In a shortened pre-Origin week only eight teams get to flex their considerable bulk. For many of them however, they’ll be without their leaders, their talisman and their original representatives. North Queensland are affected badly with the loss of Thurston, and the Broncos lose a handful of players, but every team loses at least one player apart from the Raiders.
There are also plenty of injury concerns in the Queensland camp, so look out for some late changes to the final 17’s.
Let’s take a closer look at the four Round 11 matchups:
South Sydney Rabbitohs v Parramatta Eels
Rabbitohs – $1.47
Eels – $2.75
Greg Inglis and Will Hopoate are the two who miss out on Friday night’s opener due to origin. It would be tidy to argue that the absences cancel each other out, but Inglis (even in his current patchy form) is a better footballer than Hopoate, thus is the bigger loss to his side.
Having said that, the Rabbitohs have the quality around the rest of the paddock to make it up. Alex Johnston who was unlucky to miss out to Hopoate in the first instance will shift to fullback with Joel Reddy filling ion the wing. In other team changes Jason Clark is back, and Michael Maguire has named a six strong bench, probably to assess Grevsmuh fitness after head knocks in his past two games.
John Folau gets a game on the wing for the Eels and Junior Paulo also returns via the interchange for the injured Isaac De Gois.
Souths were strong in the second half against the Storm last week, and although they miss Adam Reynolds dearly, will probably have too much quality for the plucky Eels.
As an aside, we’ll be surprised if Luke Kelly gets the kicking duties for Parramatta again.
Rabbitohs 1-12.
Wests Tigers v North Queensland Cowboys
Tigers – $1.45
Cowboys – $2.75
The Cowboys form has been scintillating over the past few weeks. A major reason for the surge has been Thurston (and James Tamou, and Matt Scott, and Michael Morgan), who leaves needing big Origin series, but also leaves his team in an almighty hole.
Solid but unspectacular names like Ray Thompson, Rory Kostjasyn, Glenn Hall and Kelepi Tanginoa help fill the void, if such a statement could even be contemplated. Jason Taumalolo is rumoured to be close to a return in some positive news for Paul Green.
Ball playing will be the major problem for the Cowboys, which is completely unique to them in this match up given the undeniable skill of the Tigers’ halves pairing of Luke Brooks and Mitchell Moses. Robbie Farah is obviously a blow, but Jason Taylor has been gearing them up for this by resting the workhorse over the opening rounds.
Taking over from Farah is Dene Halatau, while Matt Lodge starts in the front row for Aaron Woods.
An Origin round is always worth an upset, so we’ll pick it for this one. Tigers 1-12 (although it’s not a massive upset as they are favourites with the bookies).
Canberra Raiders v Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs
Raiders – $1.45
Bulldogs – $2.75
The 2015 surprise packet Raiders will feel comfortable at home knowing they won’t face Hodkinson, Morris, Jackson and Klemmer on Sunday at GIO Stadium. In contrasting situations, the Raiders are unchanged while the Bulldogs are badly Origin-affected.
That points to a Raiders win – leveraging off barnstorming recruits Iosia Soliola and Frank-Paul Nuuausala. Throw Josh Papali (who was unlucky to miss out on selection too) and you have a damaging forward unit that should prove too much for the new look Bulldogs. Especially if James Graham is scratched as he is expected to be.
The Raiders always bring the excitement, so expect plenty of points and a Raiders win by 13+.
Newcastle Knights v Brisbane Broncos
Knights – $1.50
Broncos – $2.60
The relatively unaffected (Beau Scott the exception) Knights are expected to be too strong for the Broncos at home on Monday night. Still without Jarrod Mullen the Knights’ superior home record is the reason behind their strong favouritism, but we think this will be anything but one-sided.
Yes, the Broncos lose so much grunt when Parker, Thaiday, Gillett, McQuire leave, and they lose x-factor when Boyd and Hodges join the Queensland camp. However, their halves pairing that now have 10 rounds under their belt are unaffected. Hunt and Milford (throw in Kahu too) have the makings to be a handy combination and can still win games on their own.
That’s what I am expecting them to do. And by 13+ points too.
This Week’s Mutli
Head to Head @ $8.03
Margin @ $155.91
Betfair:
Bet on Henrik Stenson to become the BMW PGA Championship Winner.
Paddypower:
Back Australia to take the Ashes home with them.
Betway:
Back Rafael Nadal to become the Mens French Open Winner.
Coral:
Back One For Arthur to win the Grand National.
Bet365:
Back Mexico to win the Confederations Cup.
