Barely a decade ago, Caulfield Cup Day was, how should we put this delicately, unpleasant. The Melbourne Racing Club would pack the course tighter than a camel’s backside in a sandstorm. In 2005, more than 50,000 sardines crammed into the Heath to watch Railings win the Caulfield Cup. But the public’s taste for over-priced and over-crowded racedays has waned since those halcyon days of the 2000s so barely 30,000 will watch Saturday’s $3,000,000 BMW Caulfield Cup on track. That means we’re likely to be spared that priceless experience of mile-long bar/tote queues behind thousands of private school kids in dodgy suits with even dodgier IDs.
Aussie thoroughbred royalty
There’s still one place that’s assured to be packed to capacity on Caulfield Cup Day – the barriers for the day’s feature. With the scratching of Fanatic, De Little Engine has earned a call-up to ensure an 18-horse field. The richest 2400m handicap in the world was first run in 1879 when won by Newminster. The honour roll reads like a hall of fame list – from Rising Fast, Tulloch and Galilee to Ming Dynasty, Might And Power and Northerly. Just 11 horses have taken out the Caulfield-Melbourne Cups double in the same year (last achieved in 2001 by Ethereal) while only seven horses have won the race twice.
Dunaden and dusted
The media mercilessly hype the presence of the international runners in town for the Melbourne Cup. History shows that those horses have an abysmal record without a first-up run in Australia, but it’s a much different story when they have their debut run at the 2400m of the Caulfield Cup. Four genuine international runners – Taufan’s Melody (1998), All The Good (2008), Dunaden (2012) and Admire Ratki (2014) – have all shown that it’s possible to win this race without a previous start Down Under. Indeed, the victory of Dunaden stands out as arguably the greatest in the race’s history. A year after he won the Melbourne Cup, Dunaden became the first horse to win the Caulfield Cup from wider than barrier 15 (starting from gate 18), and the first to win after being allotted the top weight at acceptances (58kg).
Taking on the favourite
It’s virtually impossible to draw an accurate speedmap for this year’s Cup, but it certainly looms as a year where the visitors could pinch another win. Jameka (gate 13) is an easing $4.00 favourite with Ladbrokes and she leads a fairly lacklustre bunch of local contenders. The 4yo mare’s only win at this distance was her plodding effort on a bog track in last year’s VRC Oaks. She looked terrific when second to Hartnell in the Turnbull (2000m) after crushing the G3 Naturalism (2000m) field at Caulfield two back. However, barrier 13 is a tricky alley, and Nicholas Hall may struggle to have her better than three-out in the running. She’s a clear top pick among the Aussies but unders at 3-1.
Scottish the one to beat
The money has started to trickle in the direction of Scottish, but it’s likely to be more of a flood closer to the jump. The Irish-bred 5yo gelding for Charlie Appleby and the Godolphin team should be closer to the speed than the bulk of his UK rivals. He has been to 2400m before with the highlight a 1.5-length second to Highland Reel, with five lengths back to third. All four of his wins have been on firm ground, and he’ll get a good (3-4)run with mild conditions forecast for Melbourne over the next 48 hours. Metropolitan winner Sir John Hawkwood offers the best value at $15 (William Hill).
Betfair:
Bet on Henrik Stenson to become the BMW PGA Championship Winner.
Paddypower:
Back Australia to take the Ashes home with them.
Betway:
Back Rafael Nadal to become the Mens French Open Winner.
Coral:
Back One For Arthur to win the Grand National.
Bet365:
Back Mexico to win the Confederations Cup.
