The last rays of summer sun will shine on Caulfield this Saturday, but it’s all about elite autumn racing and the second of the 2yo features of the year – the AUD $1.5 million Ladbrokes Blue Diamond Stakes over 1200m at set weights. We’ve been watching the action at Melbourne Racing Club headquarters carefully in recent weeks, and can report that the track is racing fairly. However, runners turning for home in the back half of the field will still face a tough challenge on a surface that generally favours horses on the speed and off the fence.
Colts and geldings have won 28 of the 46 editions of the Blue Diamonds including the past two (Pride Of Dubai and Extreme Choice). In the past decade, that figure closes to 6-4 in favour of the boys. The speed and class of this field make outside barriers a tough prospect. Of the past 34 winners, 24 have jumped from a single figure gate with only four winners since 2000 starting from outside barrier 10 – Extreme Choice (2016, gate 11), Earthquake (2014, 15), Star Witness (2010, 14) and Nadeem (2006, 12).
Magic Man Brings Bag of Tricks Down Under
Punters are spoiled for choice in this year’s Blue Diamond with #13 Catchy a $5 favourite and only a handful of the 17 runners without a realistic chance of victory. Jockey Craig Williams had the choice of riding most of the leading contenders so his decision to go with this Lindsay Park filly must be respected. We’re leery – two of her three were close run affairs while she’s drawn out in barrier 13. Our money will be on the #1 Property for trainer Robert Smerdon (chasing his second Blue Diamond) with superstar Hong Kong hoop Joao Moreira taking the ride from barrier 3. This will be the Magic Man’s first trip to Caulfield but he’s familiar with Aussie tracks and tactics so that’s no concern. Not in the original nominations, connections paid the $55,000 late entry fee for their Starcraft colt. Beaten by Catchy on debut, he’s since won both the Blue Diamond Preview (1000m) before settling midfield and finishing strongly to take out the Blue Diamond Prelude (1100m). A price of $7.50 is currently available on Ladbrokes, which could improve by race time.
Crème to Rise to the Top in Saturday’s Other G1s
There are two other Groups 1s at Caulfield on Saturday – in the $500,000 italktravel Futurity Stakes (1400m at WFA), #1 Black Heart Bart will start in the red as he chases successive G1 wins at this track. In contrast, the $500,000 Resimax Group Oakleigh Plate (1100m) is a wide open affair but we wouldn’t be surprised to see last year’s Blue Diamond winner #3 Extreme Choice saluting once again – Mick Price’s 3yo colt looks slightly overs at $4.60 with William Hill.
North of the border, the G1 $600,000 TAB Chipping Norton Stakes (1600m) is the day’s feature at Royal Randwick. The market for this WFA event is once again stifled by the presence of the superstar mare #9 Winx. She’s at $1.12 on Sportsbet to make it 15 wins in a row. That’s right, 15! Winx crushed the bulk of this field in the G2 Apollo (1400m) here two weeks ago and again looks simply unbeatable. Our money will be with stablemate #8 Endless Drama to again fill a place after his meritorious third in the Apollo.
Betfair:
Bet on Henrik Stenson to become the BMW PGA Championship Winner.
Paddypower:
Back Australia to take the Ashes home with them.
Betway:
Back Rafael Nadal to become the Mens French Open Winner.
Coral:
Back One For Arthur to win the Grand National.
Bet365:
Back Mexico to win the Confederations Cup.
