New Zealand’s chances of defending their Four Nations rugby league title are looking seriously slim after the exit of long-term coach Stephen Kearney and a heavy warm-up loss to Australia. Here’s a look at all the teams involved and their chances:
Strengths: As far as spines go, the Australian set up is incredible. Smith, Cronk, Thurston and Boyd are all NRL premiership winners, and when they play together they are nigh on impossible to get the better of.
All are consummate professionals who pride themselves on error free play, quality decision-making and high involvement. Add Greg Inglis to the mix, and it’s hard to fathom how any side will beat them.
Weaknesses: It’s very hard to find weaknesses in a squad that features the likes of the above. But in Blake Ferguson and Josh Dugan, together making up the right-hand edge of the Australian backline, they have two hot or cold players that have struggled to make an impact at test level. The duo was dreadful against the Kiwis considering the amount of ball they had, and completely failed to exploit Solomone Kata on his NZ debut.
Star Turn: At just 21 yeas of age, Cronulla Sharks flyer Valentine Holmes is only just beginning his NRL and Test career. However, the influence the fleet-footed winger can have on the tournament stretches far beyond his relative inexperience. After making a promising debut, including a try, in the warm-up match against the Kiwis, Holmes is poised to set the tournament alight with his skill and speed.
The only possible saving grace for opposition teams is if Mal Meninga can’t find room for Holmes once Josh Mansour returns to the squad after missing the warm-up match because of his wedding.
Odds: $1.60 at Palmerbet.
Predicted Finish: Australia to win it. There is just too little chance that all of them have an off game on the same day.
Strengths: Big and mobile forward packs have always been part of the Kiwis game. 2016 is no different. The Kiwis pack boasts the likes of Dally M Medal winner Jason Taumalolo, NRL Prop of the Year Jesse Bromwich, and the reliable Melbourne Storm backrowers Tohu Harris and Kevin Procter. As a result, the Kiwis should get plenty of metres and go-forward out of their big men.
Weaknesses: The warm-up loss to Australia revealed a number of chinks in the New Zealand armour.
Johnson’s fifth tackle plays have been criticised heavily. Rightfully so too; the flamboyant number 7 struggled to kick in general play, and often tried to force the issue with last tackle attacking raids that his outside men weren’t on board with.
Opposition teams will be wise to exploit the weak defence of Kenny-Dowall’s right edge (made worse with Simon Mannering’s withdrawal from the tournament), while the Kiwis back three might also struggle to gain yards deep in their own half.
Look out for Kidwell opting for young gun Te Maire Martin rather than the ineffective Lewis Brown in the utility role.
Discipline is probably worth a mention here too.
Star Turn: One of the standouts in the Kiwis warm up game was Martin Taupau. Coming off the bench, the Manly powerhouse had 129 metres for 10 carries to go with five tackle busts, to easily be New Zealand’s best on the night. Coming off the bench gives Taupau an opportunity to make a seriously meaningful impact.
Odds: $4 is the best offer on NZ, from Ladbrokes.
Predicted Finish: The Kiwis haven’t always travelled to the UK well. Most recently they lost a bilateral series in 2015. They’re also still familiarising themselves with a new coaching structure, as well as missing key players (Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Mannering). They might struggle to make the final this year. 3rd.
Strengths: New coach Wayne Bennet has a tricky task ensuring his team are equipped to compete with the Kangaroos and Kiwis. It’s made manageable playing on home soil. It’s made believable thanks to the powerful forward pack he has at his disposal. Josh Hodgson, Sam and George Burgess, James Graham and Elliot Whitehead all NRL-experienced, and all (save for George maybe) are coming off excellent seasons.
Weaknesses: Gareth Widdop’s poor year in the NRL this season could worry the hosts, however, a bigger worry is probably the lack of big game experience. They haven’t made many tournament finals of late and gave up a late last minute try to the Kiwis in the most recent World Cup. The lack of experience and big game mettle could hurt them in the key stages.
Star Turn: Take away injury and suspension, and Canberra rake Hodgson may have been the first English winner of the NRL’s prestigious Dally M Medal this season. As it was, Hodgson finished eight points behind the winners but was arguably more influential for his team’s run to the finals.
Odds: $5.50 looks great money from Bet365. LuxBet also has an option on an Australia / England final at an attractive $2.30.
Predicted Finish: 2nd.
Strengths: The ultimate underdogs will struggle to win a game in their first ever Four Nations. The squad looks too light on paper to scare any of the three heavyweights. If they are to get anywhere near, they’ll need the kicking game of former Man of Steel, Danny Brough, or the NRL expertise of Aitken, Coote, Douglas and Linnet.
Weaknesses: Not so much of a weakness as a simple reality – they are playing the three best nations in world rugby league.
Star Turn: Lachlan Coote isn’t in the powerful mould of Inglis, nor does he have the speed of a James Tedesco, but he is very clever. Essentially, he’s another half. With a tremendous short kicking game and an unparalleled rugby league brain, the Cowboys number is a tremendous boost to the tournament rookies.
Odds: Not really worth mentioning, but you’ll get 500/1 at most bookies.
Predicted Finish: Can’t see them winning a game. Last.
Four Nations kicks off this Friday, October 28th.
Betfair:
Bet on Henrik Stenson to become the BMW PGA Championship Winner.
Paddypower:
Back Australia to take the Ashes home with them.
Betway:
Back Rafael Nadal to become the Mens French Open Winner.
Coral:
Back One For Arthur to win the Grand National.
Bet365:
Back Mexico to win the Confederations Cup.
