Having spent much of the last week shovelling snow just north of the border, it is hard to believe that they are actually watering the course at Aintree ahead of this week’s Grand National meeting! The entire jumping season to date seems to have been run on soft or heavy ground and it is slightly worrying that we could even have good ground by Thursday. That can sometimes turn the form on its head but you cannot ignore Cheltenham form at this meeting.
The Grand National is obviously the highlight of the week but there is a cracking supporting cast. The Aintree Hurdle is shaping up to be an exceptional race. Oscar Whisky and Thousand Stars have battled out the finish for the past two seasons but they are up against stiff opposition this week. Countrywide Flame finished third in the Champion Hurdle with Zarkandar fourth and Grandouet falling when still going well under Barry Geraghty. The final ingredient is supplied by impressive Neptune Novices’ Hurdle winner The New One. Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies is convinced that his horse will be a leading Champion Hurdle contender next year and he has been made favourite to win here.
I have been a fan of Countrywide Flame for some time and I thought he put in a great effort behind Hurricane Fly last time. As much as I respect the opposition, I think odds of around 5-1 are an insult to John Quinn’s gelding and I fancy him to gain a well deserved success.
Sprinter Sacre is due to run over 2 1/2 miles in the Melling Chase and is up against two smart performers in Cue Card and Flemenstar. I don’t have any doubts about Sprinter Sacre proving equally effective over this distance but his odds reflect his superiority over his rivals. Unless the bookies offer some generous odds on winning distances later in the week, I think this will be a race to watch rather than bet on.
One of the banker bets of the meeting must surely be Silviniaco Conti after his desperately unlucky fall in the Gold Cup. Ruby Walsh found the seven-year-old travelling almost too well throughout the race and he must surely have given Bobs Worth something to think about if he had stood up. He flew around the Mildmay Course last season and The Betfred Bowl looks his for the taking.
Big priced winners of The Lincoln and The Irish National are timely reminders of what we could be up against when betting on the big race on Saturday. On His Own looks likely to go off favourite having won over hurdles on his only start since falling last year. Having watched the re-run of last year’s race, there is no denying that he appeared to be going as well as anything when he crashed out at Bechers second time around. My only slight worry was that he seemed to get some way behind early on. He probably wouldn’t want the ground to dry out too much but is a worthy favourite and I’m taking him to give the punters something to cheer about.
I have plenty of respect for Sunnyhillboy, Seabass and Cappa Bleu (2nd, 3rd and 4th) but they all seem to be high enough in the weights. I was most impressed with Imperial Commander’s comeback run in the Argento Chase and it must have been incredibly frustrating for connections to miss out on his run in the Gold Cup. He adds a touch of class to the race whilst Always Waining looks overpriced at 40-1 for a horse that runs a stone better at Liverpool than anywhere else. Trainer Peter Bowen is keeping an eye on the weather and could yet send him for the Topham but most bookmakers are now offering NR/no bet on the National.
Countrywide Flame 5-1 with Paddy Power
Silviniaco Conti Evens with Paddy Power
On His Own 7-1 with Bet365
Always Waining 40-1 with Paddy Power
Betfair:
Bet on Henrik Stenson to become the BMW PGA Championship Winner.
Paddypower:
Back Australia to take the Ashes home with them.
Betway:
Back Rafael Nadal to become the Mens French Open Winner.
Coral:
Back One For Arthur to win the Grand National.
Bet365:
Back Mexico to win the Confederations Cup.
