We had to settle for second place in both of the big Christmas features with Dynaste (King George 8-1) and Benvolio (Welsh National 14-1). The show moves on to Newbury on Monday with a decent card featuring the Challow Hurdle and the Mandarin Chase.
The Grade 1 Challow Hurdle has attracted a top quality field with the more established novices Blaklion, Parlour Games and Vyta Du Roc taken on by Arpege D’Alene. It should be close between Parlour Games and Blaklion on Cheltenham form but I am going to take a chance on the lightly-raced Arpege D’Alene. It looked a decent race that he won decisively at Ascot last month despite drifting out to 12-1. This will obviously be a tougher test but Newbury is one of the fairest tracks in the country and he can spring a surprise.
The Mandarin Chase can go the way of Alan King’s Ziga Boy who beat Silver Commander at Wincanton last time out. That was only the sixth start of his career so there is plenty of scope for improvement and a 9lbs rise may not stop him. The main danger is probably the consistent Knockranrawley.
Morito Du Berlais will have plenty of supporters after finishing third in a hot race at Haydock last time. He did not hurdle with any great fluency up the home straight so it was no disgrace to finish less than three lengths behind On Tour. I am going to oppose him with Wincanton winner Polamco who showed signs of inexperience before drawing clear of Muckle Roe. He has also gone up in the handicap but receives 7lbs from the Nicholls runner and that could prove significant.
The handicap chase at 1.05 is going to take some sorting out but I’m siding with Phone Home who should have won here last time out. He held a good lead at the last but lost concentration in front and allowed Bertie Boru to get up and beat him. I expect Brendan Powell to hold on to him a little longer this time before delivering his challenge.
Nicky Henderson can land a first and last race double with Top Notch and Clean Sheet. Both are exciting additions to the powerful Lambourn yard and have Cheltenham aspirations. Top Notch won both of his races in France comfortably while Clean Sheet was only beaten through fitness at Sandown last time out. Nicholls can also complete a double on the day with Far West in the 2.45 after a couple of promising efforts over fences.
Top Notch 12.30 @10-11 Paddy Power
Phone Home 1.05 @5-1 Paddy Power
Ziga Boy 1.35 @5-2 Ladbrokes
Arpege D’Alene 2.10 @6-1 Ladbrokes
Far West 2.45 @9-4 Bet365
Polamco 3.15 @5-1 Coral
Clean Sheet 3.50 @10-11 Paddy Power
Betfair:
Bet on Henrik Stenson to become the BMW PGA Championship Winner.
Paddypower:
Back Australia to take the Ashes home with them.
Betway:
Back Rafael Nadal to become the Mens French Open Winner.
Coral:
Back One For Arthur to win the Grand National.
Bet365:
Back Mexico to win the Confederations Cup.
