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NBA Futures Betting: Predicting the NBA Champion in a Historically Open Season and How the Odds are in Your Favour (for once)

In the first part of an NBA Championship betting series, we examine the massive opportunities in this historically open NBA season. Today, we look at two Western Conference monsters with excellent odds: The Portland Trailblazers and Oklahoma City Thunder.

February 11, 2015

Of the three major American sports leagues, the NBA is easiest for predicting a champion. Both the NFL and Major League Baseball produce unheralded Cinderella champions at a far higher rate than the NBA ever has.

In part, this is because the NBA has featured an incredible number of repeat champions in the past 30 years. Going back to 1985, over a third of all NBA seasons have produced a repeat champion (1988, 1990, 1992, 1993, 1995, 1997, 1998, 2001, 2002, 2010 and 2013). That is a whopping number of mini dynasties, resulting in very few seasons where it was truly a wide open contest.

However, the current NBA season is precisely that: WIDE OPEN. Nobody knows who is going to win. No teams stand clearly above the rest. There are 10-12 excellent teams, all contenders in their own ways, all with flaws and yet, all carrying a genuine shot at glory.

This has made NBA futures betting all the more exciting and crucially, potentially profitable.

In the past, teams ranked outside of the consensus top three or four had little real chance of winning. Regrettably, these were also the teams that brought the best semi-long shot odds that could trigger a potentially large payout. It’s tempting to make a bet based on favourable odds but the truth is, the 5-10 ranked teams almost never win in the NBA. They are often mirages attached to long odds that never carried any real weight.

This year is completely different, and the 5-10 range looks more like opportunity knocking. That’s because there are no clear-cut favourites and no elite class of three or four teams. No, this season the elite class is ten-deep, which means the longer odds at 5-10 look nothing like a mirage. They look juicy as hell.

We will take a look at some of the more tempting odds available in NBA Futures betting in the following fortnight. Today, let’s take a look at two Western Conference powerhouses as an example of how the odds are now in your favour:

The Portland Trailblazers:

They have two terrifying All-Stars, a great team structure, a rabid fan base, fantastic experience, depth and coaching combined with stability in their roster. Currently, they are fourth in the insanely and historically competitive Western Conference leading into mid-February. They are real contenders in every sense of the word.

And yet, they are ranked around 12^th in NBA Championship odds at a whopping and highly intriguing 30-1! That means $100 will net you $3,000 if you place your bet today.

To put this into perspective, the betting favourites are the Golden State Warriors at 4-1 odds. A $100 bet would get you $400 if the Warriors win, but the same bet will net you $3,000 if the Trailblazers win.

That is a hefty gap in potential payout, and yet there is very little to separate the two teams in reality. The Warriors are better, sure. But not by THAT much. Portland is a very tempting bet because the potential payout doesn’t quite reflect how good this team is.

The Oklahoma City Thunder:

They were the consensus preseason favourites to win the West and for good reason. When you have two of the eight best players in the game, you’re going to be fine. They have also, crucially, been to the Finals (and lost) recently. That experience, in addition to going deep into the playoffs every season means that OKC knows how to handle playoff pressure. With two superstar closers in Durant and Westbrook, there is no team in the NBA that likes to play the Thunder.

Early season injuries to their All-Star tandem completely derailed OKC’s season. Combined with a surging Western Conference, OKC isn’t even in the playoffs leading into the All-Star break.

However, injury aside, not only is OKC a lock to recover and make the playoffs, they are likely to go deep as they usually do. Beneath all the injuries (which are behind them now), they are the actual and symbolic top team in the West.

Normally, this means their chances of winning the championship should be closer to Golden State’s 4-1 odds. And yet, OKC is currently ranked at around 7^th in the odds chart at a juicy 10-1 payout.

Assuming OKC is actually OKC again come playoff time (and most observers think they will be), that means you can place a bet today with 10-1 odds that is, in reality, a 4-1 bet. Should OKC win the title in June, that’s a bet that pays over twice as much as it should have in normal circumstances.

If these two teams and their odds of winning sounds too good to be true, then welcome to the 2014-2015 NBA season. This is the one year in recent memory where the league’s contenders list is ten-strong.

Usually, the 5-10 section of ranked teams is an oasis in the desert; you only see what you want to see. This year? That oasis is real, and some lucky folks are going to have a lot of fun drinking at the water’s edge.

Related posts:

NBA Playoffs Futures Betting: A Final Look at the Eastern Conference NBA Championship Race NBA Futures Betting: Are the Atlanta Hawks For Real? A Look at their Odds and their Case for the Unlikeliest of NBA Titles NBA Playoffs Futures Betting: Do the Houston Rockets have a chance to win the NBA Finals, or will a fading Dwight Howard be their undoing? NBA Futures Betting: Which of the Two Consensus Favourites Will Win the NBA Title?