This Saturday sees Leicester welcoming Man City at the King Power. The Champions are in a tailspin of shocking form, seeing them currently at 16th, only four points off the bottom of the table. City comes into the game fresh from their Champions League draw with Celtic on Tuesday, and the bitter defeat to Chelsea last Saturday at the Etihad. Both teams will be desperate for 3 points from this game, and with City all scoring, all conceding machine, it seems like goals are on the menu.
City looking for a fight
City’s last game in the league was a feast of drama; a tight game with some fantastic performances was marred by some truly appalling tackles and an embarrassing brawl. Neutrals all over the country rustled their popcorn furiously as Chelsea made a clear statement of intent, putting the onus firmly on City in the fight for first place. City will need to come back strongly in the next few weeks to keep their London rivals opening up clear daylight at the top of the table. With the Champions League group stage cleared up, they will be fully focused on their Premier League fixtures.
Going into the game, the major concern for City is the suspension of arguably their two most important players, Sergio Aguero and Fernandinho. Aguero’s horror challenge on David Luiz has seen him pick up a four-match ban, with Kelechi Iheanacho being touted as a possible replacement. City will certainly suffer without his goal scoring pedigree. Fernandinho is the engine of this City squad, arguably the hardest worker on the pitch for the Blues, and a three-match ban for violent conduct will be almost as big a hole to fill as Aguero. On the bright side, they will be able to welcome Raheem Sterling back into the fold from a knee injury that has seen him out since the 26th of November. Guardiola has the option of bringing in Sterling, Leroy Sané or Nolito on Saturday. In terms of injuries, the Catalan will have to do without captain Vincent Kompany, knee ligaments, and Fabian Delph who is recovering from groin surgery. Nicolas Otamendi is also ruled out due to suspension.
Recent form, the Chelsea game aside, has been fairly solid. What is absolutely worth noting going into the Leicester game is that they have conceded in their last seven straight games in all competitions. City has been scoring and conceding with gusto, coupled with the absence of key defensive and midfield players, all the signs suggest a game with free-scoring potential.
The Champions fighting relegation
How the mighty are falling. Those brave pundits who questioned whether Leicester would be able to regain their superlative form from last season are quickly becoming vindicated. It is increasingly looking like Leicester have been found out; at one point in November they had more points in their Champions League group than in the Prem. Taking one point in the last three games has left some asking the unaskable: can Claudio Ranieri actually be sacked? Even with such great European form, qualifying top of their group with a game in hand, the question will have to be asked if the form doesn’t improve.
Looking at the last three league games, losing 2:1 away to both Sunderland and Watford, and just scraping a 2:2 draw at home to Boro, these are the teams Leicester would be turning over last season, and these are the teams they absolutely have to be beating if they want to stay clear of a relegation battle, alongside a European campaign. One clear difference between this and last season is the absence of goals from star striker Jamie Vardy. If he fails to score against City on Saturday, it will be 11 consecutive games without a goal for the 29-year-old, in a season where he’s only managed four shots on target. It’s not just Vardy falling short, PFA Player of the Year Riyad Mahrez hasn’t been the player he was, with only 3 goals and 1 assist in the league. The loss of N’Golo Kante is another key difference, a player excelling at his new club Chelsea, Leicester hasn’t found a replacement for the intensely hard working player. We wonder, perhaps, whether selling Vardy and keeping Kante might have been the more canny move. Ifs and buts.
Both teams to score
I cannot emphasise enough the BTTS potential of this game. While nothing is certain in football, the stats heavily favour this outcome. 78.6% of City’s games have been BTTS in the league so far this season, and Leicester with 71.4%, these teams are 1st and 4th in the BTTS table. Sun Bets have BTTS at 8/11, while not the best odds, a must have in any weekend acca. Man City to win and BTTS Yes at 11/5 is worth a large stake.
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