John Gosden has simplified matters regarding the November Handicap by announcing the sale of the prolific winner Thomas Hobson to go jumping. He will now join the all-powerful Mullins stable and you wouldn’t bet against him making the grade in that sphere. That reduces Gosden’s entry to the top two in the handicap on Saturday, Aiken and Lahaag.
Aiken has not shown his true form this season whilst Lahaag bounced back with a win at York last time out. That was his first venture over a mile and a half and he responded to a patient ride from Paul Hanagan to swoop late. It is true that he has failed to trouble the judge twice at Doncaster but I wouldn’t read too much into that and he must have a decent chance.
I have been singing the praises of William Haggas all season for his excellent record in the big handicaps and he runs Conduct here. This one has the right profile for a race like this having started life with Sir Michael Stoute and being very lightly raced. He has had just two outings for Haggas, possibly needing the first one after a year off the track and then running third here over a mile and a quarter. Seb Sanders is booked and this likeable grey could well start favourite.
Of course there are plenty of possibilities for this end-of-season lottery but I can’t help but think Communicator is overpriced at 20-1. He was second here last year for Andrew Balding and is now running off a 3lbs lower mark. It is true that he has not been at his best but he could just have been saved for this and he is too good to ignore at the available price.
The Queen’s Border Legend is another one with scope for improvement and came from well off the pace to win at Nottingham. I felt the leaders went off much too fast that day so he may have been slightly flattered by that victory and he also has to prove that he stays.
I’ll take the 20-1 Communicator and 7-1 about Conduct and hope that neither is drawn out in the car park!
Communicator 20-1 Bet365, Coral
Conduct 7-1 Skybet, William Hill
Betfair:
Bet on Henrik Stenson to become the BMW PGA Championship Winner.
Paddypower:
Back Australia to take the Ashes home with them.
Betway:
Back Rafael Nadal to become the Mens French Open Winner.
Coral:
Back One For Arthur to win the Grand National.
Bet365:
Back Mexico to win the Confederations Cup.
