There are four Group 1 races on Victoria Derby Day at Flemington on Saturday including the $1million Mackinnon Stakes.
A year ago Andrew Balding’s Side Glance claimed the prize with a gutsy run, holding off Dear Demi by three-quarters of a length. The seven-year-old is rapidly becoming as well-known in Australia as he is in the UK after finishing third in the Caulfield Stakes and fourth in last week’s Cox Plate.
His run in the Cox Plate was typical in that he kept battling on when looking certain to be swamped by those finishing in behind. At the line he was barely half a length behind Aidan O’Brien’s Adelaide on the wide outside. Included in a group of eight that crossed the line within a length were Foreteller, Happy Trails and Criterion.
You could make a case for each of them but the draw has favoured Side Glance (barrier 7) while Foreteller (10) and Happy Trails (13) must come from his outside. Criterion finished second in the Caulfield Stakes but I’m not sure that barrier one will suit him. He seems to hit a flat spot in his races before running on again and he may find himself trapped on the inner. Foreteller kept responding to pressure and has to be a contender if he can get a good position from the starting gate.
He’s Your Man is bidding for a hat-trick after winning the Kingston Town Stakes and the Epsom Handicap. The six-year-old will break from barrier five and is an obvious threat while Caulfield Cup runner-up Rising Romance will also be popular with punters.
Jamie Spencer is at Santa Anita for the Breeders’ Cup this weekend so the ride on Side Glance goes to Craig Williams. He won the Mackinnon Stakes on Alcopop in 2012 and there is no better judge of pace around Flemington.
I would have fancied Roger Varian’s Farraaj to run a big race with a low draw but he is on the wide outside in barrier 15. Adelaide managed to overcome a similar handicap last week but Farraaj is much more of a free-running type and won’t be ideally suited by dropping in behind.
Mick Channon did well with Amralah to win nice races at Newbury and Haydock and he now makes his Australian debut for Robert Hickmott. His Haydock win over Hillstar reads well after the runner-up won the Grade 1 Canadian International Stakes at Woodbine. The Melbourne Cup was his intended target but he is yet to prove that he stays that distance.
Foreteller @11.0 Sportsbet
Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3
*Side Glance was withdrawn through injury
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