As far as betting races go, they don’t get much tougher than the Great St Wilfrid Handicap. I’ve been dipping in and out of the form book for this race since the start of the week and at times it feels as though I might as well be reading the phone book!
For a start there are 66 entries and multiple entries from many of the top northern stables. With a maximum field of 20, everything from Tax Free (8st 8lb) downwards is in danger of elimination. Given that a lot of these old sprinters race on a weekly basis, it seems safe to assume that only half a dozen or so will drop out so there is little point combing through the form of those from 30-66.
David O’Meara has won this for the last two years with Pepper Lane and has Louis The Pious and Dick Bos lined up this year. Louis The Pious seemed to need every yard of the six furlongs to win at Haydock earlier in the season so I was not surprised that he was run off his feet a bit at Goodwood. He was third last year but never looked like winning whilst Dick Bos could be in the grip of the handicapper.
David Nicholls has made a career out of these type of races and he has three in the top thirty. Just to help matters he has booked Adrian to ride all three (according to the ever-helpful Racing Post anyway). Tax Free was second last year but is now eleven years old so Summerinthecity and Rodrigo de Torres look the pick of them. Summerinthecity finished well ahead in the York race won by Tropics and I can’t see any obvious reason why he won’t run well again here.
A case has been made for several horses that were hampered in that race including the favourite Baccarat but it often pays to stick with the form in the book. Four of Kevin Ryan’s nine (yes, NINE) entries are in the top thirty, notably Zacynthus who has just joined him from Luca Cumani’s stable. This one has got to the age of five without being asked to race at a shorter distance than seven furlongs but that is what he is going to do on Saturday. He doesn’t seem to be a particularly free-going sort and I’m not convinced that he will lay up with these.
Last time out winners Lucky Beggar, Spinatrix and Head Spice don’t look exactly thrown in. Spinatrix just got the better of Pearl Ice and Nameitwhatyoulike and I prefer the last named of the three. He was dropping back to six furlongs there and could do even better if ridden with a bit of restraint. Singeur was sixth here last year and Love Island also has course form but neither seem likely to find the necessary improvement to win this.
Top weight Hoof It needs to show a little bit more to convince us that he retains his ability whilst El Viento and the Harris-trained duo of Prodigality and Secret Witness may be high enough in the handicap. By process of elimination my selections are Summerinthecity and Nameitwhatyoulike. The bookies seem to be strangely in agreement on this race. There is hardly any difference in the prices across the board on almost every runner! Hopefully this isn’t the start of a new trend.
Summerinthecity 16-1 Bet365 et al.
Nameitwhatyoulike 20-1 Bet365 et al.
Betfair:
Bet on Henrik Stenson to become the BMW PGA Championship Winner.
Paddypower:
Back Australia to take the Ashes home with them.
Betway:
Back Rafael Nadal to become the Mens French Open Winner.
Coral:
Back One For Arthur to win the Grand National.
Bet365:
Back Mexico to win the Confederations Cup.
