Admire Rakti defied top weight to land the Caulfield Cup for Japan under an inspired ride from Zac Purton, defeating Rising Romance and the fast finishing Lucia Valentina.
The winner was thought to be a more likely candidate for the two-mile Melbourne Cup for which he is now the clear 5-1 favourite. Lucia Valentina confirmed the form of her recent win in the Turnbull Stakes with the Peter Moody-trained pair Brambles and Lidari running almost pound for pound in fourth and sixth respectively. The concern for supporters of Lucia Valentina at Flemington will be whether she will see out the two miles.
The British challenge was reduced to Marco Botti’s Seismos following the defection of stable companion Dandino through lameness. Seismos was scrubbed along early in the race to try to get a position from the one barrier but quickly back-peddled when the race began in earnest.
Although Admire Rakti was impressive, there are two obvious factors why the current odds make no appeal. He will almost certainly receive a penalty for the Melbourne Cup and the draw could always go against him. Zac Purton had described him as “hit and miss” before the race, hardly an overwhelming endorsement of the horse’s consistency.
Ironically, punters had plunged on the other Japanese hope Bande who was withdrawn under veterinary advice at the eleventh hour. He could now be re-routed to the Melbourne Cup but, as with Dandino, you don’t really want injury problems so close to a big race.
Protectionist, promoted to favourite after finishing fourth in the Herbert Power, is now quoted at 8-1. The form of that race was not exactly boosted by the winner Big Memory who could finish only tenth in the Caulfield Cup. The German horse impressed Craig Williams and has form over extreme distances but he has never been the easiest horse to keep sound and would not be risked on firm ground.
The challenge from Britain and Ireland is pretty low key this year following disappointments with strongly fancied runners in previous years. Perhaps their best prospect of a victory lies with Irish runner Mutual Regard, trained by recently-retired top jockey Johnny Murtagh. The five-year-old son of Hernando has not run since winning the valuable Ebor Handicap at York in August. Murtagh decided to keep him fresh for the Melbourne Cup and everything has gone well in the build-up to the race. He could still represent some each-way value at around 20-1.
Mutual Regard (Melbourne Cup) @20-1 Paddy Power
Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4
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