At the time of writing, it looks as though the rain is going to change the going to soft for Haydock’s big Saturday card and that spells danger for form students. After months of good to firm going across the country, the established form could count for little if the ground changes drastically.
One trainer who has already voiced his concern is Clive Cox, responsible for Sprint Cup favourite Lethal Force. To be fair, Lethal Force has raced on good to soft on five occasions and finished in the first two in four of those races. It is not so much a question of his not acting on it as much as how it improves the chances of some of his rivals.
I am a great fan of Garswood and have followed him with interest this season. I was surprised when Richard Fahey took the Guineas route with him as I always felt perhaps seven furlongs would be as far as he wanted to go. He was heavily backed at Goodwood on good to soft ground last time but still appeared to need every yard of the seven furlongs to come out on top. He won the Harry Rosebery Stakes in heavy ground last season so you would think the more rain the merrier for him.
Another horse that is sure to benefit from the rain is Gordon Lord Byron who has been racing over a mile. He was second here last season and, with Johnny Murtagh booked, it is hard to rule him out. Earlier in the week I recommended Heeraat at 25-1 and Hawkeyethenoo at 40-1 and both have stood their ground. The rain will help Hawkeyethenoo and I’m optimistic that he can run into a place. Garswood is still available at 6-1 and that could be a good price if the ground is deep.
The opening sprint over five furlongs features the veteran Harrison George who is going for a hat-trick with Natasha Eaton on board. She has ridden him in both of his recent victories and they seem to have bonded nicely. She’s not afraid to gee him up when he needs it and he’s won when the mud is flying. He’s got enough stamina to win over a mile so I may have to join the rain dance with Richard Fahey and co this evening!
Montiridge is starting to look like a class act and he was walking all over Tawhid before Richard Hughes let him take control at Goodwood last time. He has won on all types of surfaces and there seems no reason to desert him in the modestly-named Superior Mile.
Pallasator tops the weights and the betting on the Old Borough Cup. He is making his seasonal reappearance having missed the Ebor after a dirty scope, a race for which he had been well supported. It has been a while since Sir Mark Prescott has had a really smart horse on his hands but the vibes suggest there is a big handicap in this fellow. He has won over course and distance in heavy ground so the rain holds no fears for him. I just wonder if he may need the race to put him straight and prefer the claims of Poyle Thomas at twice the price. He battled hard to win at Newbury and, although not proven on the ground, his pedigree gives him every chance of acting on it.
Harrison George 8-1 William Hill
Montiridge 6-4 Totesport
Garswood 6-1 Ladbrokes
*Ante-post Hawkeyethenoo 40-1, Heeraat 25-1
Poyle Thomas 8-1 Bet365
Betfair:
Bet on Henrik Stenson to become the BMW PGA Championship Winner.
Paddypower:
Back Australia to take the Ashes home with them.
Betway:
Back Rafael Nadal to become the Mens French Open Winner.
Coral:
Back One For Arthur to win the Grand National.
Bet365:
Back Mexico to win the Confederations Cup.
