The Black Caps only have themselves to blame for letting Sri Lanka back in the series after a calamitous effort in the second one-day international in Hamilton. Instead of hammering home a Brendon McCullum inspired advantage, the Black Caps slipped an tripped their way to four run-outs and a below par total.
Sri Lanka rammed open the door, building pressure with spin and then making a mockery of New Zealand’s pace bowling stocks with an effortless chase.
New Zealand have some serious work to do to avoid losing two straight when the third match of the series gets underway at Eden Park. Eden Park will suit both sides; New Zealand, as the small boundaries neutralise the threat of the spinners, and Sri Lanka will enjoy a second straight game without swing on offer.
The balanced conditions will make for an intriguing encounter.
The Last Time These Two Met
Game two was a lesson in how to construct a run chase. It was also a lesson in how not to run between the wickets; New Zealand failing the even simplest of rules of backing up and ball-watching. Sri Lanka gave the chasing lesson. In particular Dilshan who scored the bulk of the 249 required runs, easing his way to 116 with effortless drives and pull shots. If New Zealand’s bowlers were guilty of bowling two lengths; offering up too many four balls, their batsman were guilty of imploding between the wickets.
The Black Caps were on track to score well over 300 after that man McCullum scored another hundred. Rather than push on though, his side threw away wicket after wicket eventually ending on 248; 50 short on the easy surface. The tourists did not make the same mistakes, losing only four wickets en-route to levelling the series. Dilshan was aptly assisted by Kumar Sangakkara (38), Mahela Jayawardene (27) and Angelo Matthews (39*).
The Teams
New Zealand (likely): 1 Martin Guptill, 2 Brendon McCullum (capt), 3 Tom Latham, 4 Ross Taylor, 5 Grant Elliott/ Daniel Vettori, 6 Luke Ronchi (wk), 7 Corey Anderson, 8 Nathan McCullum, 9 Tim Southee, 10 Mitchell McClenaghan, 11 Adam Milne/Trent Boult.
Tim Southee is available for the first time in the series. He may feature at the expense of Matt Henry leaving two of Milne, McClenaghan and Boult to partner him. No update has been given on Grant Elliot’s family illness that had him miss game two.
Sri Lanka (likely): 1 Dimuth Karunaratne, 2 Tillakaratne Dilshan, 3 Kumar Sangakkara (wk), 4 Mahela Jayawardene, 5 Angelo Mathews (capt), 6 Lahiru Thirimanne, 7 Thisara Perara, 8 Jeevan Mendis, 9 Nuwan Kulasekara, 10 Sachithra Senanayake, 11 Suranga Lakmal/ Rangana Herath.
The pitch at Eden Park may determine how many spinners Sri Lanka play. They’ll certainly be tempted to fill the gates with them, but won’t go overboard if the pitch won’t suit. No other changes expected.
The Key Players
Ross Taylor – Despite sitting game one out for a rest, Taylor looked dreadfully out of sorts in game two, and arguably cause much of the run out confusion by setting the scene of uncertainty. Taylor laboured to 34 from 69 balls before resorting to a leg side hoick and losing his wicket. Taylor needs to find a way to rotate the strike against the slow bowlers. He also needs lots more cricket before the CWC. We’re still backing him contribute though.
Tillakaratne Dilshan – The change in his batting from Christchurch to Hamilton was remarkable. No longer swishing aimlessly through the offside, instead driving the ball forcefully through the off side and dismissing every short ball (even the ones at 150 clicks). His bowling and field was also exemplary in a fine all round display. Dilshan is always involved; expect the same in Auckland.
The Match Odds*
New Zealand – $1.67
Sri Lanka – $2.20
*Courtesy of Bookmaker.com.au.
The Prediction
This could go either way. We’re tempted to pick Sri Lanka again as we have no confidence in Guptill, Taylor, Latham, and Elliot / Vettori to score runs at the moment. McCullum can’t keep propping New Zealand up. The frugal spin options that Sri Lanka have at their disposal (despite the small straight boundaries) is also a reason to back them. Accordingly, we’re going with Sri Lanka to take a 2-1 lead.
Betfair:
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Paddypower:
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Betway:
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Coral:
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Bet365:
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