To say the lead-up to the 2016 Japan Cup has been dramatic would be an understatement. The Fukushima prefecture, which faced the brunt of the 2011 tsunami that killed nearly 16,000 people, was again struck by a series of earthquakes – thankfully, without injury or damage. Then on Thursday, a freak snowstorm ahead of forecast weekend rain had punters scurrying for their formguides ahead of Sunday’s 36th running of the Japan Cup at Tokyo Racecourse. It was the first measurable November snowfall in Tokyo in 54 years.
This is without a doubt one of the most prestigious races on the face of the planet. The Japan Racing Association established the Japan Cup (2400 metres) as an international invitational race in order for local racehorses to have the opportunity to compete against horses of an international calibre. That philosophy has been franked time and time again with winners from the host nation, North America, Britain, Australia, New Zealand, Ireland, France, Germany and Italy.
However, it’s been a decade since the internationals have emerged successful (Alkaased in 2005), a period during which Gentildonna became the only multiple winner of the race (2012-13). The prize money isn’t too shabby either, with a staggering purse of ¥624 million (about USD $5.5 million) on offer. The race starts in front of the main grandstand at Fuchu which, on a clear day, also affords a stunning view of Mount Fuji. The sweeping course includes an uphill climb in the long stretch run, which has helped produce some thrilling finishes over the past 35 years.
Wet conditions favour internationals
The prospect of heavy rain appears a dream come true for the connections of German invitee Iquitos, one of three foreign entrants in the 17-horse field. Two of Iquitos’ best performances have come on wet tracks. The four-year-old Adlerflug colt won the Grosser Preis von Baden (GI) on soft going on September 4, defeating one of Sunday’s rivals, Nightflower, by 2.75 lengths. Two races earlier he finished second behind 2014 Melbourne Cup (G1) winner Protectionist in the Grosser Hansa Preis (G2) at Hamburg on heavy turf. He’s still a tasty 33-1 with Paddy Power.
Nightflower, a four-year-old filly by Dylan Thomas, faces the prospect of rain and barrier 15. Trainer Peter Schiergen said his filly would prefer firm ground and a starting position better than last year’s No. 18, which produced an 11th-place finish. Also back for another shot at the region’s richest race is the French-trained four-year-old Dubawi colt Erupt. He finished sixth in last year’s Japan Cup and comes to this race fresh after a victory in the Pattison Canadian International (G1) at Woodbine on October 16 for trainer Francis-Henri Graffard. However, all of Erupt’s best performances have also been on good to firm turf. In his only outing on soft going, he finished last of nine in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud (G1) in July.
Strong local contingent
Those visitors all have to contend with a typically impressive line-up of local contenders featuring Dubai Turf winner Real Steel, Tenno Sho (Spring) winner Kitasan Black, 2015 Arima Kinen victor Gold Actor and three-year-old Dee Majesty, winner of this year’s Satsuki Sho or (Japanese 2000 Guineas). Real Steel has not won in two starts since Dubai but finished second behind Maurice in his most recent start. Maurice, who would have been well regarded in this race, instead is being prepared for Hong Kong. Real Steel, a four-year-old colt by Deep Impact, is reunited with jockey Ryan Moore, who piloted him in the Dubai win. Alarmingly for the locals, most of them have never raced on worse-than-good surfaces and of the bulk which has, they’ve failed. However, it’s not unreasonable to think that sheer talent will ensure at least one of the Japanese horses will cut through the slop to victory. The best placed looks Kitasan Black (4/1 with Paddy Power). He has finished in the money in his past seven, four of them top level, four of them wins and two at the top level. He’s also proven at distances from 1800 to 3000 metres.
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