October in Melbourne means having sunscreen and thermal underwear at the ready as anything can happen weather-wise, and the Caulfield Guineas is no exception.
On the eve of the first million-dollar race of the Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival – the AUD $1 million Ladbrokes Caulfield Guineas (1600m) – the Caulfield track is rated a good (3), but cooler conditions and showers are forecast prior to the first race.
Expect the track to remain in the good (3-4) range, while the rail will be in the true position for the 10-race card. Fingers crossed, the track should provide an even chance for on-pace and run-on horses.
Good medicine for the Guineas
Punters couldn’t scribble the name of Kiwi gelding Sacred Elixir into their black books quick enough after his stirring win in the Guineas Prelude (1400m) here two weeks ago. Parked off the speed by Damian Lane, he gathered the leaders up with ease.
Yes, Impending’s win in the Stan Fox (1500m) at Rosehill rated stronger, but there are two knocks on the Godolphin colt – he’s drawn in 10 and is making his first start at Caulfield, which has brought better horses undone than this promising Lonhro colt. A total of 11 of the past 14 winners have come from single digit gates.
Thousand reasons to stick with Foxplay
The sheer weight of numbers should mean at least one of the Sydney-siders pinches the AUD $500,000 Schweppes Thousand Guineas for the 3yo fillies, and it’s hard to find a knock against Chis Waller’s eye-catching filly Foxplay.
She cruised home in the G2 Furious (1200m) at Randwick before finding a hole late to dart through to take out the G2 Tea Rose (1400m) three weeks ago. With Hugh Bowman aboard and the perfect draw from barrier 5, the $3.70 available on William Hill still offers about half a point of value. Fellow Sydney horse Global Glamour looks a logical pick for the quinella.
Winx, and you’ll miss it
In 1939, Ajax was sent out a 1-40 (or $1.025) favourite to win the Rawson Stakes at Rosehill. He faced just two rivals – Spear Chief and Allunga. The former duly ended Ajax’s hopes of a 19th successive win in what is widely recognised as the greatest upset in Australian turf history.
Does Winx face a similar fate in the G1 $600,000 Caulfield Stakes? Almost certainly not. One of the mare’s rivals, Black Heart Bart, has already captured a pair of G1s this spring (and both at Caulfield) but is untried over 2000m, while He Or She’s connections are assured $54,000 for third. From a betting perspective, best to watch this one.
Strike on the counter
In contrast to the Caulfield Stakes, the field for the G1 $500,000 Toorak Handicap is stacked with value. Four of the past five winners have come through the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes and have been third-up. Counterattack was the beaten favourite in that race but stuck on nicely and can easily bounce back here.
He’s Our Rokkii is a deserved favourite, but the inside draw this late in the day isn’t the best spot to be. In contrast, Counterattack will jump from gate 8 with the country’s best jockey James McDonald aboard for Chris Waller.
Betfair:
Bet on Henrik Stenson to become the BMW PGA Championship Winner.
Paddypower:
Back Australia to take the Ashes home with them.
Betway:
Back Rafael Nadal to become the Mens French Open Winner.
Coral:
Back One For Arthur to win the Grand National.
Bet365:
Back Mexico to win the Confederations Cup.
