The first quarterfinal of the Cricket World Cup is also likely to be the most competitive. After four gruelling weeks (said with a hint of sarcasm in the direction of the teams that had eight days between games) eight quarterfinalists have been found to vie for the most coveted trophy in international cricket.
The first of those quarterfinals is played today in Sydney, featuring the runners up of the past two tournaments against a team that has never won a knockout match at a Cricket World Cup.
South Africa’s stumbling record is so underwhelming that its nigh on impossible to consider they won’t remedy it this time around. They have posted 400 twice in the tournament, they have the best batsman in the world and a fearsome new ball bowling attack.
Sri Lanka on the other hand, thrive in knockout matches (barring finals perhaps), and have over 1100 ODI matches between just three of their players (Mahela, Kumar and Dilshan). That is a strength, but it’s also a weakness as they often rely too heavily on those three names. To book a semifinal date with New Zealand / West Indies they’ll need to extract performances out of Malinga, Matthews and Thirimanne, all who have at times played significant roles in this World Cup.
It should be an absolute cracker.
The Last Time These Two Met
Of the last six matches the two team have played (dating back to July 2013) the teams have won three games apiece. Interestingly, none of the most recent matches have been close. Each win has been by over 56 runs (with an average winning margin of 85.6 runs) or by more 8 wickets or more. The most recent ODI – in July 2014 – resulted in South Africa winning by 82 runs in Hambantota.
Both teams lost twice during the Pool stage of this year’s tournament.
The Teams
South Africa (likely): 1 Hashim Amla, 2 Quinton de Kock (wk), 3 Faf du Plessis, 4 AB de Villiers (capt), 5 JP Duminy, 6 David Miller, 7 Rilee Russouw/ Farhaan Behardien, 8 Vernon Philander, 9 Morne Morkel, 10 Dale Steyn, 11 Imran Tahir
South Africa only have one selection decision to ponder. It could have been two given Quinton de Kock’s horrific form, but AB de Villiers looks reluctant to keep and has thrown his weight behind the youngster. That leaves a number seven decision between Rilee Rossouw, who has contributed nicely in the tournament thus far, and Farhaan Behardien. Behardien’s ability to send down some overs might be enough to get him in (he also smoked it against the UAE in their last Pool game).
Sri Lanka (likely): 1 Lahiru Thirimanne, 2 Tillakaratne Dilshan, 3 Kumar Sangakkara (wk), 4 Mahela Jayawardene, 5 Kusal Perera, 6 Angelo Mathews (capt), 7 Thisara Perara, 8 Seekkuge Prasanna/ Rangana Herath, 9 Nuwan Kulasekara, 10 Lasith Malinga, 11 Suranga Lakmal/ Dushmantha Chameera
Sri Lanka has arguably had the most injury issues to contend with of the major tournament contenders. Injury concerns remain over Herath in the only possible change to a settled side from the team that beat Scotland. If Herath’s finger is no good, Seekkuge Prasanna will play (and face a heap of pressure).
The Key Players
Kumar Sangakkara – The tournament’s leading runscorer is in the type of batting nirvana that batsman very rarely visit. Least of all at the age of 37. Sanga has already set the record for the most consecutive ODI hundreds during the tournament, peeling off four in a row after failing against Afghanistan. He’s scored them gracefully too, demonstrating textbook cricket shots still belong in the era of reverse paddles and scoops. He’s obviously the vital cog in the batting order along with Tilakaratne Dilshan, and South Africa will be on their way to the semis if they can remove him early.
AB de Villiers – The third top run scorer of the tournament is also his side’s key player. Throughout the tournament de Villiers has shouldered the hopes of a nation, and responded positively, confidently when probed about their form or ability to win the tournament. It’s the type of belief that makes hime such a dangerous batsman. His ability to score runs quickly is a frightening prospect for the Sri Lankan bowlers who have wilted in the face of such attacks from Maxwell and McCullum recently. AB just needs a little help from his mates.
The Match Odds*
South Africa – $1.45
Sri Lanka – $2.75
*Courtesy of Ladbrokes Australia.
The Prediction
The biggest question mark hanging over this game is the dreaded c-word. Not choke, but chase. South Africa have not won a game at this World Cup when they have been asked to chase a target. That of course leads to allegations of choking but the chasing is the bigger mental block at the moment.
Nonetheless, we’re backing the South Africans to display some better c-words today. Class, composure, confidence to name but a few, and to win the game by 40 runs or 4 wickets.
The Best Bets
Quinton de Kock is an obvious roughie to Top Score at $5.50, but his 53 tournament runs at 8.83 may put you off.
The Hashim Amla (Top Runs) / Morne Morkel (Top Wickets) double looks like great money at $16.00
Finally, a quick double up is on offer if a Sri Lankan batsman top scores in the game. That is at $2.20.
Betfair:
Bet on Henrik Stenson to become the BMW PGA Championship Winner.
Paddypower:
Back Australia to take the Ashes home with them.
Betway:
Back Rafael Nadal to become the Mens French Open Winner.
Coral:
Back One For Arthur to win the Grand National.
Bet365:
Back Mexico to win the Confederations Cup.
