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HONG KONG RACING SATURDAY MARCH 21
SHA TIN
Hong Kong Wrap Up
Fantastic racing last Sunday with 4 on top selections getting up and seven out of the 10 races producing exactas on the selections when boxed. Amazing win by Able Friend in the Cup race. Don’t know if he will get a chance at the world stage but if he does watch out as he is certainly something special. The owners love him heaps and it may take a bit of persuading to get him to part from Hong Kong and how can you be more impressed by the win by Luger in the Derby. He was our on top selection and left nothing else a chance over the concluding stages. More to our home stats and our best value selection of the day is running along at just over a 65% e/w strike rate and returning a profit or just over the 60% mark. Stick with them as well as the boxed exacta’s and not only will you have heaps of fun you will do extremely well over the course of the season.
Track and Conditions: Turf C+3 Course. All on the turf with the exception of races and 4 which will be on the All Weather Dirt Track. Track currently rated as Good on both surfaces.
Expected Weather: Cloudy but there will be sunny intervals. Visibility will be relatively low but should not impact on the running of the races. A top temperature of 23 degrees and wind will be from the east to northeast up to and around the 30Kh/m.
Best Bet: Race 10 No 1 Packing Pins
Best Value: Race 2 No 1 Art of Success
Best Exotic Races: Race No 7-8-9-10
Quaddie:-
Race 7: 9-11-8-5 Race 8: 11-2-9 Race 9: 1-9-11-4-12 Race 10: 5
Race 1: — Time: 5.00am GMT—Distance: 1800m—Class 5
Top Pick: No 6 Bachelor Dragon
Value Selection: 8 My Cup Overflows
Exotic Inclusions: No 1 Gold Tartini and No 14 All My Benefit
Race Overview
Very ordinary field to kick of the card today so would not be getting too involved here however Joao has had the pick of the rides once again and when you look at the form well I suppose Dragon Bachelor after dropping back in class recently has to be a reasonable chance here. Hard to go past in this field even though he has not won this season. Does look weighted at his best but should run well just the same in this field. My Cup Overflows Should get a nice on paced run after coming up with the inside draw here. Has fairly good early gate speed which should allow him to sit in a forward position here. This may very well develop into a sit and sprint race which will certainly assist on paced runners.
Race 2: — Time: 5.30am GMT—Distance: 1200m—Class 4
Top Pick: No 6 E-Super
Value Selection: No 1 Art of Success
Exotic Inclusions: No 10 Gallant Rock and No 2 Sunshine Glory
Race Overview
E-Super has been in Hong Kong for a while now and missed a bit of track work with a leg injury but has trialled well since then. This three year old may very well have some promise going on those trials and it would not surprise to see him go very close here. Art of Success Recently dropped back to class four and went well on the first occasion but was bumped from pillar to post last start and as a result was eased out of it. Comes up with a very nice draw in gate 13 which is right on the rails down this 1000m straight today. Should jump well and with Zac Purton in the saddle is certainly expected to put in a good performance here.
Race 3: — Time: 6.00am GMT—Distance: 1400m—Class 4
Top Pick: No 8 Goldweaver
Value Selection: No 10 Jun Hao
Exotic Inclusions: No 5 Fantasticife and No 4 Rising Power / No 2 Optimational Star
Race Overview
Goldweaver is another Zac Purton mount and even though this does look like a very ordinary class five I do expect he will run well on recent form. Always seams to be in the firing line and should get a nice trail from gate 4 today. Still looks well weighted at 125Lbs and certainly has to be a bit of a chance here. Jun Hao has never been too far away in most of his runs since coming to Hong Kong and looking at his last three starts he has to be an inclusion here at each way odds. Very open here with the exotic inclusions all having a chance as well.
Race 4: — Time: 6.30am GMT—Distance: 1600m—Class 4
Top Pick: No 10 Modern Fortune
Value Selection: No 2 Easy Success
Exotic Inclusions: No 7 Glorious Avenue and No 3 Hurry Hurry Up / No 8 Jade Pippo.
Race Overview
Modern Fortune ran a pretty good race last start with the same weight he has today and comes up with the rails draw once again. He looks a solid chance here but he may be a bit unders with Joao Moreira in the saddle. Easy Success just gets in ok at barrier 7 and has been fairly consistent recently at this class and does look to be a nice chance once again today. Weighted at his best but he does have Brett Prebble in the saddle who is the master of the weave so he should be able to be well placed in the running. Appeals as a bit of a chance here at nice each way odds.
Race 5: — Time: 7.00am GMT—Distance: 1800m—Class 3
Top Pick: No 8 Ah Bo
Value Selection: No 11 Kids and Win
Exotic Inclusions: No 3 Heroic Guru and No 13 Victoria Charter
Race Overview
Ah Bo has never been very far away and gets a chance to break his Hong Kong duck here. Drew a bit wide last start but still closed off well. Draws in a bit closer today and carries the same weight. Retains Joao Moreira in the saddle who has had a couple of rides on him now and been close. Should get a nice trail in the running as well. Kids and Win has been at this class previously and dropped back to class five and picked up a couple of very nice wins. Still gets into this well weighted and has to be a bit of a chance here as he will trot around with 118Lbs on his back and retains the same hoop. But it is an open class four just the same.
Race 6: — Time: 7.00am GMT—Distance: 1200m—Class 3
Top Pick: No 2 Country Melody
Value Selection: No 1 Dane Patrol
Exotic Inclusions: No 5 Beauty Kingdom and No 10 No Money No Talk
Race Overview
Just have to love these 1000m sprints at Sha Tin. Country Melody has only had the four starts in Hong Kong and won his first two. Went up in the weights as a result of that but has still been very consistent just the same and does appeal as another very good chance today. Drawn a bit better than mid field which is not too bad and of course he has Joao Moreira in the saddle. Dane Patrol is an eight year old now but is still sprinting in great fashion. Went very close last start with Jack Wong in the saddle last start and get’s another 10 Lb’s off today with Jack retaining the ride. That will certainly help as he is up in the weights after that last start performance. But when you look at his overall form this season he has been very consistent and has raced very well over the odds on most occasions. Certainly appeals as good value here at current odds of around the 6/1 mark.
Race 7: — Time: 8.00am GMT—Distance: 1400m—Class – Group One
Top Pick: No 9 Multimax
Value Selection: No 11 Thor The Greatest
Exotic Inclusions: No 8 Kynam and No 5 Billante
Race Overview
Multimax is a very improving three year old and has adjusted to the class rise last start. Ran a very nice 4th on that occasion all be it with a very light weight. Has the ability to go close today with a senior hoop in Douglas Whyte in the saddle. Come up with another good draw in gate four and should enjoy a very nice trip from that draw. Thor The Greatest well it does look like they have picked the right time for him to go up in class. Not only does he drop 9 Lbs due to the class rise he also gets a further 10 Lbs off with Jack Wong in the saddle. Will be very close to the pace with that weight and can certainly run a very cheeky race here.
Race 8: — Time: 8.35am GMT—Distance: 1400m—Class 3
Top Pick: No 11 So Caffe
Value Selection: No 2 Red Dancer
Exotic Inclusions: No 9 Supreme Profit and No 8 Colossus
Race Overview
So Caffe has always shown promise but has not broken through this season. Gets his chance today against this lot and comes up with another nice draw today in gate 3 which was what he had last start and closed off very well and was not far off the winner on that occasion. Has not got great early gate speed but will be getting home hard late and he has Joao Moreira in the saddle as well today. Red Dancer is a good performer over this distance at this class having won twice this season over the Sha Tin mile. Was working home well again last start from a wide gate. Gets in closer today and retains his last start hoop. Can certainly get in the finish here once again today at nice each way odds.
Race 9: — Time: 9.10am GMT—Distance: 2000m—Class – HKG1
Top Pick: No 1 Key Witness
Value Selection: No 9 Lang Tai Sing
Exotic Inclusions: No 4 Teofilo Calvo and No 11 Supreme Falcon / No 12 Lovely Delovely
Race Overview
Key Witness is a very good on paced runner but will most likely be taken back today from the wide gate due to the early inside pace in this race. Four year old who is really showing his form with a very nice win at Class one last start. Back to class two today and carries a similar weight to what he won at class two two starts back. Douglas Whyte has been on him on most occasions and sticks with him today. Lang Tai Sing is a nice type and has never been far away and is mostly at nice odds as well. Closed off extremely well from a wide gate last start and was less than 2 lengths away on the post. Different set up today after coming up with the rails draw and should get a very nice trail in the running from that position. Certainly has appeal at each way odds here.
Race 10: — Time: 9.50pm GMT—Distance: 1400m—Class 2
Top Pick: No: 5 Packing Pins
Value Selection: No 12 presidentparamount
Exotic Inclusions: No 13 Mah May Baby and No 4 Secret Weapon / No 1 Big Four
Race Overview
Packing Pins does possess good gate speed and should be eased into a nice slot in the running from gate two. You can forget he went around last start as shortly after the jump he was caught wide and was unable to settle infield and as a result was forced to race four wide for almost the entire trip and yielded ground in the straight. Form prior to that was extremely good and certainly looks up to this with a similar weight today and Joao Moreira in the saddle. Certainly a bit of a puzzle after you take out the on top selection here but we may find a bit of value just the same. Presidentparamount goes up in class after two very good performances at class four. He has drawn wide in gate 12 but does look very well suited at this distance and may very well get a bit more but for today he certainly looks very nice odds and would not have to improve too much to get into the finish here. Open race to finish off the card today.
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