We will finally get to find out whether or not Dawn Approach stays a mile and a half today. I’ve read many well-informed articles on the subject and the majority view among pedigree analysts is that he won’t. I have supported Ocovango (9-1) and Chopin (12-1) in the ante-post market and was hopeful that the ground would remain on the soft side. However, it looks as though it will be nearly good by post time.
The main supporting race looks destined to go to St Nicholas Abbey for the third year in a row. You have to admire Dunaden for his efforts in Australia but it’s hard to see him having enough speed to cope with the O’Brien horse. Having supported Chapter Seven in the ante-post market for the Royal Hunt Cup I am a bit dismayed to see him employed as a pacemaker here! It hadn’t even occurred to me that he would be given such a role. Obviously the favourite is going to be unbackable so it is a race to watch rather than bet on.
The Epsom Dash looks impossible to unravel but I’ve already put up La Fortunata as a speculative each-way bet after her fine run here last time. She has made the frame on all five previous visits to the course but this represents her toughest challenge. I’m hoping that her early speed will at least give her a sporting chance at 20-1. There are of course plenty of dangers including Ajjaad who pipped her last time. There has been a lot of money for Long Awaited from David Barron’s stable, a yard that are in cracking form at the moment.
Tim Easterby has previous winner Captain Dunne primed for another crack at this prize after an eye-catching run at Chester. He has also finished second in this race so it is no wonder he is prominent in the betting. Stable companion Confessional got no run at all last year and finished on the heels of the leaders and he too caught the eye at Chester. He was never close enough to land a blow but was not knocked about by Paul Hanagan and it would be no surprise to see him put up his best run for a while.
Looking further ahead to Sunday, the French Derby has attracted a large field with Intello put up as the early favourite. As a supporter of Ocovango, I’m interested in the chances of Bravodino who chased him home last time out. The colt is held in high regard at home and 8-1 could offer a bit of value.
Ante Post
Ocovango 9-1, Chopin 12-1 Derby
La Fortunata 20-1 Epsom Dash
Confessional 16-1 Epsom Dash William Hill
Bravodino 8-1 French Derby Paddy Power
Betfair:
Bet on Henrik Stenson to become the BMW PGA Championship Winner.
Paddypower:
Back Australia to take the Ashes home with them.
Betway:
Back Rafael Nadal to become the Mens French Open Winner.
Coral:
Back One For Arthur to win the Grand National.
Bet365:
Back Mexico to win the Confederations Cup.
