The whole complexion of the race has changed in the Irish Oaks after the late defection of odds-on favourite Taghrooda. Trainer John Gosden will now aim the Epsom winner at the King George & Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes at Ascot.
Punters who backed the filly down to 1-2 favourite will feel aggrieved but the decision is that of owner Sheikh Hamdan rather than Gosden’s. He also owns second favourite Tarfasha who has assumed favouritism for Dermot Weld.
There was some question as to whether or not Tarfasha would stay the mile and a half at Epsom and I am not completely convinced after her second place effort. She looked as though she would run into a clear second but was all out to get the verdict over Volume in the final stages. To my mind, Luca Cumani’s filly looks the form horse.
She was kicked on very early by Richard Hughes and all seemed to be going well until she became unbalanced in the home straight. Hughes had voiced his concerns after riding the filly to victory at Newbury and Cumani arranged a special trial run for Volume prior to the Oaks. The much flatter track at the Curragh should suit the filly much better and she looks a solid bet to be in the frame.
Aidan O’Brien provides two of the likeliest dangers in Bracelet and Marvellous, although I am worried by the former. Bracelet wore a hood for the first time at Royal Ascot and held off the late flourish of Lustrous. She had run poorly in the 1000 Guineas and clearly appreciated the mile and a half.
Marvellous looks like a soft ground filly after grinding out an unlikely victory in the Irish 1000 Guineas. Ryan Moore was at her a long way out that day and it was a surprise to me that she started favourite at Epsom. She finished a never dangerous sixth and the going has gone against her this weekend.
It is difficult to see anything else getting into this and I am hoping that Kevin Manning elects to kick on early on Volume. She does not seem to possess much in the way of acceleration but seems to lack nothing in terms of stamina.
Volume 5.45 The Curragh @11-2 Bet365
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