The “race that stops a nation” might sound clichéd, but it’s pretty close to the mark. At 3pm AEDT tomorrow (Tuesday), Australians across the expanse of the continent will stop work and either watch or listen to the AUD $6 million Emirates Melbourne Cup from Flemington in Melbourne. Even the most blasé will be quietly cheering on their Melbourne Cup betting pick from the office sweep, or the horse with a quirky name or wearing their favourite colours.
For those hoping to combine the day with the real thing, there are a staggering 42 TAB or picnic meetings scheduled – from Ascot to Alice Springs, Mount Isa to Morphettville and everywhere in between. Racing is big business in Sydney, but Royal Randwick’s biggest crowd of the year is Melbourne Cup Day. Meanwhile, the Flemington Lawn on the first Tuesday in November is one of the few places that you are likely to witness someone dressed as a horse watching the horses go by – it’s a day where anything goes trackside.
A Melbourne Cup deserves Melbourne weather
An iconic Melbourne day deserves some of the city’s unpredictable weather, with the forecast for a cool and clear morning giving way to afternoon showers with winds up to 20km/h. The latter is a major factor at Flemington – the wind sweeps up along the Maribyrnong River from nearby Port Phillip Bay. Astute jockeys know where it’s important to find cover from the wind, which was a huge factor here on Turnbull Stakes day.
There’s only been minimal rainfall since Derby Day so the track should again fall into the good (4) range and there’s unlikely to be an upgrade if it stays cool. The track raced very evenly on Saturday, so it isn’t terribly relevant that the rail remains in the true position. It also remains a day where it’s bloody tough to find a winner – the smallest fields contain 14 runners with the bulk closer to capacity.
Massive public money a boon for punters
The Melbourne Cup is unlike any other race of the year for serious punters. Public money floods into the betting pools like no other day, and the bookies are more than happy to let them get on. The favourites are almost always under the odds (as is the case with the top two, Hartnell and Jameka, this year) but there’s a stack of value on the rest of the genuine contenders.
The blanket media coverage and myriad expert opinions make it tough to stay objective, and as Prince Of Penzance showed in 2015, history can count for nothing depending on the circumstances of the day. But it would surprise if the winner did not emerge from this quartet – #9 Almoonqith ($31 with William Hill), #11 Grand Marshal ($34), #12 Jameka ($7.50) and #17 Almandin ($11). The Caulfield Cup winner Jameka just might turn out be in the class of Makybe Diva but can’t be seriously entertained at such a short quote.
Waller to end his Cup drought
Instead, Grand Marshal looks the bulletproof pick. Trainer Chris Waller presides over the dominant stable in the country, but the nation’s biggest prize has so far eluded him. He left Flemington gutted after Preferment fell short last year, but was buoyant after his Moonee Valley Cup (2500m) quinella of Grand Marshal and Who Shot Thebarman. His seven-year-old gelding also won the Sydney Cup (3200m) over the stablemate in the autumn, and he’s had a generously spaced prep heading into his grand final. Notably, Grand Marshal missed his planned lead-up run in the Geelong Cup due to administrative oversight, which will make a nice headline for the local sub-editors should he pinch the ultimate prize in Australian racing. Good luck punters!
Betfair:
Bet on Henrik Stenson to become the BMW PGA Championship Winner.
Paddypower:
Back Australia to take the Ashes home with them.
Betway:
Back Rafael Nadal to become the Mens French Open Winner.
Coral:
Back One For Arthur to win the Grand National.
Bet365:
Back Mexico to win the Confederations Cup.
