Burnley vs. Liverpool produced an early Premier League upset that few people saw coming back in August, but can Sean Dyche’s men put in a repeat performance on March 12?
Since that fateful afternoon back in August, it’s fair to say the two teams have had contrasting fortunes. While an early setback for Liverpool might have had some fans fearing the worst, 4th place after 27 games have made a place in the next Champions League look like a strong possibility. For Burnley, 14 losses and just nine wins have left them battling for mid-table mediocrity in 12th place after 27 games.
Naturally, if you’re a Burnley fan, 12th place in the Premier League ahead of teams such as Watford, Middlesbrough and defending champions Leicester City isn’t such a bad thing. However, the current state of affairs might not look so positive when you’ve got to travel to Anfield for another crack at Liverpool.
Indeed, with Jurgen Klopp seemingly over the tactical blunders that plagued the early part of Liverpool’s season, it looks as Burnley would have to produce something special to clinch another 2-0 win. Of course, the power of a previous win can’t be underestimated, especially when you consider Liverpool’s recent run hasn’t exactly been spectacular. Three losses, a draw and two wins in their last six certainly doesn’t smack of a team currently pushing Tottenham for second place in the league.
However, even with all the confidence in the world, Burnley can’t deny the facts. In 115 showdowns, Liverpool has come away with at least a point on 78 occasions, while Burnley has managed just 37 wins. Add to that, the fact The Clarets have only won one in their last six and it’s easy to see why Sun Bets has the home side as 2/9 favourites.
Of course, stats don’t mean anything when the tackles start to fly and Burnley will be hoping a dose of tough Northern resolve will see them through the match. In fact, according to manager Dyche, Joey Barton could be the man to help dish out some of the physicality his side may need to get a result on Sunday.
Prior to the match, Barton was expected to go before an FA disciplinary hearing. However, with the case postponed, Barton is eligible for selection and could prove decisive one way or another. Looking on the positive side of things, Barton will be one of the most experienced players on the pitch at 34-years-old. In games where a strong presence is needed to help overcome a skill deficit, players like Barton can often come into their own.
The counter argument to this is Barton’s discipline or, more accurately, lack of it against Liverpool. The lifelong Everton fan has never been welcomed to Anfield with open arms and it’s a dynamic that seems to bring out the beast in him. Red cards against Liverpool when he was with Manchester City and Newcastle United suggest he’s not the best at controlling his emotions at Anfield.
When you add to this the potential needle he may receive during the game because of his impending FA hearing, it looks as though Barton’s presence could hinder rather than help Burnley. Now, if you’re a neutral and simply looking for the best bets, then Barton could make things interesting. A quick look through BetVictor’s Premier League bets has Barton to receive the first card of the game at 9/1.
Along the same line, bet365 is offering an Asian betting line on the number of cards awarded in the game. Over 3.5 is currently 1.875 while the under is 1.925. Given what we know about Barton, the over on this bet looks as though it could offer some value if he does play.
But, if Barton doesn’t get the nod, then a safer option would be to focus on the ways Liverpool are going to win. Yes, Burnley has a shot at getting a result and 5/1 on the draw with Sun Bets isn’t a bad price.
However, if you really want the best chance of a return on Sunday, Sadio Mane to score first at 7/2 isn’t a bad shout with Roberto Firmino an injury doubt. Failing that, Liverpool halftime/fulltime (both at Sun Bets) isn’t a bad price.
As Premier League games go, this one looks as though it won’t produce too much unexpected drama, unless Barton is thrown into the mix. If this happens, get your red card bets ready and watch out for fireworks.
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