[Tweet “Cricket World Cup Madness!”]As predicted, the four best teams in the Cricket World Cup have made it through to the semi-finals, and for the two of them competing in the tournament’s first semi-final, it could mean a first ever World Cup final.
New Zealand and South Africa head to a wet Eden Park in a bid to book a place in Melbourne’s World Cup showpiece against either Australia or India. They’ll have a bleak day of unpredictable weather to contend with, as well as the significant expectation of success that both countries have placed on their players. For New Zealand, that pressure has come about through a wealth of good form and an attractive brand of cricket. The Black Caps have lost once in their last 13 matches and are riding a public wave of admiration only ever seen before at the Rugby World Cup in 2011.
South Africa on the other hand have always had that expectation. They have simply never delivered. So much so, that their World Cups are more synonymous with choking than they are with success. They may have turned around their knockout fortune with an imperious win over Sri Lanka, but doubts will remain about their mettle if this one gets close.
Questions will also be asked of New Zealand’s fifth bowling option. Corey Anderson and Grant Elliot are expected to perform the role with little tournament experience, while some might point to Ross Taylor’s strike rate and running between the wickets as trouble zones too.
Either way, the cauldron of Eden Park will get that much hotter in the final quarter of the game as pressure and expectation weigh heavily on the players minds.
The Last Time These Two Met
In a full series in early October (the earliest cricket has ever been played in a New Zealand summer), South Africa comfortably got the better of an experimental New Zealand side (Jimmy Neesham was opening). They won the series 2-0 and were tracking well in the washed out Hamilton finale. The teams have met once since then in a World Cup warm up match in Christchurch. The Black Caps were at their devastating best in that match piling on 331 and bowling their opponents
The Teams
New Zealand (likely): 1 Brendon McCullum (capt), 2 Martin Gupill, 3 Kane Williamson, 4 Ross Taylor, 5 Grant Elliott, 6 Corey Anderson, 7 Luke Ronchi (wk), 8 Daniel Vettori, 9 Tim Southee, 10 Trent Boult, 11 Matt Henry
Adam Milne has been withdrawn from the World Cup because of a heel injury. The ICC have okayed Matt Henry as a replacement and he is expected to make a shock first appearance in a straight replacement.
South Africa (likely): 1 Hashim Amla, 2 Quinton de Kock (wk), 3 Faf du Plessis, 4 AB de Villiers (capt), 5 Rilee Rossouw, 6 David Miller, 7 JP Duminy, 8 Dale Steyn, 9 Vernon Philander/Kyle Abbott, 10 Morne Morkel, 11 Imran Tahir
AB de Villiers has confirmed his entire squad is fit and available. That means the selectors must only ponder over the third seam option. Vernon Philander adds more with the bat (he was the second highest South African scorer in the World Cup warm up match between the two sides), whereas Kyle Abbot’s aggressiveness helped create the early pressure that Sri Lanka found it impossible to come back from.
The Key Players
Daniel Vettori – Eden Park is not an easy place for spin bowlers. The two tiny straight boundaries are only an enticing strike away for most World Class batsman. But as he proved against Australia earlier in the tournament, Vettori has the guile to do well at Kingsland’s concrete jungle. In that game he successfully stalled the charge of David Warner and Shane Watson and essentially turned the game in New Zealand’s favour. The challenge will be to do it again against AB de Villiers and co.
Hashim Amla – Just as Vettori likes Eden Park, Amla likes playing New Zealand in New Zealand. In six games against the Black Caps on their own turf the elegant right-hander has managed 345 runs at 57.50. He’s also had a relative quiet World Cup, save for his 159 versus Ireland, so he’s well and truly due to bag big runs. His technique is arguably the best in his team’s lineup to counteract swing too; he plays the ball so late and can manoeuvre it anywhere with his freakishly supple wrists. His role will be to ensure South Africa don’t lose early wickets and retain them for a late onslaught.
The Match Odds*
New Zealand – $2.00
South Africa – $1.82
*Courtesy of Ladbrokes Australia.
The Prediction
Before the tournament, we would have given this match to South Africa comfortably. However, so good is New Zealand’s form it makes it awfully hard to bet against them. When one player fails, another will stand up, and to man, the team believes. That said, the 11 South African players are marginally better than the 11 Black Caps, and that will be decisive. South Africa to get home by 2 wickets or 25 runs.
The Best Bets
Guptill answered his critics, why can’t Taylor do so as well. Ross Taylor to Top Score @ $6.00
Guptil likes an over or so to get going. Back South Africa to Have Highest Score After Over 1 @ $2.25
AB de Villers Top Batsman / Dale Steyn Top Bowler Comb0 @ $16.00
Betfair:
Bet on Henrik Stenson to become the BMW PGA Championship Winner.
Paddypower:
Back Australia to take the Ashes home with them.
Betway:
Back Rafael Nadal to become the Mens French Open Winner.
Coral:
Back One For Arthur to win the Grand National.
Bet365:
Back Mexico to win the Confederations Cup.
