The Scottish National is always a tricky race to call. It comes so soon after the Aintree Grand National that it is rare for a horse from that event to be able to perform at its best. It also leaves us in the dark as far as running plans are concerned but it seems as though Paul Nicholls intends to run top weight Tidal Bay.
He was unlucky to exit the National last week but went on to make his presence felt when steering Across The Bay out of the race. Nicholls reasons that he has not had a hard race but he still has to concede a lot of weight. Perhaps more significantly, he keeps the weights compressed for everything else in the race including stable companion Sam Winner.
Sam Winner suffered a very severe injury a couple of seasons ago and looked unlikely to race again. It is to his credit that he has come back well enough to rank highly in the novice chase division this season. I gave him an each-way chance in the RSA Chase and he travelled well for a long way before weakening. Back in handicap company, he could be interesting. The RSA Chase form was not covered in glory at Aintree last week but I blame the different track for O’Faolains Boy’s poor effort and expect to see him back to his best next season.
One horse that did not make the Aintree line up was Alan King’s Godsmejudge. The trainer felt that he was just not quite ready for it and he has decided to come back here to attempt to repeat last year’s victory. In terms of the handicap, he is only 6lbs higher than when winning so impressively last season. It is difficult to be too confident about a horse that has not managed to complete in his last two races but there were mitigating circumstances.
The stable were well below par when he pulled up at Sandown and perhaps he just took a long time to get over the virus. We will soon know our fate as he usually travels quite nicely in his races and struck for home a long way out last year. He is certainly worth an each-way interest at 20-1 for a course and distance winner.
The race could be turned on its head if Tidal Bay comes out so we will watch the final declarations with interest.
Sam Winner at 11-1 Sportingbet
Godsmejudge at 20-1 Bet365
Betfair:
Bet on Henrik Stenson to become the BMW PGA Championship Winner.
Paddypower:
Back Australia to take the Ashes home with them.
Betway:
Back Rafael Nadal to become the Mens French Open Winner.
Coral:
Back One For Arthur to win the Grand National.
Bet365:
Back Mexico to win the Confederations Cup.
