The big day has finally arrived and it’s time to take on the bookies at Royal Ascot! Our ante-post portfolio isn’t looking too bad on paper. Chapter Seven remains our only outright loss after his withdrawal from the Hunt Cup but we will be refunded even if Dance And Dance doesn’t make the cut.
I’ve snapped up early prices about three runners in the opening Queen Anne Stakes with Aljamaaheer (33-1), Gregorian (51-1) and Sovereign Debt (16-1). Just one of them placed will cover us and I’m still of the opinion that Animal Kingdom is far from a certainty. However, there’s no harm in covering your back so I’m going to take up Corals enhanced odds treble on Animal Kingdom, Shea Shea and Dawn Approach at 14-1. I personally can’t see them all winning but it’s a fair insurance policy. I don’t want to be the only one crying into my beer whilst Channel 4 are telling us how the bookies have taken a beating!
I am similarly placed in the sprint with Reckless Abandon (7-1), Kingsgate Native (14-1) and Spirit Quartz (27-1) running for team Betcirca! I think the value has gone from the market leaders so I’ll just let this one run.
The third race has not gone to plan having taken 2-1 about Magician before his minor knock. He’s now out to 11-4 but O’Brien wouldn’t be running him unless he was confident he was 100%. I still think Mars will make up into a decent colt and he will benefit from Leitir Mor setting a decent gallop for Dawn Approach. I’m going to have a little each-way on Mars.
One thing about Ascot is that it is the only meeting of the year bar Cheltenham where you can get massive odds about top class horses. Take a look at the Betfair price of George Vancouver. Where else would you get 132-1 about a Breeders’ Cup winner? Yes, I know his form this season is dire but he looked a rattling good colt last year and I can’t leave him out whilst supporting the other O’Brien horses.
Hopefully we will still be going strongly by race four when they line up for the Coventry. O’Brien and Hannon have carved up this race between them in recent years with nine victories and they have three runners each (just to make things simple!). I’m going to take a stab on War Command being overpriced at 14-1 whilst I also like Riverboat Springs at 11-1. The latter covered half of the Epsom downs before realising what it was all about in the Woodcote Stakes and he will be better running in a straight line.
Everyone is hoping that Tiger Cliff can win the Ascot Stakes so that we can get another rendition of three cheers for Sir Henry. There is a very good chance of that happening but I just wonder if this one has the stamina? I liked the run of Mubaraza behind him at Newmarket and I’m hoping Justification will run well to further boost the claims of Simenon in the Gold Cup. Both horses endured terrible traffic problems at the Roodeye.
By the time we get to the closing Windsor Castle Stakes I may have enough crumpled ante-post slips to start a small bonfire but I’m hoping that isn’t the case. My tip here has to be the American raider Ogermeister. Can it really be four years since Wesley Ward’s two-year-olds were making our youngsters look like donkeys? This one won by six lengths at Belmont Park but who knows how that will compare to York or Sandown? At 7-1 it’s worth taking a chance.
Looking to later on in the week, I am going to add Biographer (40-1) to my Gold Cup team. Whilst studying the video of Tiger Cliff’s race I noticed he was tenderly handled and looked full of running at the end. He may have a bit to find on official ratings but it wouldn’t take more than 7 or 8lbs improvement to see him in the frame.
Royal Ascot Day 1
2.30 Ante-Post Aljamaaheer 33-1, Gregorian 51-1, Sovereign Debt 16-1
3.05 Ante-Post Reckless Abandon 7-1, Kingsgate Native 14-1, Spirit Quartz 27-1
3.45 Ante-Post Magician 2-1.
Mars 12-1 Bet Victor
George Vancouver 132-1 Betfair
4.25
Riverboat Springs 11-1 Boylesports
War Command 14-1 Boylesports
5.00
Justification 7-1 William Hill
Mubaraza 12-1 888Sport
5.35
Ogermeister 7-1 William Hill
Special bet – Animal Kingdom, Shea Shea, Dawn Approach 14-1 Coral
Gold Cup
Biographer 40-1 Skybet
Betfair:
Bet on Henrik Stenson to become the BMW PGA Championship Winner.
Paddypower:
Back Australia to take the Ashes home with them.
Betway:
Back Rafael Nadal to become the Mens French Open Winner.
Coral:
Back One For Arthur to win the Grand National.
Bet365:
Back Mexico to win the Confederations Cup.
