We are well into the second half of the 2016-17 Premier League season. This is easily long enough to know which teams are likely to be relegated. Half of the teams in the bottom six have changed their manager recently but history tells us that this tactic doesn’t always work.
The latest Premier League odds are quite revealing in who is likely to go down. Sunderland currently is 1-5 to be relegated. A combination of their current situation and the fact that David Moyes seems once again to be a manager out of his depth are the reasons behind why the bookies think Sunderland are doomed.
Given how most teams sack their manager as an act of desperation at some stage then it will be no surprise to see David Moyes get sacked if Sunderland doesn’t start winning soon. There is only so much that a new manager can do. If a team lacks overall Premier League quality then that team will struggle to survive. In some instances, it can be the manager’s fault or the fault of the players that don’t fancy a relegation scrap.
Can Someone “do a Leicester”
We can all remember the miraculous escape that Leicester City performed under Nigel Pearson the season before they won the title. The fact is that we only remember Leicester’s great escape because it happens so rarely. A team may ultimately avoid the drop but when they lack quality, they are simply incapable of shooting up the league in the second half of the season. The end result is they stay in the bottom six all the way until the final few days of the season.
What may surprise a few people is how Hull City are 1-4 to be relegated but Crystal Palace who is currently on the same points total are 13-8. This can only be because of Sam Allardyce becoming the new Palace manager and his great record of helping teams to avoid the drop. Generally speaking, what happens in the past is not guaranteed to happen again in the future which makes those odds wrong. Clubs hire “Big Sam” because they see it as a “get out of jail” card when they are in relegation trouble. The question is will the luck run out for Big Sam?
Which Teams are Likely to Survive
Let’s turn this equation on its head by looking at which teams are likely to survive. Based on the situation as it stands, any team not in the bottom six will likely stay up. This means teams like Watford, Burnley and Bournemouth will still be Premier League teams next season. It seems incredible that last season’s champions are on the list of relegation candidates. Leicester needs to start picking up points. They are still some way short of the points total they need.
Paul Clement seems to be reviving Swansea City’s fortunes of late. They are now 11/10 to survive with Betfred after being odds on just a few weeks ago. A big factor that needs to be considered is the fixture list. The teams that have a tough finish to the season really need to start picking up points within the next few weeks if they are to stand any chance of surviving.
The one saving grace for all of the teams in the bottom six is in how the other candidates are failing to pick up points on a regular basis. This makes it tough to call on who will likely stay up and who will likely disappear through the relegation trap door.
Betfair:
Bet on Henrik Stenson to become the BMW PGA Championship Winner.
Paddypower:
Back Australia to take the Ashes home with them.
Betway:
Back Rafael Nadal to become the Mens French Open Winner.
Coral:
Back One For Arthur to win the Grand National.
Bet365:
Back Mexico to win the Confederations Cup.
