The Champions League semi-final line-up is almost as expected with Juventus the only real surprise. The Italian giants have not reached the closing stages of this tournament since 2003 and the bookmakers rank them as 9-1 outsiders to go all the way.
They host reigning champions Real Madrid in the first leg of their semi-final on Tuesday night. The closing stages of this competition can be notoriously cagey affairs, particularly in the first leg. If the quarter-finals can be taken as any guide, this game is unlikely to buck the trend.
Juventus held on by a single goal to beat Monaco while Real Madrid looked destined for extra-time in their clash with local rivals Atletico. A red card for Arda Turan with fifteen minutes to go put Atletico firmly on the back foot and Javier Hernandez struck with just two minutes remaining. The win did little to convince the bookmakers that Real are good enough to defend their title, easing them to third favourites behind Bayern Munich and Barcelona.
The value of an away goal was illustrated when Arsenal and Chelsea were both eliminated and Juventus will be intent on preventing Real from scoring. With Benzema still absent, that means that the focus will be on Cristiano Ronaldo to carry the main threat. The Serie A champions have a fine defensive record with thirteen clean sheets this season.
They are also missing a key player on Paul Pogba and they were definitely more restrained in the quarter-finals without him. Carlos Tevez will be the main threat to the Spanish defence and he has enjoyed a great tournament with six goals already to his credit. Juventus would obviously love to have a lead to take to the Bernabeau but all of the omens suggest that this is going to be very tight.
Carlo Ancelotti has great faith in his squad and will make no excuses if they are beaten here. They were the more offensive side against Atletico in both matches and they will probably enjoy more of the ball than their opponents here. Go low on goals and it may be worth taking a little of the 7-1 on offer about a goalless draw.
Juventus 0 Real Madrid 0 @7-1 Bet365
Goals under 2.5 @8-13 Bet Victor
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