipedia already has Australia as the winners and New Zealand as the runner-up. Australia by 14.

Do or Die for England in Four Nations Finale

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Wayne Bennett’s prickly post game interviews and his side’s indifferent on-field performances have left many English rugby league fans questioning his commitment to the role, and thus Bennett’s long term tenability. After a first up loss against the Kiwis and a mediocre effort in Round 2 versus the Scots, Bennett’s English side are little chance to make the final of the tournament they’re hosting. Local fans could potentially live with that result if it was apparent that Bennett had the best interests of the team’s future at heart, and had blooded some new players or improved the way they were playing the game. However, there’s little evidence that any of those are happening, save for maybe the bold decision to use George Williams instead of Gareth Widdop.

Bennett’s side probably only have one game to show he’s the right man to take England rugby league to the next level. Unless they beat the Kangaroos handsomely, his side are unlikely to make the final. It’s a tough ask against an Australian side that have been brokenly accurate and stiffling in the first two rounds.

Let’s take a look at the key talking points ahead of the Round 3 clash:

Teams

Australia: Darius Boyd, Valentine Holmes, Josh Dugan, Greg Inglis, Blake Ferguson; Johnathan Thurston, Cooper Cronk; Matt Scott, Cameroon Smith (c), Aaron Woods , Matt Gillett, Boyd Cordner, Trent Merrin. Subs: David Klemmer, Michael Morgan, Tyson Frizell, Sam Thaiday.

England (from): John Bateman, Kevin Brown, George Burgess, Sam Burgess, Thomas Burgess, Daryl Clark, Mike Cooper, Luke Gale, James Graham, Ryan Hall, Chris Hill, Josh Hodgson, Jonny Lomax, Jermaine McGillvary, Mark Percival, Kallum Watkins, Elliott Whitehead, Gareth Widdop, George Williams.

Team Selection Talking Points

Australia: Mel Meninga is fielding his strongest side as he prepares for an anticipated final. As a result, Cooper Cronk returns to the side and James Maloney drops out.

England: Wayne Bennett is keeping his side close to his chest, but James Graham is expected to be fit. Given the Kiwis win overnight, the game has added importance and Bennett hasn’t announced his final 17.

Tournament Form

Australia: Despite making a number of changes to their team throughout the opening two rounds, the Kangaroos have looked exceptionally impressive. After putting away Scotland easily, they beat New Zealand comfortably without ever really hitting top gear. It’s easy to get the impression that they’re simply shadow boxing their way through the round robin stages in readiness to explode in the final.

England: After dropping their match against the Kiwis, Sam Burgess’s men bounced back with a hard fought win against neighbours Scotland. They weren’t impressive, but they did enough to get the W and stay in the competition. In the must win finale, England have to improve their defence and discipline, and hope for something special from new halves combination Luke Gale and George Williams.

Odds

Australia: $1.25 offered by bet365 is the best price on an Aussie win.

England: $4.50 at Luxbet.

Prediction and Tips

It was 10 years ago when England last had a win against Australia. It was in the Great Britain days and not England days, yet since then Australia have rolled on with almost metronomic consistency. We expect another Australian victory. We’re picking an Australian win by 10 points.

Kiwis in Driving Seat to Reach Four Nations Final

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New Zealand’s final round robin match of the Four Nations provides coach David Kidwell with a bit of a headache. On one hand, it would be tempting to give his players a rest ahead of an expected final against Australia. But on the other hand, the match may be the perfect opportunity to play some of his players into form and allow combinations to develop.

The players desperately seeking form include Isaac Luke, Shaun Kenny-Dowall and Thomas Leuluai. These three are critical in helping Shaun Johnson shoulder some of the creative workload, as the Kiwis simply look too predictable relying on Johnson to break the line, create overlaps or generally add a spark.

Luke needs to run the ball more, he ran just once against the Kangaroos. Kenny-Dowall’s been poor in the tournament, but at club level consistently breaks the line (9 line breaks, 112 tackle busts in 2016). And, Leuluai just needs to gel with Johnson in the way Kieran Foran does. Kidwell’s taken the opposite approach to Kenny-Dowall and instead of giving him the opportunity to find some form, he has dropped him altogether.

Historically, NZ struggle when they play without Simon Mannering and Kieran Foran, so they should use this match against Scotland as an opportunity to find a way to get it done without them. That means strong defence in the middle of the park, controlling the speed of the play, the ball, and a kicking game that is on both sides of the park.

Mind you, the talk of playing players into form and finding synergy are premature. They must win well to ensure an easy passage into the final.

Let’s take a look at the key talking points ahead of the Round 3 clash:

Teams

New Zealand: Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, Jason Nightingale, Solomone Kata, Gerard Beale, David Fusitu’a, Thomas Leuluai, Shaun Johnson, Jesse Bromwich (c), Issac Luke, Adam Blair, Manu Ma’u, Tohu Harris, Greg Eastwood, Te Maire Martin, Martin Taupau, James Fisher-Harris, Joseph Tapine, Lewis Brown, Jordan Rapana (two to be omitted).

Scotland: (From) Danny Addy, Euan Aitken, Sam Brooks, Danny Brough (c), Tyler Cassel, Lachlan Coote, Luke Douglas, Dale Ferguson, Ben Hellewell, Liam Hood, Ben Kavanagh, Kane Linnett, Frankie Mariano, Brett Phillips, Callum Phillips, Matty Russell, David Scott, Lewis Tierney, Adam Walker (two to be omitted).

Team Selection Talking Points

New Zealand:The Kiwis are likely to give four new players a taste of international football with David Fusitu’a, Te Maire Martin, James Fisher-Harris and Joseph Tapine all included in the game day squad.

In changes to the team that lost to Australia, one-test Kiwi Dallin Watene-Zelezniak will start at fullback, instead of Jordan Kahu. Jason Nightingale returns to the wing, pushing Gerard Beale to the centres and Shaun Kenny-Dowall out of the team.

Manu Ma’u and Greg Eastwood will start in the forwards instead of the rested Kevin Proctor and Jason Taumalolo.

Scotland:Senior leader Luke Douglas noted that a number of players were tending to injuries, so expect one or two changes to the team that pushed England close last week. No matter which players turn out we’re sure another dose of international football for the players will pay long-term dividends.

Tournament Form

New Zealand: The Kiwis started by beating England by one point before losing to Australia 14-8 last weekend. The Kiwis have been slow out of the starting blocks on both occasions, giving up early leads and momentum. They’ll be looking to rectify that in a game they’ll probably view as an opportunity to fine-tune ahead of an expected final next week. Although, that’s not a done deal. New Zealand will need to beat Scotland convincingly and hope England don’t beat Australia by a large margin.

Scotland: The plucky underdogs have shown glimpses of form in their first two losses. However, they’ve struggled to keep it up for the full eighty minutes. After losses by 42 points and 26 points respectively, Scotland hasn’t travelled badly, but they face an almost impossible task against a New Zealand team who have resisted the urge to rest players in their final game of the tournament.

Odds

New Zealand: $1.01 from all major bookmakers.

Scotland: $65 from Betfair.

Prediction and Tips

Points haven’t come that easily for the Kiwis in the Four Nations thus far, registering just 25 across the two games. However, against a relatively immature international team, Scotland expect there to be a few more opportunities to exploit. We like New Zealand by 41-45 – $11 at Sportsbet.

Rugby League: Stage Set for Epic Four Nations Double Header

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The cosy rugby league grounds of the Northern Hemisphere are creating terrific atmospheres for players in the Four Nations format. Boutique stadiums, just like Coventry, that deliver a tense match day experience are perfect for the neighbourly head to heads that feature in Round 2 of the tournament. Saturday’s double header sees the trans tasman rivals face off in what could be a tournament final curtain raiser, and England host Scotland.

In addition to the boisterous crowds, here’s what we’re expecting from the two games and what the bookies are offering in Four Nations odds:

New Zealand v Australia

Teams:

New Zealand

Jordan Kahu, Gerard Beale, Solomone Kata, Shaun Kenny-Dowall, Jordan Rapana, Thomas Leuluai, Shaun Johnson, Jesse Bromwich (c), Issac Luke, Adam Blair, Kevin Proctor, Tohu Harris, Jason Taumalolo, Lewis Brown, Martin Taupau, Manu Ma’u, Greg Eastwood, Joseph Tapine, David Fusitu’a (two to be omitted).

There are just two changes to the Kiwis side that beat England in Round 1. Gerard Beale replaces the injured Jason Nightingale, and experienced forward Greg Eastwood comes into the side for the injured Jared Waerea-Hargreaves. Thomas Leuluai is fit to play despite a sickening head clash against England putting his place in jeopardy. Eastwood’s impact will be from the bench, which means Adam Blair who was influential against England (and Australia in the tournament warm-up) will move into the starting side.

Keep an eye on Shaun Johnson throughout. He was much better against England but won’t be afforded the same time on the board in this one. He’ll also be asked to make a huge number of tackles if Australia approach him in the same way they did when the teams met in Perth.

Australia

Darius Boyd, Shannon Boyd, Boyd Cordner, Blake Ferguson, Jake Friend, Matt Gillett, Valentine Holmes, Greg Inglis, David Klemmer, James Maloney, Trent Merrin, Michael Morgan, Matt Moylan, Justin O’Neill, Matt Scott, Cameron Smith (c), Sam Thaiday, Johnathan Thurston, Aaron Woods

Winger Josh Mansour injured his knee in a training collision with Josh Dugan and will miss the rest of the tournament. Mansour was Australia’s best player against Scotland and his absence gives Blake Ferguson a reprieve. Cooper Cronk is getting a rest which gives Michael Morgan and Matt Moylan the opportunity to press for the bench utility role for the business end of the tournament.

Odds

New Zealand: $3.50 at William Hill and Centrebet.

Australia: $1.35 at Sportsbet.

Prediction

Australia has won this year’s two meetings comfortably, and even though NZ surprised many with their gutsy Round 1 win, are likely to win here again. They look too strong on paper and seem to have got the mental edge back over NZ that they briefly gave up in 2014. Mel Meaning has instilled a humbleness to his team (he’s even making them clean their own changing rooms after games) that is making them even better. Add to it the competition for spots which is making each player hungrier – Val Holmes missing out is a travesty for rugby league, but an indication of how strong Australia are – and Australia are going to be tricky to beat. We have them winning by 8.

England v Scotland

Teams

England

John Bateman, George Burgess, Sam Burgess (c), Thomas Burgess, Daryl Clark, Mike Cooper, Liam Farrell, Luke Gale, Ryan Hall , Chris Hill, Josh Hodgson, Jonny Lomax, Jermaine McGillvary, Mark Percival, Dan Sarginson, Scott Taylor , Kallum Watkins, Elliott Whitehead, George Williams (two to be omitted).

Firebrand James Graham has a medial tear in his knee so hasn’t been included, but in better news, Sam Burgess will play despite a side strain. The other big talking point is Gareth Widdop’s omission. He’s been dropped to give George Williams a chance after coach Wayne Bennett admitted being impressed by the young half in the Super League finals.

Scotland

Danny Addy, Euan Aitken, Sam Brooks, Danny Brough (c), Tyler Cassel, Lachlan Coote, Luke Douglas, Dale Ferguson, Ben Hellewell, Liam Hood , Ben Kavanagh, Kane Linnett, Frankie Mariano, Brett Phillips, Callum Phillips, Matty Russell, David Scott, Lewis Tierney, Adam Walker (two to be omitted).

Ryan Brierley, who left the ground with a protective boot on an ankle, is one of several changes to Steve McCormack’s Scotland side. Others include, Sheldon Powe-Hobbs and Billy McConnachie making way for Frankie Mariano and Brett Phillips. Tyler Cassel, Callum Phillips and David Scott also enter the reckoning.

Odds

England: $1.02 at Betfair.

Scotland: $34 at bet365.

Prediction

England were very polished in the opening twenty minutes of their first up defeat to the Kiwis, but promise counts for little in such a condensed tournament. The hosts now need to beat Scotland this week and world champions Australia to have a chance of winning the tournament. They’ll have the belief to get the job done against Scotland, however it may be their only win of the tournament. England by 28 ($17 at bet365).

Kiwis Looking to End Poor Run of Form

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In a first round Four Nations clash to savour, two newly appointed national coaches go head-to-head in Huddersfield.

However, the coaches couldn’t be any more different. England’s coach, Wayne Bennett, is one of Rugby League’s super coaches. A veteran of State of Origin, NRL and Super League, the Hall of Famer has won more NRL titles than any other coach (7). And while he’s only recently started working with England, he has more Rugby League IP than any one else on the planet. The transition should be seamless.

On the other hand, new Kiwis coach David Kidwell, hasn’t yet coached a club side in a head coaching capacity. While he’s worked as an assistant with the Storm and the Tigers in the NRL, his pedigree doesn’t reach anywhere near the heights of Bennet’s.

Kidwell will therefore need a huge effort from his captain Jesse Bromwich and the rest of the leadership group to overcome a series loss to England the last time the two sides met. Especially considering the form England bring into the match after they destroyed France 40-6 in last week’s warm up.

Here’s how the teams shape up for the Round 1 match up, and our prediction as to what to expect:

Teams

New Zealand: Jordan Kahu; Jason Nightingale, Solomone Kata, Shaun Kenny- Dowall, Jordan Rapana; Thomas Leuluai, Shaun Johnson; Jesse Bromwich (capt), Issac Luke, Jared Waerea-Hargreaves, Kevin Proctor, Tohu Harris, Jason Taumalolo. Bench: Lewis Brown, Martin Taupau, Manu Ma’u, Adam Blair.

England: John Bateman, George Burgess, Sam Burgess, Tom Burgess, Daryl Clark, Mike Cooper, Liam Farrell, Luke Gale, James Graham, Ryan Hall, Chris Hill, Josh Hodgson, Jonny Lomax, Jermaine McGillvary, Dan Sarginson, Kallum Watkins, Elliott Whitehead, Gareth Widdop, George Williams.

Team Selection Talking Points

New Zealand: No changes from the team that lost to Australia in Perth, as Kidwell keeps the faith. He’ll be looking for more out of his big forward pack at both ends of the field. He obviously needs them to make metres, but he also needs them to protect Shaun Johnson on defence -Johnson made 34 tackles against the Kangaroos, that’s too many for your chief playmaker. It will be interesting to see how Waerea-Hargreaves goes. He’s under a huge amount of pressure to keep his place after a disappointing stint last time out.

England: Bennett has made a number of changes to the side he used against France, notably, significantly shuffling the look of his interchange. He is no longer carrying three backs on the bench in order to accommodate more forward firepower. Luke Gale has been given the start in the number 7 number and will partner Widdop. Gale’s been rewarded for stellar club form that has seen him win the Albert Goldthorpe Medal for the last two years playing for Castleford. Utility Dan Sarginson makes his return after a two year hiatus.

Form

New Zealand: L, L, L, W, L, W (all against either Australia or England)

England: W, W, L, W, W, L (all against either New Zealand or France)

Odds

New Zealand: $1.80 at Luxbet and Betfair

England: $2.23 at Unibet

Prediction and Tips

Having earlier predicted an Australia / England Four Nations final, it would be counter-intuitive to predict anything other than an England win here. Games played in the Northern Hemisphere are usually close encounters and we’re not expecting anything different. With the home crowd support squeaking England home, the $6.50 offered by Sportsbet for an England win by 6-10 looks like great money.