Category: Rugby

2015 Six Nations Preview – Game Week 4

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

It’s the penultimate round of fixtures in the 2015 Six Nations and, after a convincing victory over England last week, the Six Nations title is now Ireland’s to lose. But will an improving Wales side stop them in their tracks in Cardiff? In the other games, can England stay in the race and hope for an Ireland slip-up, or will Scotland spare themselves wooden spoon embarrassment. And can Italy record a second victory when they face struggling France?

Wales v Ireland – Saturday 14:30 (GMT)

Ireland’s sights are still firmly set on the Grand Slam after they outclassed England to win 19-9 in Dublin two weeks ago. But Wales, who put in a strong performance in Paris to see off France 20-13, will certainly be no pushovers at the Millennium Stadium.

It was at this stage last year that the Irish slipped up in their pursuit of a Grand Slam, although they did still manage to win the tournament. They’ll want to rectify that in Cardiff, where they beat the Welsh 30-22 in their last meeting there, two years ago. The 2013 tournament went in very different directions for each side following that match, with Ireland not winning another game, finishing a lowly fifth, while Wales went on to win the tournament.

Wales will hope this year’s competition will follow a similar pattern to that of 2013. Having lost their opening game in Cardiff, they have subsequently gone on to win their last two. But victory over a formidable Ireland side is necessary for them to stand any chance of another title.

It’s hard to look past the Irish for this one though, they have won each of their last 10 games – including victories over France, Australia and South Africa in that run. The ability for Ireland to get in front in games – and stay there – is one of the key reasons that this team is highly-tipped to be genuine contenders at the World Cup later in the year.

Despite their dominance, most of Ireland’s points have come from the boot of Jonathan Sexton, with Josef Schmidt’s side landing just three tries in the tournament so far. Don’t expect that to change in Cardiff.

Best Bets:

Under 2.5 Total Tries – 13/8 Paddy Power

England v Scotland – Saturday – 17:00 (GMT)

After impressive attacking displays against Wales and Italy, England will be hurt to have been so out-classed by Ireland a fortnight ago. All they can do now is win their remaining games against Scotland and France, while hoping Ireland slip up.

The Calcutta Cup is at stake at Twickenham, with Scotland desperately hoping to avoid a winless tournament, so expect the Scots to be riled for this one after their loss to Italy last time out. It’s been 32 years since Scotland triumphed at the home of English Rugby though, so history is certainly against them.

Best Bets:

Jonathan Joseph First Try Scorer – 11/1 Paddy Power or Coral

Italy v France – Sunday – 15:00 (GMT)

France have lost their last two trips to Rome and, having suffered successive defeats to Ireland and Wales in their last two fixtures, could well be low on confidence heading to the Italian capital once again.

Confidence should be high for Italy, meanwhile, after they beat Scotland 22-19 in a dramatic encounter at Murrayfield in the last fixture. A win for the Azzuri would see them leap frog les Bleus into fourth place.

Best Bets:

Italy to win – 11/4 SkyBet or BoyleSports

Super Rugby Round 5 Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

No one could have accurately predicted the spanners thrown into the mix by the Lions and the Highlanders in last week’s Super Rugby action.  Round 5 shouldn’t feature as many potential banana skins, but it probably includes more games that could go either way.  Particularly, the Chiefs start to their South African tour against the table topping Stormers.

Our picks for Round 5 below:

Hurricanes v Blues

Hurricanes – $1.21

Blues – $4.50

John Kirwan is under all sorts of pressure and an away match against the New Zealand conference’s only unbeaten team is not what he needs.  Thus, the Blues could be heading back over the Bombay Hills winless and coachless after they lose to the Hurricanes on Friday night.  Coming off the bye won’t be a factor for the Canes, nor will throwing Nehe Milner-Shudder a first Super Rugby start.  Hurricanes too strong from 6-13, they’ll win by 13+.

Force v Rebels

Force – $1.62

Rebels – $2.30

The poor cousins of the Australian conference will battle it out in what shapes to be an incredibly even contest.  For once the Force are favourites (they have won just two of the eight encounters between the teams in Super Rugby history), probably because of the home advantage rather than compelling form.  Both sides have won one game thus far, both coming in the first week against more fancied opponents.  Since then though it’s been slim pickings.  The Rebels had a bye last week too, but in their last match were unlucky in a narrow loss to the Brumbies.  The Force seem to be getting worse, so we’re backing the Rebels by 1-12.

Crusaders v Lions

Crusaders – $1.09

Lions – $8.00

There’s is zero possibility of the Lions doing to the Crusaders what they did to the Blues last week.  The Crusaders will be far too strong at home, and I for one like their approach of using Dan Carter at 12.   The All Blacks will like the approach too.  Because of Aaron Cruden’s kicking woes (you can’t play him in a World Cup final at the moment), they need to see Slade at ten to see how he’s progressing, but also need Carter on the paddock because he might be the best option even with all the injuries.  The return of Kieran Read and Sam Whitelock also delivers a big boost for the home side.  Crusaders 13+.

Highlanders v Waratahs

Highlanders – $2.40

Waratahs – $1.59

We might be the only ones but we like the Highlanders in this one.  The New Zealand side have shown a resolute defence in the tournament thus far and that’s exactly what they need to contain the talented Waratahs backs.  Israel Folau is expected to spend some time in the centres, creating a mouth watering showdown against All Black Malakai Fekitoa.  Fekitoa’s defence has improved markedly since becoming an All Black and has added breakdown turnovers to his repertoire; the winner of that particular contest could determine the overall victor.  The Waratahs are unchanged and despite them having the better overall record, we’ll go Highlanders 1-12.

Reds v Brumbies

Reds – $3.60

Brumbies – $1.30

Unfortunately, this match is a foregone conclusion.  The Brumbies are the best team in the conference, and the Reds are a rabble of misfits and past performers.  They’re also badly affected by injuries with James O’Connor again ruled out, Lachie Turner sitting out due to a concussion and Quade Cooper still on the sidelines.  They were well off the pace against last week and don’t deserve much attention against the Brumbies.  Brumbies 13+.

Stormers v Chiefs

Stormers – $1.75

Chiefs – $2.10

This is the toughest game of the round to call.  The table topping Stormers against the third placed Chiefs is a dream come true for Rugby fans who are noticing their sport suddenly lose marketshare to cricket.  The fifth round rugby savour will match up two of the more dangerous midfielders in the world – Sonny Bill Williams and Damian de Allende.  The match up between Liam Messam and Duane Vermeulen is also worth the admission alone.  Both teams have opted for a significant number of changes to their teams, presumably managing the workload of a busy calendar year.  We’ll vote against the masses and pick the Chiefs 1-12.  We think they’ll be embarrassed by last week and bounce back strongly.

Cheetahs v Sharks

Cheetahs – $2.15

Sharks – $1.72

Two teams who are playing hot and cold rugby face off and make the final match of the round also difficult to predict.  The Cheetahs have two wins and the Sharks, surprisingly, have just one.  Bismarck du Plessis returns to lead the Sharks, and former England international Mouritz Botha also enters the fray.  Free State Stadium may give the Cheetahs an advantage if they can recover from the shock points ambush inflicted by Handre Pollard and the Bulls last week.  Cheetahs 1-12.

The Multi

A head to head multi on these selections pays $38.40

A margin mutli on these selections pays $282.64

Super Rugby Round 1 Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Super Rugby returns this weekend with most of the teams in action.  Check out preview of all the matches below, with odds from Tom Waterhouse.

Crusaders v Rebels, Christchurch, Friday 5.35pm

Crusaders – $1.15

Rebels – $5.75

This is a tough one to predict first up.  The Rebels have never won outside of Australia, but they do have a relatively strong record against the Crusaders, who for all of their success in Super Rugby competitions are slow starters.  Nonetheless, we’re going with a Crusaders win here, mainly because of the excitement in Christchurch at the moment with the opening of the Cricket World Cup bringing loads of positivity and a big crowd.

Brumbies v Reds, Canberra, Friday 7.40pm

Brumbies – $1.33

Reds – $3.40

None of the opposition teams in Week 1 are favourites with the bookmakers.  This is no exception.  The Reds are without Quade Cooper, James O’Connor and former All Black Adam Thomson, and instead will rely on Karmichael Hunt to guide them around the paddock.  That’s probably too much to ask in your first rugby game of any significance.  Therefore, we’re going with the Brumbies by a narrow margin.  Keep an eye out for David Pocock who makes a return after a long injury lay off.

Lions v Hurricanes, Johhanesburg, Saturday 4.10am

Lions – $2.10

Hurricanes – $1.75

The Hurricanes leak more points than the District 5 did before Charlie Conway joined.  Expect no different when they take on the Lions in Johannesburg early Saturday morning.  But that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll lose.  If the star-studded backbone can make up for the weak forward pack the amount of points they concede might not matter.  In TJ Perenara, Beauden Barrett and Cory Jane the Hurricanes have enough class to get home in this one.

Blues v Chiefs, Auckland, Saturday 5.35pm

Blues – $2.00

Chiefs – $1.80

Surprisingly, the Blues only lost one home game last year, to the Chiefs mind you, however, that was with a full complement of All Black stars who are sitting this one out.  The Blues are less affected by dubious rest policy, but we’re still thinking the Chiefs might get up and take this match out.  They have belief, they have the titles under their belt, and they have Sonny Bill Williams.

Sharks v Cheetahs, Durban, Sunday 2.10am

Sharks – $1.20

Cheetahs – $4.50

The Sharks will win easily.  They are comfortably the frontrunners of the South African Conference, and even early season rust won’t stop them from overrunning the notoriously weak Bloemfontein outfit. Unfortunately, we wouldn’t recommend considering the Cheetahs on too many occasions this year in your weekly tips or office sweepstake.

Bulls v Stormers, Pretoria, Sunday 4.10am

Bulls – $1.35

Stormers – $3.25

This might just be the closest of the opening round games.  The Bulls boast seven Springboks in their forward pack and the IRB Junior Player of the year in Handre Pollard so it’s a brave man who bets against them at Loftus.  We’ll back the Bulls by 7, only to be consistent with our majority home team picks.

Waratahs v Force, Sydney, Sunday 4.05pm

Waratahs – $1.16

Force – $5.35

The Super Rugby defending champions are heavily backed favourites for week 1.  The Force look weak on paper this year, and although we back them to win some games in Perth, the Tahs will be too comfortable at home.  Expect Izzy Folau to carve up the dry afternoon turf and set the early pace for try-scorers too.

Rugby: Super Rugby 2015 Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

It’s that time of year again.  Right in the heart of summer, the Super Rugby season gets underway on Friday night.  We’ve got a run down of each side and their 2015 chances, with odds from Luxbet.

New Zealand Conference

BLUES

Squad: Charles Piutau, Lolagi Visinia, Tevita Li, Ben Lam, Frank Halai, George Moala, Hamish Northcott, Pita Ahki, Francis Saili, Dan Bowden, Ihaia West, Simon Hickey, Jimmy Cowan, Jamison Gibson-Park, Bryn Hall, Joe Edwards, Luke Braid, Brendon O’Connor, Jerome Kaino (capt), Steven Luatua, Hayden Triggs, Patrick Tuipulotu, Josh Bekhuis, Culum Retallick, Charlie Faumuina, Angus Ta’avao, Ofa Tu’ungafasi, Tony Woodcock, Sam Prattley, Keven Mealamu, James Parsons.

Last Year: 10th

X-Factor: Charles Piutau is now a well established All Black squad member and will be hoping to use the 2015 Super Rugby season to springboard his chances for Rugby World Cup selection.  The exciting winger will make up part of an exciting back three for the Blues with Tevita Li, Frank Halai and George Moala all possibilities to join him.

2015 Chances: Pretty slim.  First five-eighth has always been a stick area for the Blues and this year they’re putting their money on youngsters Simon Hickey, Ihaia West and the returning Dan Bowden.  None of this numbers draws much excitement and could be another painful year for the City of Sails residents.

2015 Odds: $19.00

CHIEFS

Squad: Tim Nanai-Williams, Tom Marshall, Hosea Gear, James Lowe, Bryce Heem, Anton Lienert-Brown, Seta Tamanivalu, Charlie Ngatai, Sonny Bill Williams, Andrew Horrell, Aaron Cruden (co-capt), Damian McKenzie, Augustine Pulu, Brad Weber, Liam Squire, Sam Cane, Sean Polwart, Liam Messam (co-capt), Tevita Koloamatangi, Michael Leitch, Johan Bardoul, Brodie Retallick, Matt Symons, Michael Allardice, Mike Fitzgerald, Ben Tameifuna, Mitchell Graham, Jamie MacIntosh, Pauliasi Manu, Nathan Harris, Rhys Marshall, Quentin MacDonald.

Last Year: Qualifiers (5th)

X-Factor: It’s hard to overlook the World Rugby Player of the Year (Brodie Retallick) but the return of Sonny Bill Williams is likely to get most of the newspaper share.  After two seasons in the NRL, SBW returns to help the All Blacks go back to back at the World Cup.  Despite the season away he still has plenty about his game to like.  Look out for the offloads.

2015 Chances: Second favourites with the bookmakers on account of their fine record over the last three years.  Will go close again.

2015 Odds: $5.50

HURRICANES

Squad: Nehe Milner-Skudder, Matt Proctor, Jason Woodward, Cory Jane, Julian Savea, Vince Aso, Conrad Smith (capt), Reynold Lee-Lo, Ma’a Nonu, Willis Halaholo, Beauden Barrett, James Marshall, TJ Perenara, Chris Smylie, Victor Vito, Blade Thomson, Ardie Savea, Callum Gibbins, Iopu Iopu-Aso, Brad Shields, Mark Abbott, Jeremy Thrush, James Broadhurst, Christian Lloyd, Geoffrey Cridge, Jeffery Toomaga-Allen, Chris Eves, Ben Franks, Ben May, Reggie Goodes, Dane Coles, Motu Matu’u.

Last Year: 7th

X-Factor: It’s difficult to pick international stars as the players to watch when we know they’ll sit ut portions of the tournament in order to manage workloads ahead of the Rugby World Cup.  Nevertheless, Julian Savea cannot be ignore.  The best finisher in the World is the modern day Jonah Lomu and an important part of the Hurricanes side.

2015 Chances: The Hurricanes should be there or thereabouts come the business end of the competition.  Can be incredibly inconsistent at this level and tend to leak a few too many tries, but we expect them to finish in the top 8, and push for the qualifying rounds.

2015 Odds: $16.00

CRUSADERS

Squad: Israel Dagg, Johnny McNicholl, Nemani Nadolo, Jone Macilai, Robbie Fruean, Kieran Fonotia, Tom Taylor, Dan Carter, Colin Slade, Andy Ellis, Mitchell Drummond, Kieran Read (capt), Luke Whitelock, Matt Todd, Richie McCaw, Jordan Taufua, Jimmy Tupou, Luke Romano, Sam Whitelock, Dominic Bird, Scott Barrett, Owen Franks, Nepo Laulala, Wyatt Crockett, Joe Moody, Tim Perry, Ben Funnell, Codie Taylor, Ged Robinson.

Last Year: Beaten Finalists

X-Factor: With a host of Crusaders stars resting this year Nemani Nadolo is the x-factor after a breakout 2014.  Joint top try-scorer last year with 12, the Fijian has explosive speed and will be one of the top try-scorers again this year.

2015: Chances: Good as always.  Sure they’ll lose some AB’s, and they’ve lost Andy Ellis.  But they’re well-coached, well used to winning and brilliantly lead by Kieran Read.  Will go close.

2015 Odds: $5.50

HIGHLANDERS

Squad: Ben Smith (co-capt), Trent Renata, Kurt Baker, Patrick Osborne, Waisake Naholo, Richard Buckman, Malakai Fekitoa, Jason Emery, Shaun Treeby, Marty Banks, Lima Sopoaga, Hayden Parker, Aaron Smith, Fumiaki Tanaka, Nasi Manu (co-capt), Gareth Evans, Shane Christie, John Hardie, Dan Pryor, Elliot Dixon, Joe Wheeler, Mark Reddish, Tom Franklin, Alex Ainley, Ross Geldenhuys, Josh Hohneck, Brendon Edmonds, Kane Hames, Ma’afu Fia, Pingi Tala’apitaga, Liam Coltman, Ash Dixon.

Last Year: Qualifiers (6th)

X-Factor: 2014 was the year of Malakai Fekitoa.  Relatively unknown at the start of the year, Fekitoa reached the lofty heights of All Black mainstay, and even developed his game to play both midfield positions.  A strong runner, he also added some nice deft touches and kicking options later in the year too.

2015: Chances: They won’t win it, but they could upset some more favoured teams along the way to finishing around 10th.

2015 Odds: $41.00

Australian Conference

REBELS

Squad: Cruze Ah-Nau, Paul Alo-Emile, Luke Burgess, Cam Crawford, Steve Cummins, Jack Debreczeni, Tamati Ellison, Tom English, Colby Fainga’a, Scott Fuglistaller, Jed Gillespie, Mike Harris, Bryce Hegarty, Scott Higginbotham, Keita Inagaki, Mitch Inman, Sam Jeffries, Luke Jones, Tom Kingston, Pat Leafa, Sean McMahon, Ben Meehan, Tim Metcher, Sefanaia Naivalu, Cadeyrn Neville, Jonah Placid, Jordy Reid, Radike Samo, Tom Sexton, Dom Shipperley, Toby Smith, Nic Stirzaker, Lopeti Timani, Telusa Veainu, Laurie Weeks, Ben Whittaker.

Last Year: 15th

X-Factor: The Rebels coach, Damien Hill, recently said that “[In Scott Higginbotham] you’ve got one of the best ball-running, lineout jumping options in Australian rugby.  We won’t argue, he’ll be huge (figuratively) for the Rebels this year.

2015 Chances: Will struggle.

2015 Odds: $126.00

FORCE

Squad: Robbie Abel, Chris Alcock, Nathan Charles, Adam Coleman, Angus Cottrell, Pek Cowan, Tetera Faulkner, Ross Haylett-Petty, Chris Heiberg, Matt Hodgson, Oliver Hoskins, Steve Mafi, Ben McCalman, Brynard Stander, Wilhelm Steenkamp, Heath Tessman, Francois van Wyk, Rory Walton, Sam Wykes, Marcel Brache, Luke Burton, Nick Cummins, Pat Dellit, Sias Ebersohn, Kyle Godwin, Dane Haylett-Petty, Zack Holmes, Brad Lacey, Ryan Louwrens, Alby Mathewson, Luke Morahan, Albert Nikoro, Ian Prior, Junior Rasolea, Mitch Scott, Akihito Yamada.

Last Year: 8th

X-Factor: Nick Cummins doesn’t just have x-factor in television interviews – the Honey Badger as he’s affectionately known – is an accomplished finisher and after a quick stint in Japan has brokered a deal to make himself available for Super Rugby 2015.

2015 Chances: Enjoyed a relatively strong season last year despite not having many big name players.  Won’t be underestimated this year though, so we’re not expecting them to be factors in the tournament.

2015 Odds: $81.00

REDS

Squad: Curtis Browning, Ben Daley, Saia Faingaa, Lolo Fakaosilea, Liam Gill, James Hanson, Greg Holmes, James Horwill, David McDuling, Ed O’Donoghue, Eddie Quirk, Andrew Ready, Beau Robinson, Jake Schatz, James Slipper, Rob Simmons, Hendrik Tui, Adam Thomson, Quade Cooper, Anthony Faingaa, Chris Feauai-Sautia, Nick Frisby, Will Genia, Karmichael Hunt, Samuela Kerevi, Chris Kuridrani, Campbell Magnay, James O’Connor, Duncan Paia’aua, Ben Tapuai, Jamie-Jerry Taulagi, Lachie Turner.

Last Year: 13th

X-Factor: Karmichael Hunt will have plenty of eyes on him when he lines up for the Reds for the first time in 2015.  In fact, he’s lining up on a rugby pitch for the first time after successful stints in the NRL and AFL.  It takes a special player to play in all three formats and Special K is exactly that.

2015 Chances: Could spring a few surprises but likely to miss out on the top 6.

2015 Odds: $16.00

BRUMBIES

Squad: Allan Alaalatoa, Ben Alexander, Rory Arnold, Fotu Auelua, Jarrad Butler, Sam Carter, Sean Doyle, Blake Enever, Scott Fardy, Les Makin, Stephen Moore, Joshua Mann-Rea, David Pocock, Siliva Siliva, Scott Sio, Jordan Smiler, Jean-Pierre Smith, Ruan Smith, Tom Staniforth, Nigel Ah Wong, Robbie Coleman, James Dargaville, Michael Dowsett, Rod Iona, Tevita Kuridrani, Christian Lealiifano, Jesse Mogg, Henry Speight, Lausii Taliauli, Joe Tomane, Matt Toomua, Nic White.

Last Year: Semi-Finals

X-Factor: Tevita Kuridrani is one of the most underrated Australian backs in the game.  Every time he pulls on a Wallabies jumper he looks dangerous, yet doesn’t always get the game time he deserves.  It will be interesting to see how his hard line ball running goes in a World Cup year.

2015 Chances: Well coached, and very difficult to beat at home.  Should make the top 6.

2015 Odds: $12.00

WARRATAHS

Squad: Michael Alaalatoa, Mitchell Chapman, Dennis, Tala Gray, Stephen Hoiles, Jed Holloway, Michael Hooper, Sekope Kepu, Tolu Latu, Pat McCutcheon, Wycliff Palu, Tatafu Polota-Nau, Jacques Potgieter, Hugh Roach, Benn Robinson, Paddy Ryan, Will Skelton, Jeremy Tilse, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Kurtley Beale, Peter Betham, Matt Carraro, Bernard Foley, Israel Folau, Rob Horne, David Horwitz, Jono Lance, Kotaro Matsushima, Brendan McKibbin, Taqele Naiyaravoro, Nick Phipps, Ben Volavola.

Last Year: Winners

X-Factor: Israel Folau is quite simply one of the world’s best.  A devastatingly good 2014 saw him jointly top the try-scoring charts and guide the Warratahs to the title.  Folau breaks tackles at will with his languid angled running, and has proved difficult to stop in domestic and international rugby.

2015 Chances: Excellent chance of repeating their 2014 win.

2015 Odds: $4.50

South African Conference

SHARKS

Squad: Lourens Adriaanse, Mouritz Botha, Renaldo Bothma, Dale Chadwick, Michael Claassens, Marcell Coetzee, Kyle Cooper, Lionel Cronjé, Jean Deysel, Bismarck du Plessis, Jannie du Plessis, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Thomas du Toit, Andre Esterhuizen, Monde Hadebe, Conrad Hoffmann, Ryan Kankowski, Patrick Lambie, Khaya Majola, Franco Marais, SP Marais, Beast Mtawarira, Tera Mtembu, Lubabalo Mtyanda, Waylon Murray, Lwazi Mvovo, Odwa Ndungane, Etienne Oosthuizen, Paul Perez, JP Pietersen, Cobus Reinach, S’bura Sithole, Matt Stevens, Frans Steyn, Stefan Ungerer, Marco Wentzel, Heimar Williams, Jack Wilson, Cameron Wright, Fred Zeilinga.

Last Year: Semi-Finals

X-Factor: Bismarck du Plessis is an incredibly gifted athlete.  He has size, presence, and feet, and is equally happy on defence or attack.  The brute of a man sometimes attracts controversy for his aggressive approach, but just to be clear, he has x-factor by the bicep load.

2015 Chances: They’ll be the best of the South African bunch and should be around at the business end of the tournament.  Need to get themselves home finals if they want to seal the deal.

2015 Odds: $8.00

LIONS

Squad: Marnitz Boshoff, Andries Coetzee, Robin Coetzee, Ruan Combrinck, Ross Cronje, Faf de Klerk, Steph de Witt, Ruan Dreyer, Corne Fourie, Stokkies Hanekom, Elton Jantjies, Jaco Kriel, Robert Kruger, Ruaan Lerm, MB Lusaseni, Malcolm Marx, Lionel Mapoe, Sampie Mastriet, Derick Minnie, Howard Mnisi, Franco Mostert, Martin Muller, Julian Redelinghuys, Mark Richards, Courtnall Skosan, Warwick Tecklenburg, Armand van der Merwe, Schalk van der Merwe, Jaco van der Walt, Jacques van Rooyen, Anthony Volmink, Harold Vorster, Warren Whiteley (capt).

Last Year: 12th

X-Factor: The Lions have two main contenders for their most important player.  But neigher of them have x-factpr per se.  Marnitz Boshoff is one of the premium goal kickers in the competition.  Very rarely misses and often keeps his side in the hunt.  Their baby faced captain on the other hand Warren Whitely is the engine room of the pack.  Both crucial to their chances.

2015 Chances: No chance.

2015 Odds: $151.00

CHEETAHS

Squad: Caylib Oosthuizen, BG Uys, Danie Minnie, Torsten van Jaarsveld, Martin Bezuidenhout, Stefan Coetzee, Coenie Oosthuizen, Maks van Dyk, Ewald van der Westhuizen, Carl Wegner, Lodewyk de Jager, Francois Uys, Armand Koster, Boom Prinsloo, Carel Greeff, Jean Cook, Tienie Burger, Oupa Mohoje, Willie Britz, Sarel Pretorius, Shaun Venter, Tian Meyer, Joe Petersen, Willie du Plessis, Francois Brummer, Raymond Rhule, Cornal Hendricks, Danie Dames, Francois Venter, Rayno Benjamin, Michael van der Spuy, Johan Sadie, JW Jonker, Willie le Roux, Clayton Blommetjies.

Last Year: 14th

X-Factor: His South African coach recently hailed him as the world’s best fullback, which is no mean feat when others include Israel Dagg, Ben Smith and Israel Folau.  But Willie le Roux might just be able to back up that claim with a strong 2015.

2015 Chances: Also no chance.

2015 Odds: $151.00

BULLS

Squad: Arno Botha, Jacques du Plessis, Dean Greyling, Grant Hattingh, Nico Janse van Rensburg, Werner Kruger, Lappies Labuschagne, Hanro Liebenberg, Bandise Maku, Victor Matfield, Morne Mellett, Trevor Nyakane, Marvin Orie, RG Snyman, Pierre Spies, Deon Stegmann, Adriaan Strauss, Flip van der Merwe, Marcel van der Merwe, Callie Visagie, Jaco Visagie, Bjorn Basson, Ulrich Beyers, JJ Engelbrecht, Wayne Gelant, Francois Hougaard, Travis Ismaiel, Jesse Kriel, Duncan Matthews, Akona Ndungane, Burger Odendaal, Rudy Paige, Handre Pollard, Jacques-Louis Potgieter, Jan Serfontein, William Small-Smith, Jamba Ulengo, Piet van Zyl, Jurgen Visser.

Last Year: 9th

X-Factor: At just 20 years of age, Handre Pollard has already chalked up an impressive 9 test matches including when he helped stop the All Blacks impressive 22 match unbeaten record in Johannesburg.  Pollard was last year awarded the IRB Young Player of the Year acclaim, and we’re excited to see what he can do in his third year of Super Rugby.

2015 Chances: Should do okay in 2015 if they can get a couple of wins on the road.  Have a handy draw to help them on their way.

2015 Odds: $13.00

STORMERS

Squad: Ruan Botha, Schalk Burger, Manuel Carizza, Nizaam Carr, Rynhard Elstadt, Eben Etzebeth, Oliver Kebble, Steven Kitshoff, Jean Kleyn, Vincent Koch, Siya Kolisi, Wilco Louw, Frans Malherbe, Bongi Mbonambi, Sikhumbuzo Notshe, Siyabonga Ntubeni, Neil Rautenbach, Michael Rhodes, Jurie van Vuuren, Frans van Wyk, Alistair Vermaak, Duane Vermeulen, Michael Willemse, Demetri Catrakilis, Kurt Coleman, Damian de Allende, Juan de Jongh, Robert du Preez, Ryno Eksteen, Nick Groom, Pat Howard, Huw Jones, Cheslin Kolbe, Johnny Kotze, Dillyn Leyds, Godlin Masimla, Louis Schreuder, Jaco Taute, Kobus van Wyk, EW Viljoen.

Last Year: 11th

X-Factor: Duane Vermeulen was one of the best players in World Rugby last year.  His combative and aggressive approach unsettles plenty of opposition players and saw him nominated for the IRB Player of the Year award.  Some say he should have won, so he might have some frustration to take out on Super Rugby players.

2015 Chances: Could be the dark horses of the South African conference.  Don’t write off.

2015 Odds: $14.00

Wallabies New Era Suffers Second Straight Loss

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Wallabies coach Michael Cheika was left asking fans to keep the faith after their second consecutive three point loss to European opponents on Sunday morning.  The Wallabies went down 26-23 to Ireland in a see-sawing battle that left many fans wondering if Cheika has enough time to mould his Wallabies squad together before next year’s Rugby World Cup.  Despite clearly identifiable positives in the performances of Matt Toomua, Nick Phipps, and debutant winger Speight, the Australian rugby public will still be questioning the make-up of their best side as well as looking for reasons why the Wallabies always seem to finish on the wrong side of close games.

On one end of the spectrum was the Nick Phipps try; a culmination of brilliant handling, clever offloading and committed support play.  But this was matched with general sloppiness when they fell 17 points behind early.  Yet, the fight back from that deficit was an encouraging aspect of the match, featuring some of the Wallabies best rugby of the tour.

The scintillating comeback saw the Wallabies respond to the 17 point Irish head-start with 20 unanswered points.  Three long range tries featured in the burst that make up most of the positives the team will take away.  The Wallabies will also take some satisfaction that they were not completely destroyed at set piece.  The side already has a soft reputation with teams thinking they can overpower them comfortably.  A similar performance would have been catastrophic to their future chances.  Instead, the forward pack were brave, staunch.

Unfortunately, World Rugby Player of the Year nominee Jonathan Sexton kicked well from both general play and at goal to ultimately resign the Wallabies to another end of season tour loss.  This time though, losing to the best team in Europe (one that is unbeaten in seven matches and will go into the Six Nations as favourites) won’t feel as bitter as losing to the inconsistent French.

The Wallabies need to bounce back quickly.  They have only five more matches to play before the Rugby World Cup.  A win against England at Twickenham this weekend will certainly help the confidence.

Strong Finish Sees All Blacks Home

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It feels like the same tagline could have been used to describe each of the All Blacks Northern Tour matches.  Terms like “scrape home’ and “survived a scare” could have been paired with “brave opposition” and “last minute show of class” to illustrate exactly what occurred against England, Scotland, and now Wales.

As it was, a brave Welsh defensive effort that last all of 60 minutes was eventually broken down by moments of individual brilliance from Beauden Barrett, Kieran Read, and Aaron Smith.  There were times, two to be exact (when the Welsh led by a single point), where the Welsh faithful would have dared to dream a first win against the All Blacks since 1953 was possible, only to have the dream quickly turn into nightmare as tries to Barrett (2) and Read rudely interrupted the local hope.

Both tries were typical moments of skill and composure.  Barrett’s effort to take the All Blacks into a 70th minute lead was an excellent individual chip and chase with a cruel bounce of the ball seeing him past an incoming Leigh Halfpenny.  Read’s on the other hand was a close range charge down and gather, upsetting a Mike Phillips box clearance.  Read showed tremendous nous and patience close to the line in scoring the decisive game winner.

Before the late breakaway, the contest was dominated by strong defensive efforts from both sides.  The Welsh effort to keep the All Blacks scoreless in the first half was as impressive as it was slightly negative.  Without really threatening the All Blacks, and using a large number of stoppages to give running repairs to their forward pack, the home side clearly felt a disruptive rather than expansive game plan gave them the best chance of victory.

The approach worked for most of the first half as the Welsh flat defensive line squeezed the All Blacks and prevented them from finding any consistent width or space in which to play at their fast paced best.  Barrett and Halfpenny were the only point scorers in what made for relatively dour and error prone rugby.

The half time break at least provided a hint of inspiration for the sides as both crossed for early second half tries (Julian Savea and Rhys Webb) that entertained the 77,000 strong crowd but quickly reinstated the deadlock.  As the pressure began to tell, the kicking games of the sides started to reflect the ambition of the teams, and would eventually prove the difference.  The Welsh chose a territorial game and continuously booted quality ball away in attempts to drive the All Blacks into their own half.  The men in black however, opted for more positive kicking often behind the fast approaching rush defence.  The ploy was successful with a cross field Barrett kick leading to a Jerome Kaino try and a chip and gather effort from Barrett sending the Kiwi’s back to NZ with another test win.

Wales should take some heart from a defensive effort that definitely unsettled the All Blacks but will also rue missing out on a treasured win against the All Blacks, a win that at half time seemed entirely plausible.

All Blacks: 34 (Julian Savea, Jerome Kaino, 2 Beauden Barrett, Kieran Read tries; Beauden Barrett con, pen; Colin Slade 2 con) 

Wales: 16 (Rhys Webb try; Leigh Halfpenny con, 3 pens)